Mariners set to sign Rodriguez?

[OriolesMagic83]

8 hours ago, Satyr3206 said:

Yep. Best strategy.

Heck no.  I believe Adley is going to be a top 10 player for at least 7 or 8 years. (barring injury). The O's with and without Adley is like night and day, unless you think the O's randomly started winning when Adley joined the team.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Heck no.  I believe Adley is going to be a top 10 player for at least 7 or 8 years. (barring injury). The O's with and without Adley is like night and day, unless you think the O's randomly started winning when Adley joined the team.

Before Adley: 16-24

When Adley starts at catcher: 36-22

When Adley starts at DH: 8-8

When Adley pinch hits: 2-1

When Adley sits out: 4-4

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Hallas said:

The 5/90 is a player option that is voided if the team exercises the 8/200 team option.    So the guaranteed amount is technically 12 or 13 (somewhat unclear) and 210m.  Though the 5/90 portion is very likely to be opted out of.  Ken Rosenthal tweeted confirmation of this.

 

 

Yea but neither of those options is definite.  It’s just likely that either Seattle picks it up or he ends up doing it.

But if Seattle doesn’t want it, that means he has struggled, which likely means he will take the 90M guaranteed, thus the 12/210.

The thing is, at only 18M a year, he could gamble on bouncing back (depends on bad he has been and for how long).

I think people are saying 12/210 guaranteed because it seems like one of the 2 scenarios is highly likely to occur.  But 8/120 is the base.

He can become a FA at age 30.

[foxfield]

Well, this is a very interesting contract.  And it would be interesting to see when or if Baltimore will begin locking it's own players up.  I think it is very creative.  

I think catcher is an awkward position to lock up long term.  If you consider catchers performing until age 32 as a general mark, you also only need to tack on a couple of years of FA to capture this time (he will turn 25 in Feb).  All of that said, you could model a deal like the one Seattle is doing and make it very interesting.  

It's one of the tests Elias has to pass.  He has said the Orioles will spend this offseason.  I believe some of that will be in-house. 

[Frobby]

Szymborski thinks it’s a fair deal.  
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-ms-and-julio-rodriguez-write-the-most-expensive-choose-your-own-adventure-book-ever/

[Hallas]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea but neither of those options is definite.  It’s just likely that either Seattle picks it up or he ends up doing it.

But if Seattle doesn’t want it, that means he has struggled, which likely means he will take the 90M guaranteed, thus the 12/210.

The thing is, at only 18M a year, he could gamble on bouncing back (depends on bad he has been and for how long).

I think people are saying 12/210 guaranteed because it seems like one of the 2 scenarios is highly likely to occur.  But 8/120 is the base.

He can become a FA at age 30.

The team option isn't definite but the player option is definite.  Would it make more sense to call it a 12/210 with an opt out?  Money in options are typically considered to be part of the guaranteed amount.  It's a conditional opt out, yes, but the condition is that the Mariners exercise the option to increase the contract value to a minimum of 16/320.

[Pushmonkey]

If only there was a forum for mlb news. 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Hallas said:

The team option isn't definite but the player option is definite.  Would it make more sense to call it a 12/210 with an opt out?  Money in options are typically considered to be part of the guaranteed amount.  It's a conditional opt out, yes, but the condition is that the Mariners exercise the option to increase the contract value to a minimum of 16/320.

No, it’s not definite.  He could decline it. As was said, he could be a FA at age 30.  

[Hallas]

59 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, it’s not definite.  He could decline it. As was said, he could be a FA at age 30.  

With every contract I've seen pretty much since free agency existed, the reporting on any contract with an opt out or player option counted the opt-out portion of the contract as part of the guaranteed money.  When ARod signed his 10/252 deal it wasn't reported as a 7/186 deal with a 3/66 player option.  This should be no different.  The assumption is that the player is only going to opt out if it's advantageous to him.

[Camden_yardbird]

2 hours ago, Pushmonkey said:

If only there was a forum for mlb news. 

If you read the thread it basically devolved into a discussion on how this effect Adley so this is basically an Orioles discussion.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

If you read the thread it basically devolved into a discussion on how this effect Adley so this is basically an Orioles discussion.

Should be more of a Henderson discussion.

He's a better comp if he transitions well to the majors.

[Hallas]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Should be more of a Henderson discussion.

He's a better comp if he transitions well to the majors.

 

Do you wait a year before paying Henderson or do you sign him before next season?  Wander Franco signed for 8/120 before debuting but he's probably got a higher prospect grade than Henderson; multiple publications were rating him as the best prospect in 10+ years, with Fangraphs giving him the only 80 FV grade ever.  Rodriguez' contract is mess but it's essentially 12/210 at minumum, with an opt out after year 7.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Hallas said:

 

Do you wait a year before paying Henderson or do you sign him before next season?  Wander Franco signed for 8/120 before debuting but he's probably got a higher prospect grade than Henderson; multiple publications were rating him as the best prospect in 10+ years, with Fangraphs giving him the only 80 FV grade ever.  Rodriguez' contract is mess but it's essentially 12/210 at minumum, with an opt out after year 7.

Henderson has come, relatively, out of nowhere.  Not that he wasn’t a good prospect before but he has gone from good to elite in the matter of months. 
 

I would probably need to see him play at least most of his first season, if not all of it, before attempting this.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Hallas said:

 

Do you wait a year before paying Henderson or do you sign him before next season?  Wander Franco signed for 8/120 before debuting but he's probably got a higher prospect grade than Henderson; multiple publications were rating him as the best prospect in 10+ years, with Fangraphs giving him the only 80 FV grade ever.  Rodriguez' contract is mess but it's essentially 12/210 at minumum, with an opt out after year 7.

Are you kidding?

I wanted to sign Henderson to a long term deal last season.

[Hallas]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Are you kidding?

I wanted to sign Henderson to a long term deal last season.

Really?  That's beyond aggressive IMO.  He was not a top-5 prospect last offseason.