Baseball Reference error: postseason odds at 41%

[InsideCoroner]

Baseball Reference almost caused me to spit out my coffee this morning when it said our postseason odds were 41.0%. I have to assume this was meant to be 4.1%, since Fangraphs still have us at 3.2% (and no chance at winning it all). Or maybe BB Ref knows something we don’t?  

[owknows]

5 minutes ago, InsideCoroner said:

Baseball Reference almost caused me to spit out my coffee this morning when it said our postseason odds were 41.0%. I have to assume this was meant to be 4.1%, since Fangraphs still have us at 3.2% (and no chance at winning it all). Or maybe BB Ref knows something we don’t?  

I don't think that's an error.

[Can_of_corn]

There has been quite a gap in the projections for a while now.  Given that they are currently 1.5 GB of a Wild Card spot I think the Fangraphs odds are on the low side, on the other hand 41% seems high.

My guess is that when a team drastically outperforms the projections they become harder to predict going forward.  Fangraphs is probably using the same model for the team they had in April.

[Frobby]

They have different methodologies and I’m sure BB-ref meant 41%.   It’s been running in the 30’s for several days. 

By the way, Fangraphs has three different sets of odds.   The first is the “Fangraphs method,” which uses projections based on ZiPS and Steamer.  The second is “season to date,” which has us at 36.6%.   The third is “coin flip” which has us at 40.2%.  To see that on the Fangraphs playoff odds page, click on “projection mode” on the top left part of the page and choose the mode you want to see.  There’s also a “more information” button on the right side that explains the three methodologies in a bit more detail.   
 

Edited August 6, 2022 by Frobby

[Frobby]

The BP method using PECOTA has us at 20.7% today.   So, you can really just make up any number between 3% and 41% and justify it.  

[InsideCoroner]

Wow, even at 1.5 GB, I am surprised the odds could be that high.  I think the last I saw from most sites were all the ones at 3-5% (probably because I stopped looking at those odds).

Then again it’s nowa postseason system where it’s no longer about admitting the very best teams, but only turning away the bad teams. Which I guess is exactly what MLB wanted. 

[crowmst3k!]

49 minutes ago, InsideCoroner said:

Then again it’s nowa postseason system where it’s no longer about admitting the very best teams, but only turning away the bad teams. Which I guess is exactly what MLB wanted. 

I'll take it. More teams vying for the playoffs is better for baseball.  

Big market teams can still assemble an elite roster, but anything can happen in a short series.  

[Aristotelian]

Any idea what's different about their algorithm that it spits out 41%? We are the next team out of the money, so need to catch up on either of SEA or TB, which seems very doable. However, we also have the Guardians and both color Sox. Seems like our odds can't be more than about 25%.