What is Elias' plan to contend and what should it be?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

It's your OPINION, not a fact. The higher the draft picks, particularly the top five picks the higher the chances of hitting on a impact guy. Spreading that money out has allowed them to get guys for overslot who have looked pretty good so far.  That's a fact.

We get it, you think the Orioles could have spent a bunch of money and finished with 70 wins the last few years and still think they would have five players in the top 100. I find it highly unlikely. BTW, Henderson also got higher than slot to sign. 

Is it possible to draft well lower in the draft, sure. But at the end of the day, that's the direction he went with. what we don't know was whether hat was by his design or because of the budget he was given to operate with as he rebuilt the organization from the ground up. 

Look, Elias has made some mistakes already. Keeping several players including Isaac Matson over Zach Pop was an unforced error on his part, but it's too early to judge him on whether he can build a consistent winner.

At this point, it is what it is and no use gnashing our teeth over the awful records that have made the franchise a laughing stock. 

What I'm personally focused on is the future and the minor league system makes me feel good about it. Would signing Correa make us all feel better, sure, but again, the Orioles have no and probably will never win a bidding war on THE BEST free agent on the market. 

Could they? Sure, they should be able to. But then again MASN should be sending their reporters on the road and broadcasting every home game in spring training, but here we are and we don't know whether they will do anything.

So in other words, Elias is operating with the budget and with the owners that he got. Taking it out on him when we don't know his operational budget seems unfair to me.

 

No, it’s a fact that you don’t have to lose to build a good farm system.  You are completely wrong to say that’s an opinion.  Lots of really good teams have good farm systems every year.  

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

I don't think they are losing on purpose any longer.  But there is a difference between losing on purpose and spending before it's smart to do so.  They should NOT be gunning for the top draft slots any longer, but I don't think we've reached the point of buying high priced FA yet either.  We are in the uncomfortable adolescent stage where we are no longer a child farm system but we aren't quite ready to take the wheel and drive for the playoffs yet.  Doesn't make a great deal of sense to buy a 13 year old a new car when it's going to sit around largely unused for 3 years before the kid is ready to drive.  Next year I hope we turn 16 and can see about buying some new flashy toys.  Yeah, I know the market isn't as good, but I get that now isn't the time to buy either.

They are absolutely losing on purpose this year.  They may bring up their better players but they aren’t making an effort to field a good team.  They aren’t making trades or signing players of significance.  It’s the same types of moves we have seen the last few years.

The only difference is maybe the young guys they bring up can be better than the ones they have already brought up.

Its also foolish to say they aren’t ready to make big moves.  You don’t have to wait to make your team better in the short and long term.

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, it’s a fact that you don’t have to lose to build a good farm system.  You are completely wrong to say that’s an opinion.  Lots of really good teams have good farm systems every year.  

I will agree that it is a fact in your black and white world of Rob's opinion. 

Sure, you can draft well without high draft picks, but it's harder and having that extra money certainly helps. 

[geschinger]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But again, teams with lower slot pools sign overslots every year.  If only the teams at the top of the draft did it, your argument would have merit but it doesn’t.

And again, maybe they don’t come away with Haskin and Servideo.  Ok.  Maybe they draft 2 UTI players who sign for next to nothing in those slots.  So be it.

I would rather see a 75-80 win team going somewhere and end up with Kjerstad/Veen, Baumler and Mayo than a sh!t team with those guys plus Haskin and Servideo.  

You aren't getting Kjerstad/Veen, Westburg, Baumler and Mayo if you are limited to $8.5m (bonus pool of 75 win Red team as point of comparison) instead of having $13.8m available (108 loss Oriole team) 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I will agree that it is a fact in your black and white world of Rob's opinion. 

Sure, you can draft well without high draft picks, but it's harder and having that extra money certainly helps. 

Lots of things help.  Being smart, having an Intl program, scouting correctly, etc….and sure, drafting higher helps.  But you don’t have to draft high to build a system properly.

Thats an inarguably fact.  
 

Now, you will say well the Os didn’t do things properly for years, so it was harder for them.  Ok.  Well first of all, some of that is the Intl stuff.  That literally has nothing to do with winning and losing.  You don’t need to suck to build that up.  You just have to do it.

You also have trades.  The Os didn’t have anyone of significance to trade but they traded as much as they could.

So, that leaves the draft.  Again, ranking early is fine.  You end up with the 2020 draft as is.  2019 is there because you sucked when you weren’t trying to.  I would argue that they should have tried to be a better team in 2021 but do agree that COVID issues hurt them some, especially pitching wise.  Adley would have been up for most of 2021 if 2020 was normal too.  So, you get a high pick this year because of it.

No excuse anymore.  The team on the field this year should have been a team that, on paper (ie, not by some miracle) is a 75+ win team while still looking beyond 2022 and not making dumb moves to block guys or overspend on several players, etc…it should/could have been an exciting team that is on the cusp.

Instead, it’s garbage again.  We are still talking about too many AAAA players on the team.  We are still talking about too many go nowhere vets on the team.  That shouldn’t be the case anymore.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, geschinger said:

You aren't getting Kjerstad/Veen, Westburg, Baumler and Mayo if you are limited to $8.5m (bonus pool of 75 win Red team as point of comparison) instead of having $13.8m available (108 loss Oriole team) 

Wow..haven’t seen you in forever, good to see you on here.

The Rockies had a draft pool of 10.3M in 2020.  They drafted 9th.  The Orioles spent 10.7M on those players.

I think they end up with the same or awfully close.

And again, I’m not upset with the 2020 draft positions.  They should have tanked in 2019.  However, overslot guys would have been there and the opportunity to sign and draft them would have been there if they drafted a little later.  
 

Those opportunities are always there.  Every team could have taken Baumler or Mayo multiple times.  Us drafting high didn’t cause those players to be available.  Elias just did a better job at getting them to commit.  He did a better job of communicating with their people to make sure they would sign.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Tony, Are the Orioles the only team that signs overslot guys?  Are they the only team taking advantage of that?

Are the only teams that sign overslot guys the teams that draft high?

And btw, I’m not saying it doesn’t help.  I’m saying it’s not needed to build a good farm system.  I’m saying that losing on purpose isn’t need to build a good farm system.  That’s not an opinion.  That’s a fact.  

The more money you are allowed to spend, and the higher the picks are, the easier it is to build a good farm system.  It’s not impossible to build one without those things, it’s just harder and takes longer.   Do you dispute that?

We have a very good farm system now.   Still a bit lacking in depth since our international pipeline will only begin reaching full season ball this year.   We are still 2-3 years away from having the international pipeline fully loaded throughout the minors.   

I’m not suggesting we are 2-3 years away from being able to trade from our farm system.   But I don’t think we are in a big hurry to do that right now, or should be.   
 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

The more money you are allowed to spend, and the higher the picks are, the easier it is to build a good farm system.  It’s not impossible to build one without those things, it’s just harder and takes longer.   Do you dispute that?

We have a very good farm system now.   Still a bit lacking in depth since our international pipeline will only begin reaching full season ball this year.   We are still 2-3 years away from having the international pipeline fully loaded throughout the minors.   

I’m not suggesting we are 2-3 years away from being able to trade from our farm system.   But I don’t think we are in a big hurry to do that right now, or should be.   
 

Yea I dispute that.  What evidence supports it?

And by that I mean, sure if you can take the higher ranked guys, your system can get better quicker.  (Although some of that is based on hype and rankings, which means it’s bs in a lot of ways)

But the good teams can replenish and build quickly.  Not that long ago, the Yanks system was mediocre..now it’s one of the best.  The Dodgers are always up and down because of trades and promotions but they get right back up.  The Braves are down now.  I bet they are 10-15 spots higher than they are right now within 2 years. These teams are always churning out very good talent and doing it when drafting lower.

 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

But the good teams can replenish and build quickly.  Not that long ago, the Yanks system was mediocre..now it’s one of the best.  The Dodgers are always up and down because of trades and promotions but they get right back up.  The Braves are down now.  I bet they are 10-15 spots higher than they are right now within 2 years. These teams are always churning out very good talent and doing it when drafting lower.

 

How much of these rankings are based on where they picked in the draft vs. someone like Jasson Dominguez, who, IIRC, wasn't picked in the draft and other international signings?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

How much of these rankings are based on where they picked in the draft vs. someone like Jasson Dominguez, who, IIRC, wasn't picked in the draft and other international signings?

It is because of their intl signings but so what?  That’s the point.  There are lots of ways to build a good farm system and losing on purpose isn’t needed to do it.

I don’t even understand why people are pushing back on this.  It’s not like I’m coming up with some crazy opinion that I can’t support.  This is just a fact. 

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It is because of their intl signings but so what?  That’s the point.  There are lots of ways to build a good farm system and losing on purpose isn’t needed to do it.

I don’t even understand why people are pushing back on this.  It’s not like I’m coming up with some crazy opinion that I can’t support.  This is just a fact. 

I think it's hilarious when you get outraged that people question you and you act like you're the only sane one here and everyone else is crazy.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think it's hilarious when you get outraged that people question you and you act like you're the only sane one here and everyone else is crazy.  

People are crazy if they think losing for several years is the only way to build a long term winner and that it’s the only way to build a really good farm system.

People are crazy for supporting a garbage product again in 2022.  The excuses are hilarious.  What happens if this arm issue for Adley turns into TJ and Grayson struggles this year some?  And what if Stowers turns into a pumpkin and Mullins is a 2.5 WAR guy?  Will we be in position to go for it in 2023?  Or will we need to wait more?  

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Eh, I suppose it is.  I'm just not getting angry at the Orioles anymore for being stupid, not willing to spend money, etc.  Like I said, you can't get mad at water for being wet.  

There are an awful lot of days where I think the only purpose of sports is to teach people to deal with failure and disappointment.  If we counted the number of days in the last 20 years that we were happy with the Orioles they would be outnumbered by disappointment at least 30:1, at least if you're talking about current results and not some vague feeling of optimism about two years from now.  I'm not even sure 2012 and 2014 were much over half.

[Moose Milligan]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

People are crazy if they think losing for several years is the only way to build a long term winner and that it’s the only way to build a really good farm system.

People are crazy for supporting a garbage product again in 2022.  The excuses are hilarious.  What happens if this arm issue for Adley turns into TJ and Grayson struggles this year some?  And what if Stowers turns into a pumpkin and Mullins is a 2.5 WAR guy?  Will we be in position to go for it in 2023?  Or will we need to wait more?  

I've yet to see anyone say on here that we have to lose for several years in order to build a long term winner.  I've seen comparisons to Houston, but that's all they are...comparisons.  I don't think I've actually seen anyone advocating for this team to lose for years on end to build a really good farm system.

I have seen people acknowledge that the team will suck, that they will likely lose 100 games and if so, well, go all in on the tank.  IMO, that's just being realistic with where the team is.  I've seen people advocate for tanking down the stretch to get the #1 pick and I've got no real issues with that. 

Crazy for supporting a garbage product again in 2022?  Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't you start a thread on how they're handling Opening Day tickets?  You're not seriously going to support this garbage product by gracing OPACY with your presence, are you?  

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There are an awful lot of days where I think the only purpose of sports is to teach people to deal with failure and disappointment. 

 

100%.