Former 1st rounder DFA-ed

[Frobby]

To me a fire sale means you’re going to trade the player no matter how poor the return might be, because the team just needs to move on.   That’s not what will be happening here.  

[owknows]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

I think a baseball executive would describe it when a team commits to a rebuild and trade all assets in order to gather chips for the future. It includes salary dumps where you get little in return but don’t care because you are clearing contracts. The Orioles just went through it but Elias really only got to handle phase 2. Waiting too long is just poor management imo … not really a fire sale.what the previous leadership (under a bad and meddling owner) group did with Machado was foolish and just bad decision making.

I don't think we disagree about anything you just said, other than your limited definition of the words "fire sale".

You state that it is exclusively a salary dump.

Whereas I would characterize it as a series of trades wherein a team receives less than a reasonable return on players... reasons for which might include... salary dump.... waiting too long so that you only have a half-year rental to offer... insufficient market interest due to other available players... or just poor decision making.

[owknows]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To me a fire sale means you’re going to trade the player no matter how poor the return might be, because the team just needs to move on.   That’s not what will be happening here.  

We seem to agree...

[Three Run Homer]

If the only justification for a trade in baseball terms is that it saves the organization money, then it's a fire sale.  The Villar trade was a fire sale.  The Jim Johnson trade was a fire sale.  

I don't think the Orioles are going to make that kind of trade this season, but that doesn't mean that the O's won't make a bad trade.  Trading someone who can help win games now for a couple of 17-year old lottery tickets in the DSL (the Cashner trade, for example) was a good idea back in 2019, when the team was in the early rebuilding stage, but it doesn't make sense now, when you have a team that's on the fringe of contention that has an even better chance of contending next season.  

 

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, owknows said:

I don't think we disagree about anything you just said, other than your limited definition of the words "fire sale".

You state that it is exclusively a salary dump.

Whereas I would characterize it as a series of trades wherein a team receives less than a reasonable return on players... reasons for which might include... salary dump.... waiting too long so that you only have a half-year rental to offer... insufficient market interest due to other available players... or just poor decision making.

Not really but ok ….A fire sale in any other industry generally means trading anything not nailed down. Stupidity doesn’t cause a fire sale….just a bad trade. The fire sale is the big picture, not one deal..

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Not really but ok ….A fire sale in any other industry generally means trading anything not nailed down. Stupidity doesn’t cause a fire sale….just a bad trade. The fire sale is the big picture, not one deal..

 

You seem to like to engage in fragmentary argumentation where you selectively ignore much of what is said in order to try to score points.

I said a fire sale is a SERIES OF TRADES yielding an unreasonable return... reasons for which might include... shedding salary... having held players too long... insufficient market interest because of saturation... or poor decision making.

These kinds of trades often involve the last contract years of multiple pending FA players... where a team feels obligated to get something... ANYTHING... rather than simply hold onto the player in a non-contending scenario for no return. So they let them go cheaply.

You really seem to be going the extra mile and then some, for a semantic distinction without merit.

My last comment on the subject.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

 

You seem to like to engage in fragmentary argumentation where you selectively ignore much of what is said in order to try to score points.

I said a fire sale is a SERIES OF TRADES yielding an unreasonable return... reasons for which might include... shedding salary... having held players too long... insufficient market interest because of saturation... or poor decision making.

These kinds of trades often involve the last contract years of multiple pending FA players... where a team feels obligated to get something... ANYTHING... rather than simply hold onto the player in a non-contending scenario for no return. So they let them go cheaply.

You really seem to be going the extra mile and then some, for a semantic distinction without merit.

My last comment on the subject.

The singular blunder was holding Machado too long. Actually worse than that ….not signing him long term. But allowing him to become a rental. IMO it was a bad trade for the O”s but was it a fire sale? Or just the incompetence of the guy selecting the players we received and the team they chose to deal with.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

There is a mountain between a fire sale and being buyers. Moving Trey, Santander, Lopez and another RP for valuable consideration is not a fire sale and not buying. That’s basically what he will probably do based on what he’s said. 

Well, I was being tongue & cheek, agree with what your saying but not sure the return will be worth what I believe Santander’s potential is, he is a guy I would def not move unless return is good. His obp skills have improved so substantially he is going to have a monster season soon imo. 

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Well, I was being tongue & cheek, agree with what your saying but not sure the return will be worth what I believe Santander’s potential is, he is a guy I would def not move unless return is good. His obp skills have improved so substantially he is going to have a monster season soon imo. 

But, Stowers is ready now. His progression is part of the big plan. I no longer expect Elias to move guys without getting value. I think you’d expect him to be asking more for Hays and Mullins. And if they could find another complete catcher you’d like to catch Adley 4 days per week and have DH for him to hit the other 3.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, owknows said:

 

You seem to like to engage in fragmentary argumentation where you selectively ignore much of what is said to score points. 

You literally just summed up the hangout : Orioles Endless Arguments Junior High. 

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

The singular blunder was holding Machado too long. Actually worse than that ….not signing him long term. But allowing him to become a rental. IMO it was a bad trade for the O”s but was it a fire sale? Or just the incompetence of the guy selecting the players we received and the team they chose to deal with.

In 2018 the Orioles completed a series of trades.

They traded Zach Britton, Darren O'Day, Kevin Gaussman, Manny Machado, and Johnathan Schoop.

They did so because they conceded the futility of the season at the deadline, and were attempting to initiate a rebuild.

They received 15 players in return. More than half are no longer with the organization.

The greatest value they still hold from that return is Dean Kremer, Bruce Zimmermann. (And a perpetually injured Yusniel Diaz)

 

So to answer your question... yes... the Orioles 2018 trade season most definitely was a textbook fire sale.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

But, Stowers is ready now. His progression is part of the big plan. I no longer expect Elias to move guys without getting value. I think you’d expect him to be asking more for Hays and Mullins. And if they could find another complete catcher you’d like to catch Adley 4 days per week and have DH for him to hit the other 3.

OBP is very very important, you don’t just unload guys like that to bring up an unproven commodity (at ml level) if you are serious about winning. Plus, I think you would be selling low on Santander: I think he is going to have monster seasons in the years ahead. Just my .02. I love Hays but he has an injury history  so might consider moving him too (despite being really good). All depends on package you get for Santander & Hays.  You could always trade Stowers too.

 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

So does anyone think this guy is worth a grab? 

[owknows]

4 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

So does anyone think this guy is worth a grab? 

Seems to have under-performed for a very long time.

[Roll Tide]

8 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

OBP is very very important, you don’t just unload guys like that to bring up an unproven commodity (at ml level) if you are serious about winning. Plus, I think you would be selling low on Santander: I think he is going to have monster seasons in the years ahead. Just my .02. I love Hays but he has an injury history  so might consider moving him too (despite being really good). All depends on package you get for Santander & Hays.  You could always trade Stowers too.

 

Stowers Minor league OBP is around .360 and he’s 24. Santander is 27 and will almost certainly be moved.