Comparing the 2020 and 2022 Orioles to date (both 25-35)

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I don't think Elias slow played Mountcastle (or at least not in the way you mean), I don't think Elias thought Mountcastle could play defense, and I don't think he's a fan of his offensive approach. As to Grayson, he was always starting the year at Triple A, going to each minor league level seems to be something that is important to Elias. 

I think that if a guy wins the AAA MVP as a prospect most times he gets a September Callup, at least back when the rosters were huge.

I think when that player not only doesn't get a callup but doesn't make the team the next spring, something fishy is going on.

If he really wasn't a fan of him as a player why not trade him?

Why is he still on the roster?

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that if a guy wins the AAA MVP as a prospect most times he gets a September Callup, at least back when the rosters were huge.

I think when that player not only doesn't get a callup but doesn't make the team the next spring, something fishy is going on.

If he really wasn't a fan of him as a player why not trade him?

Why is he still on the roster?

But who really gives a sh1t?

That was three years ago.  It has absolutely no bearing on today.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

But who really gives a sh1t?

That was three years ago.  It has absolutely no bearing on today.

Well I was directly asked by seak05 so I guess they care?

I'm not sure why you think his past actions might not have a bearing on his future actions.  That seems like faulty reasoning.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Good research.

I have a little different conclusion. We're four years into Elias's rebuild and the major league team is no better and there are not a ton of guys on the cusp that will be impact players to make the team better. Without significant FA signings, I'm not sure I see the core that's going to make this team a contender anytime soon.

Yeah, this is just way too negative for me.

For one, the major league team is better.  The 2020 team was a small sample fluke, propped up by a bunch of older guys who weren't instrumental to the future.

The improvement in the 2022 team is almost solely driven by guys who factor into the future.

And the idea that nobody is on the cusp to help improve more is overstatement.  Adley just got here.  He's not even hitting 200 yet.  The Grod injury sucks, but the man didn't die.  He should be impacting wins and losses by April at the latest.  Hall probably gets up this summer.  Stowers, Henderson, and Westburg are all at AAA.

The fruits of the rebuild haven't even reached the majors with the exception of 3 weeks of Adley Rutschman.

Now the core of your point- Is this going to be enough to return to contention in 24 months?- is unknowable.

I'm certain we'll have to add to the team from outside the organization.  I'm not certain that is going to take the form of top of the market FA signings.

 

[Pickles]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Well I was directly asked by seak05 so I guess they care?

I'm not sure why you think his past actions might not have a bearing on his future actions.  That seems like faulty reasoning.

If you think Mountcastle's September 2019 experience has a lot of bearing on the futures of Rodriguez and Hall, I guess more power to you.  I don't.

But further, even it did, it doesn't matter.  Returning to contention isn't going to be materially affected by so-and-so debuting two weeks or two months earlier than they actually do.

It's a pointless talking point that is beaten into the ground over and over again, in every thread possible, even this one where there's no relation to the OP.

If Mountcastle had appeared in MLB in September 2019 would it affect the standing of the team today?

No, not at all.

If Rutschman had debuted last August would it affect the standing of the team today?

No, not at all.

If Henderson does/or does not get a September call up this year, will it affect the standing of the team in summer of 2023?

No, not at all.

So I repeat: Who really gives a sh1t? 

[seak05]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Well I was directly asked by seak05 so I guess they care?

I'm not sure why you think his past actions might not have a bearing on his future actions.  That seems like faulty reasoning.

Past actions do matter, and you cited Mountcastle as an example, I disagreed with your assessment of the situation 

(and I actually think Elias would trade Mountcastle if he got a return, as a cost controlled player Mountcastle does have some value, and I don't think Elias is going to give him away) 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Past actions do matter, and you cited Mountcastle as an example, I disagreed with your assessment of the situation 

(and I actually think Elias would trade Mountcastle if he got a return, as a cost controlled player Mountcastle does have some value, and I don't think Elias is going to give him away) 

So why do you think he wasn't added to the roster that fall?

If he needed work on his defense or approach wouldn't it make more sense to call him up so he could work on it rather than send him home?

I don't recall them having a 40 man roster crunch.

And yes, I think Elias, like any GM, would trade a player for the proper return.  But that fact that he hasn't been able to find an acceptable return indicates to me that he hasn't been looking to trade him, which would further indicate to me that he doesn't value him less than the industry as a whole.

[Tony-OH]

I get the responses, I really do. 

As fans, your expectations is that every player coming up from the minors will be impact players.

I do think there is some talent, but I stand by what I said. This team is still terrible. It's terrible with the most of the core guys healthy and playing. 

Let's say Rodriguez is healthy and pitching next year, great, what is Elias going to do, let him pitch 100 innings? What year will he be allowed to get to 180-200? 2024? Maybe.

I'll play fan and assume Rodriguez will be an impact TOR starter. 

Ok, who else is in the rotation from the system or currently? Means (TJ surgery and will be over 30), are you assuming Hall is in this rotation? When will he be allowed to get to 180-200 IP? Bradish? What makes you think he's a starter longterm? 

Henderson to me is an IMPACT level prospect, but who else? Stowers? Ok, I like him and think he has a chance of being better than Santander, but how much better? Westburg, ok, he's hitting well of late but his career AA numbers aren't impressive, but let's say he's Urias replacement. Look at Urias numbers last year, is that what he will do? The Orioles were still a last place team.

This team needs a significant change in it's core. 

I know a lot of fans are excited or down based off the last game and sure the Orioles came back and won yesterday and Adley had three hits, so some of you are all on board again.

Do I think the organization is better than it was in 2020? Perhaps. Do I think they are on the cusp of being a contender, I do not. 

With the news of the Angelos infighting, there is not going to be any big money being spent this offseason. So how does this team compete unless every single prospect in AA or AAA hits their 90th percentile of their potential?

Look at the talent in our very division. Look at the talent it takes to be a real contender. Show me how this core does that without significant investment in free agents, investment that I doubt happens until the team is sold.

 

[RZNJ]

First, find more than a few people who think the current team is anything but bad.  Next, find more than a few who said they were on the cusp of contending.  

[seak05]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

Look at the talent in our very division. Look at the talent it takes to be a real contender. Show me how this core does that without significant investment in free agents, investment that I doubt happens until the team is sold.

 

Tony I get what you're saying, and maybe it's just my fan goggles, but in looking at the Rays line-up, I don't think the Orioles are that much worse? Assuming Adley adjusts to the ML level. The IF needs improvement but if Gunnar and Westburg are both solid major league players, then that fills 2 out of your 3 biggest needs

[Pushmonkey]

Just like in politics it’s the economy stupid when it comes to re-election. It’s the pitching stupid when it comes to contending.  The is don’t have starting pitching to contend in the AL east. 

[Tony-OH]

35 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Tony I get what you're saying, and maybe it's just my fan goggles, but in looking at the Rays line-up, I don't think the Orioles are that much worse? Assuming Adley adjusts to the ML level. The IF needs improvement but if Gunnar and Westburg are both solid major league players, then that fills 2 out of your 3 biggest needs

I think our lineup will be ok, but I just don't see the starting pitching and FA starting pitching is expensive.

Maybe Elias will be able to trade prospects for pitching, but he yet to show the ability to get major league ready value for his trades or really, get good returns on the talent he traded away.

If I thought this team had good ownership and would spend, I'd feel better. I just don't think the money will be there now with all the infighting going on. 

 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, waroriole said:

Disagree on the “not a ton of guys on the cusp” line. Grayson, Hall, Henderson, Westburg, Stowers should all be in Baltimore this time next year. If this team as currently constructed is a 65-70 win team, adding those guys should have us over .500. A few respectable FA signings and/or trades would make us playoff contenders. 

Ok, let's say all of those guy hit their 90th percentile and the team is over .500 by your estimation. What makes you think this team is going to just start spending money to get the free agents in or make the trades for the contracts that will get them over the hump? 

Is it the fact that one owner is suing another owner because the other owner stole the franshice from him? Seems to be a ripe situation to see the Orioles start spending money, right?

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Ok, let's say all of those guy hit their 90th percentile and the team is over .500 by your estimation. What makes you think this team is going to just start spending money to get the free agents in or make the trades for the contracts that will get them over the hump? 

Is it the fact that one owner is suing another owner because the other owner stole the franshice from him? Seems to be a ripe situation to see the Orioles start spending money, right?

I was responding to your comment that there aren’t a lot of guys ready to come up. There definitely are. Of course, not everyone will contribute positively. 
 

As far as FA, I don’t think they’ll be signing anyone like Correa, but they can easily add 30-40M in payroll this offseason. If it’s spent wisely, they can contend next year if things go right.  The team probably starts getting a lot of heat if they don’t add payroll and cries of sell the team get louder. 

[Orioles4Life21]

I remember folks here back in 2011 who thought we were still a long way away from contending.

Tony makes some very valid points, especially regarding the Angelos situation, but I just wanted to throw that out there.

Aside from injuries and Adley’s slow start, I’ve been encouraged by what I’ve seen on the field this season. Hope we can take another leap next season.