2022 Ongoing Lineup Thread

[spiritof66]

On 8/14/2022 at 1:38 PM, Il BuonO said:

What the heck is the ever-loving fascination with Tyler Nevin??? Does he have dirt on both Hyde and Elias? 

Lack of concern about starting his clock toward free agency. That's the common denominator between him Vavra. Guys with more potential have to wait so their clocks don't run before 2023, which apparently when the Oriole domination starts.

I guess I understand it, but it's a hell of a way to make a run at a WC spot: Brett Phillips and the lower echelon of AAA guys who might be able to succeed in the bigs.

[Fiver6565]

57 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

PATHETIC AGAIN

C'mon, why is McKenna leading off?   Put Mateo there!  Why's Vavra 8th?

Nevin, seriously?  I never thought I'd be pining for the days of DJ Stewart but holy fried ****, I'd take Stewart over him no problem.  Even though Stewart is a lefty, I'd rather see him tonight vs. Kikuchi as a DH over Nevin.

I don't typically get uppity over lineups but these past two days are terrible.

I agree. Don’t normally moan about these but leading off McKenna is inexplicable. And don’t quote me his OPS against lefties. That’s a fine reason to play him in some of these games, but not to lead him off. 

[Fiver6565]

I will say that if Nevin is going to use up a roster spot, he has to be in the lineup against this pitcher.  If he’s not than you might as well be carrying 25 players. 

Edited August 15, 2022 by Fiver6565

[Fiver6565]

All of this being said, I’m just thrilled that I care about a lineup at all on 8/15. 

[dtk9119]

4 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

I will say that if Nebin is going to use up a roster spot, he has to be in the lineup against this pitcher.  If he’s not than you might as well be carrying 25 players. 

True but that's part of the point -- why is he still on the roster. I used to ignore the service clock conspiracies but after the last 2 days I think my switch has flipped. What the heck was ME watching the last 2 days? If that was not enough to make a move... I am starting to think they are just hoping to ride this out for 2 more weeks and then just bring up the AAAers in Sept when it wont start the clock.

[ChuckS]

59 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Even if Stowers or Stewart were up, they wouldn't be starting over Nevin vs the lefty  tonight.   We have 8 righties in the lineup.

I would absolutely expect Stowers to start over Nevin, even against a lefty. His splits are not bad. 

[SteveA]

5 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I would absolutely expect Stowers to start over Nevin, even against a lefty. His splits are not bad. 

Against a lefty with Kikuchi's splits, which are 200 points different vs LH than RH for his career?   

I don't agree.

[jdwilde1]

4 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Kikuchi for his MLB career, .850 OPS vs RH batters, .637 vs LH.   

Cedric Mullins for his MLB career .646 OPS vs LH, .822 vs RH.

Anyone whining about Cedric not being in the lineup is ignoring thousands of at bats worth of numbers just so they can act outraged and throw a temper tantrum.

And in his brief small sample size major league career, Tyler Nevin has a .830 OPS vs LH and a .476 vs RH.   
In AAA this year .738 vs LH, .677 vs RH.   In AAA last year, .765 vs LH, .681 vs LH.  

I think there are far better choices to be on the 26 man roster than Nevin, iike most people do.   But the whiny crying about him being in the lineup tonight and Mullins not being in the lineup is just emotional BS.   Any logical examination of the numbers indicates it is a smart move.

Since dropping switch hitting Cedric Mullins has a career .699 OPS against left handed pitchers  as a left  handed batter (415 plate appearances).  In comparison, and over the same period, Ryan McKenna has a career .606 OPS against left handed pitchers (134 plate appearances).   With that said, McKenna is killing left handed pitchers this year (.293/.356/.512) while Mullins has struggled against them (.208/.270/.299) so it’s tough to argue with McKenna getting the start. 

Regarding Nevin, he should not be in the lineup or on the roster.  Also, outside of his MLB splits (76 PAs v. LHP and 117 PAs v. RHP), he has not demonstrated an ability to hit left handers significantly better than righties (a little bit better in ‘21 and ‘22, but not enough to draw a meaningful conclusion given the delta and sample size).  In fact, going back to ‘19 Nevin put up a .287 SLG and .620 OPS against lefties and a .792 OPS against righties.  I know ‘19 is a lifetime ago for young ball players, but it’s the last season before ‘21, and I think it’s worth noting in the discussion of whether Nevin should be getting starts against anyone.   

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Ryan McKenna CF
Adley Rutschman C
Anthony Santander RF
Ryan Mountcastle 1B
Ramón Urías 3B
Austin Hays LF
Jorge Mateo SS
Terrin Vavra 2B
Tyler Nevin DH

 

Please move Adley to 3rd in the order and bat Vavra #2

I like Adley #2.  I always thought the lineup gurus said your best hitter should hit 2nd.  I would say Vavra #1, but I think Mullins will bat 1st most games as long as he is on the team.  Wouldn't mind Vavra 3rd, Santander 4th and push Mountcastle to 5th.

Mullins

Adley

Vavra

Santander

Mountcastle

Hays

Urias

Odor

Mateo

 

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I like Adley #2.  I always thought the lineup gurus said your best hitter should hit 2nd.  I would say Vavra #1, but I think Mullins will bat 1st most games as long as he is on the team.  Wouldn't mind Vavra 3rd, Santander 4th and push Mountcastle to 5th.

Mullins

Adley

Vavra

Santander

Mountcastle

Hays

Urias

Odor

Mateo

 

I think Adley would get more pitches to hit with one or both of Vavra and Mullins on base.

[SteveA]

1 minute ago, jdwilde1 said:

Since dropping switch hitting Cedric Mullins has a career .699 OPS against left handed pitchers  as a left  handed batter (415 plate appearances).  In comparison, and over the same period, Ryan McKenna has a career .606 OPS against left handed pitchers (134 plate appearances).   With that said, McKenna is killing left handed pitchers this year (.293/.356/.512) while Mullins has struggled against them (.208/.270/.299) so it’s tough to argue with McKenna getting the start. 

Regarding Nevin, he should not be in the lineup or on the roster.  Also, outside of his MLB splits (76 PAs v. LHP and 117 PAs v. RHP), he has not demonstrated an ability to hit left handers significantly better than righties (a little bit better in ‘21 and ‘22, but not enough to draw a meaningful conclusion given the delta and sample size).  In fact, going back to ‘19 Nevin put up a .287 SLG and .620 OPS against lefties and a .792 OPS against righties.  I know ‘19 is a lifetime ago for young ball players, but it’s the last season before ‘21, and I think it’s worth noting in the discussion of whether Nevin should be getting starts against anyone.   

I'll just say that Kikuchi is not just "a lefthander".   He is a lefthander with an EXTREME platoon differential (230 points over his whole career).   That does affect the equation significantly.   Looking at some random veteran lefties around the league right now, and not cherrypicking really good ones like say Kershaw who wouldn't have lasted this long and been this good with an extreme differential like that:   Marco Gonzales has a 23 point platoon difference in OPS vs LH/vs RH.   Framber Valdez 49 points.   Robbie Ray 116.   Max Fried 6 points.  Alex Wood 94 points.    The only one I could find who even approached Kikuchi was Martin Perez at 162, and that's still 68 points less.

So when making a lineup vs Kikuchi, you are not just asking who should I start vs a lefty.   You are asking who should I start vs an extremely unbalanced split lefty who makes RH batters over 200 OPS points better just for stepping up at the plate.

I agree Nevin shouldn't be on the roster.   But he is and probably should be starting tonight based on the composition of the roster. 

I'm willing to die on that hill.

[ChuckS]

15 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Against a lefty with Kikuchi's splits, which are 200 points different vs LH than RH for his career?   

I don't agree.

So you feel Stowers is a platoon player? Not good enough to play over a guy who doesn’t belong on a Major League roster when a lefty is on the mound?

Most lefty throwers are better against left handed batters because most left handed hitters have dramatic platoon splits. Stowers doesn’t have those kind of splits. 

[SteveA]

Just now, ChuckS said:

So you feel Stowers is a platoon player? Not good enough to play over a guy who doesn’t belong on a Major League roster when a lefty is on the mound?

Most lefty throwers are better against left handed batters because most left handed hitters have dramatic platoon splits. Stowers doesn’t have those kind of splits. 

See my post just above yours.    Kikuch is not just "a lefty ".

[jdwilde1]

12 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I'll just say that Kikuchi is not just "a lefthander".   He is a lefthander with an EXTREME platoon differential (230 points over his whole career).   That does affect the equation significantly.   Looking at some random veteran lefties around the league right now, and not cherrypicking really good ones like say Kershaw who wouldn't have lasted this long and been this good with an extreme differential like that:   Marco Gonzales has a 23 point platoon difference in OPS vs LH/vs RH.   Framber Valdez 49 points.   Robbie Ray 116.   Max Fried 6 points.  Alex Wood 94 points.    The only one I could find who even approached Kikuchi was Martin Perez at 162, and that's still 68 points less.

So when making a lineup vs Kikuchi, you are not just asking who should I start vs a lefty.   You are asking who should I start vs an extremely unbalanced split lefty who makes RH batters over 200 OPS points better just for stepping up at the plate.

I agree Nevin shouldn't be on the roster.   But he is and probably should be starting tonight based on the composition of the roster. 

I'm willing to die on that hill.

You convinced me.  I looked a little closer at the numbers and I agree that Nevin should be in the starting lineup tonight given the make-up of the active roster.  It’s really a question of Mullins or Nevin.  Given Mullins’s significant struggles against lefties this year and Kikuchi’s splits it makes sense.  With that said, Nevin should probably be replaced as soon as Kukuchis is removed.  Also, it highlights the lack of hitting depth this team has since Mancini was traded (and there wasn’t much depth before the trade). 

[RZNJ]

I think the odds are pretty favorable that Nevin is the player of the game tonight.   Has to be.