Orioles sign Chris Owings

[waroriole]

10 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

It appears that the Orioles are looking at Gutierrez, Owings and Nevin at 3B mostly this spring. I expect Gutierrez to start the year as the 3B and Owings to make it as a utility, especially with the 28-man roster to start the year. Nevin may share some 3B time with Bannon at 3B in Norfolk. 

Eww that’s pretty rough. What would you need to see from Nevin and Bannon at Norfolk to think they should get a shot in Baltimore? They were both sub .700 OPS last year and aren’t solid defensively. I get we don’t have many people that are major league ready, but neither guy has shown he can hit at an acceptable level in the minors. I don’t get how they keep getting opportunities. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Look, every once in a while a guy comes out of nowhere.  It’s not impossible and I would rather he get the third base at bats vs anyone on the team or in the organization that is close to or ML ready.(this is until Westburg and/or Henderson push their way up here this year)

But there isn’t much reason to believe he is all of a sudden going to start to hit.

He had over 2200 at bats in the minors and his career OPS is 741 and he never had an 800 OPS at any level.

I understand that.  But .741 is WAY above .615.   Years ago, I did a very back of the envelope study of how MiL OPS relates to major league OPS.   As I recall, on average the differential was about 35-50 points.   There’s a ton of variation, and you have to consider what age a player was at various levels, etc.  But you wouldn’t expect a .741 minor leaguer to hit only .615 in the majors.   You’d hope for .690-.705.   With pretty good defense, that wouldn’t be the worst 3B in the world.   So I’m hoping Gutierrez’s recent success might put him in that ballpark, at least.   Modest hopes for a decent placeholder until someone better comes along.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

Eww that’s pretty rough. What would you need to see from Nevin and Bannon at Norfolk to think they should get a shot in Baltimore? They were both sub .700 OPS last year and aren’t solid defensively. I get we don’t have many people that are major league ready, but neither guy has shown he can hit at an acceptable level in the minors. I don’t get how they keep getting opportunities. 

I don't expect much from either guy since I don't think either is much of a prospect. but I do like Westburg, Henderson and especially Mayo. Gutierrez can hold the fort.

[interloper]

I'm kind of rooting for Nevin to be like a slightly below league average hitter this year. He makes loud contact on occasion and doesn't give the impression that he's in over his head at the plate. The hits just don't happen often enough yet. But I think he could be like a Renato Nuñez type if it starts to click for him. Right now though he's more a Brandon Snyder type. 

[waroriole]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't expect much from either guy since I don't think either is much of a prospect. but I do like Westburg, Henderson and especially Mayo. Gutierrez can hold the fort.

Yeah that’s my thought too. At least Gutierrez does something good, so you can live with the poor bat.

I think SS/3B and SP is where Elias could’ve done something. There’s no IF prospects that are knocking on the door this year and plenty of holes in the starting rotation. 

[Sports Guy]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

I understand that.  But .741 is WAY above .615.   Years ago, I did a very back of the envelope study of how MiL OPS relates to major league OPS.   As I recall, on average the differential was about 35-50 points.   There’s a ton of variation, and you have to consider what age a player was at various levels, etc.  But you wouldn’t expect a .741 minor leaguer to hit only .615 in the majors.   You’d hope for .690-.705.   With pretty good defense, that wouldn’t be the worst 3B in the world.   So I’m hoping Gutierrez’s recent success might put him in that ballpark, at least.   Modest hopes for a decent placeholder until someone better comes along.  

The idea that you are a 700 OPS proves my point.  They should have upgraded the spot.

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The idea that you are a 700 OPS proves my point.  They should have upgraded the spot.

I’m not going to disagree with you on this.  I was in favor of some bigger infield upgrades than Odor and Owings.  But at this point, I’m just focused on hoping we get decent outcomes from the players we have to choose from.  Gutierrez managed to be worth 0.8 rWAR in 47 games despite his .663 OPS, because his defense in that span was outstanding.  I’m guessing over a larger sample his defense won’t be as good as last year, but his offense will be a little better.   So is it reasonable to hope for 1.5 - 2.5 rWAR from him?   That’s not earth-shattering, but considering that Franco was worth -1.6 rWAR last year, that would still be a nice upgrade.   

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

I’m not going to disagree with you on this.  I was in favor of some bigger infield upgrades than Odor and Owings.  But at this point, I’m just focused on hoping we get decent outcomes from the players we have to choose from.  Gutierrez managed to be worth 0.8 rWAR in 47 games despite his .663 OPS, because his defense in that span was outstanding.  I’m guessing over a larger sample his defense won’t be as good as last year, but his offense will be a little better.   So is it reasonable to hope for 1.5 - 2.5 rWAR from him?   That’s not earth-shattering, but considering that Franco was worth -1.6 rWAR last year, that would still be a nice upgrade.   

If they get anything over a 1 WAR out of him, that should be considered a win.  It doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have upgraded the spot but it does mean that they got value out of the decision they made.

 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If they get anything over a 1 WAR out of him, that should be considered a win.  It doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have upgraded the spot but it does mean that they got value out of the decision they made.

 

Agreed.   

[Moose Milligan]

I'd like to see if Gutierrez can still keep that level of defense that we saw from him last year at third.  Who we trot out there is of no consequence unless they're going to have someone they identify as a future cornerstone there.  

[interloper]

7 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'd like to see if Gutierrez can still keep that level of defense that we saw from him last year at third.  Who we trot out there is of no consequence unless they're going to have someone they identify as a future cornerstone there.  

I like Gutierrez, and not just because he hit the walkoff today. He plays good D, has a canon for an arm, and they've been working with him on his swing which seems to be improving. He's infinitely more interesting than Odor. Freaking Chris Owings is more interesting than Odor. I might even venture to say he's more interesting than Rylan Bannon. There I said it. 

I'm team Guti. 

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

I like Gutierrez, and not just because he hit the walkoff today. He plays good D, has a canon for an arm, and they've been working with him on his swing which seems to be improving. He's infinitely more interesting than Odor. Freaking Chris Owings is more interesting than Odor. I might even venture to say he's more interesting than Rylan Bannon. There I said it. 

I'm team Guti. 

Given the options, I prefer Gutierrez, too.  

The only reason I'm 50/50 on Odor is because he decked Bautista a few years ago.  Hard to hate on a guy like that.

[interloper]

46 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Given the options, I prefer Gutierrez, too.  

The only reason I'm 50/50 on Odor is because he decked Bautista a few years ago.  Hard to hate on a guy like that.

He will always have a place in my heart for that, yes.