MacPhail and Markakis

[SilentJames]

The fact that there is no extension in place for such an obvious star may mean the Orioles don't agree that Nick is as good as the fans seem to think.

That is not true. The deal will happen, Markakis' camp wanted to wait for arb. figures to come out, and probably take a break for the holidays as Nick had family things to take care of I'm sure, but both sides are confident that the deal will be made.

The Orioles know what Nick means, and he knows that. But this is the dance every major league team not located in Boston and New York is trying to pay their players as little as they possibly can get away with. Meanwhile players are trying to get overpaid.

They are 10 million apart, this gets done.

[mrbig1]

I said last year they would not extend Nick. We keep going after AM, the puppit on a string. PA will milk this as long he can. PA dosen't have to extend him at all. If too much is made of this then he will trade Nick. As I said last year I don't know everything about Baseball but I do know Peter Angelos. He's not going to put out the money to resign or sign a big name player. For a market as large as the Orioles our highest pay player would be one of the lowest paid on the Redsox or Yankees. As I've said many times before. It has gotten so bad that MLB should step in and force PA to sell the team.

[SilentJames]

Are you mis-spelling puppet for a reason?

[Cokeman]

The fact that there is no extension in place for such an obvious star may mean the Orioles don't agree that Nick is as good as the fans seem to think.

Well, that would bring in a whole series of other questions...

[Boy Howdy]

The fact that there is no extension in place for such an obvious star may mean the Orioles don't agree that Nick is as good as the fans seem to think.

I don't think that's the case, but the fact that his top two similarity scores through age 24 are the once highly touted, can't miss duo of Ben Grieve and Ellis Valentine is a little frightening.

Let's cross our fingers that he'll end up more like #3, Hall of Famer Enos Slaughter (minus the ugly redneck behavior, or course)

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't think that's the case, but the fact that his top two similarity scores through age 24 are the once highly touted, can't miss duo of Ben Grieve and Ellis Valentine is a little frightening.

Let's cross our fingers that he'll end up more like #3, Hall of Famer Enos Slaughter (minus the ugly redneck behavior, or course)

BB-ref similarity scores are a little misleading because they aren't league or park or anything else adjusted.

Ellis Valentine was a pretty awesome player until he was hit in the face with a pitch at the age of 25. He was never nearly the same player afterwords. Greive had one of the more notable career implosions of recent memory. He was a heck of a player until he was traded to the Rays.

What you fail to mention is that others on his top 10 comp list include Carlos Beltran, one of the better players in baseball in the 2000s, Vernon Wells, at times one of the better outfielders in the league, Chet Lemon, who had a 120 OPS plus and great defense over 16 years, Ellis Burks, a long-time All Star, and Kent Hrbek, who was a pretty darn good player for a decade despite looking like Boog Powell does today. Although the system is a little flawed, his comps are pretty great, actually.

Oh, and I agree that the lack of an extension today has nothing to do with how the O's view Markakis. Anyone can see he's the best player on the field many days the O's take the field, Oriole or opponent.

[Boy Howdy]

BB-ref similarity scores are a little misleading because they aren't league or park or anything else adjusted.

Ellis Valentine was a pretty awesome player until he was hit in the face with a pitch at the age of 25. He was never nearly the same player afterwords. Greive had one of the more notable career implosions of recent memory. He was a heck of a player until he was traded to the Rays.

What you fail to mention is that others on his top 10 comp list include Carlos Beltran, one of the better players in baseball in the 2000s, Vernon Wells, at times one of the better outfielders in the league, Chet Lemon, who had a 120 OPS plus and great defense over 16 years, Ellis Burks, a long-time All Star, and Kent Hrbek, who was a pretty darn good player for a decade despite looking like Boog Powell does today. Although the system is a little flawed, his comps are pretty great, actually.

I anticipate your rebuttal every time I use similairity scores, and I concede your very valid points. I only brought it up to play devil's advocate, but considering I don't really advocate any devil business, it's no skin off my nose.

Now, I well understand that sim scores are not meant as a projection tool, but it's interesting to see what happens if the rest of Nick's career looks like the average of his top 10 comps.

A 12-year career (total, ) with a .288/.371/.466 line (121 OPS) and counting stat totals of 1569 hits, 189 homers and 855 RBI.

Now, that's a fine career for a kid coming out of the draft to aspire to, but if Nick's numbers wind up looking like that I'd imagine most of us would be a little disappointed after all he's already accomplished. Just something to bend the mind around on a January afternoon.

[DrungoHazewood]

I anticipate your rebuttal every time I use similairity scores, and I concede your very valid points. I only brought it up to play devil's advocate, but considering I don't really advocate any devil business, it's no skin off my nose.

Now, I well understand that sim scores are not meant as a projection tool, but it's interesting to see what happens if the rest of Nick's career looks like the average of his top 10 comps.

A 12-year career (total, ) with a .288/.371/.466 line (121 OPS) and counting stat totals of 1569 hits, 189 homers and 855 RBI.

Now, that's a fine career for a kid coming out of the draft to aspire to, but if Nick's numbers wind up looking like that I'd imagine most of us would be a little disappointed after all he's already accomplished. Just something to bend the mind around on a January afternoon.

I'd be more optimistic. If he stays healthy, which I know is in no small part due to luck, those projections probably go up by, I don't know, 25%. Valentine, and Kemp were felled by fluky injuries being hit by balls. And we know he's not fat like Hrbek. And we know he's better than Bruce Campbell (no, not that one) because Campbell played his early 20s in the high-octane 1930s in the hitter's paradise of Sportsmans' Park. Some of his comp years to Markakis ended up with OPS+'s under 100. He's only comparable because they don't adjust for that.

So as long as he can keep his head out of the way of high-speed baseballs, and doesn't start downing eclairs and pies like Hrbek, I think the average of his non-decapitated, non-obese comps is much better than the line you quoted.

There's nothing so far in Nick's career that precludes an eventual trip to Cooperstown to get a bronze plaque.

[Boy Howdy]

There's nothing so far in Nick's career that precludes an eventual trip to Cooperstown to get a bronze plaque.

Oh, I agree.

His accomplishments at a young age, consistency and incremental improvement all bode very well from where I'm sitting.

That's why I really hope the extension get done.

This morning I was thinking how Brooks Robinson debuted in 1955, and Cal Ripken in 1981 --26 years later. Now, we're heading into 28 years since, but perhaps the next great career Orioles non-pitcher is already here.

I'm tempted to bite my own tongue before I ever jinx Markakis like that, but I absolutely see him doing the right things so far and root for him to stick around here as a result.

[Andy_Dufresne]

I anticipate your rebuttal every time I use similairity scores, and I concede your very valid points. I only brought it up to play devil's advocate, but considering I don't really advocate any devil business, it's no skin off my nose.

Now, I well understand that sim scores are not meant as a projection tool, but it's interesting to see what happens if the rest of Nick's career looks like the average of his top 10 comps.

A 12-year career (total, ) with a .288/.371/.466 line (121 OPS) and counting stat totals of 1569 hits, 189 homers and 855 RBI.

Now, that's a fine career for a kid coming out of the draft to aspire to, but if Nick's numbers wind up looking like that I'd imagine most of us would be a little disappointed after all he's already accomplished. Just something to bend the mind around on a January afternoon.

If those figures stand for Nick, maybe the Orioles are correct in allowing him to go to arbitration until he reaches FA. Someone will always over pay for a quality major leaguer. But those that are calling for Markakis to be locked up for 6-8 years with a superstar's salary might want to wait a year or so.

[DrungoHazewood]

If those figures stand for Nick, maybe the Orioles are correct in allowing him to go to arbitration until he reaches FA. Someone will always over pay for a quality major leaguer. But those that are calling for Markakis to be locked up for 6-8 years with a superstar's salary might want to wait a year or so.

Yea, why don't they postpone negotiations until he's progressed from just the best right fielder in the league to something even better.

[Andy_Dufresne]

Yea, why don't they postpone negotiations until he's progressed from just the best right fielder in the league to something even better.

Because. based on the numbers above he will not be the best right fielder, just one of the more consistently very good OFs in the AL. .300 .375 .476 21 91 40 2B doesn't make him the best. He's not a young Vlad or Maglio. I'd put him in the Rios, Abreu, Giles category

[Lucky Jim]

Because. based on the numbers above he will not be the best right fielder, just one of the more consistently very good OFs in the AL. .300 .375 .476 21 91 40 2B doesn't make him the best. He's not a young Vlad or Maglio. I'd put him in the Rios, Abreu, Giles category

AGE YEAR TEAM    G    AB    H  2B  3B  HR    R  RBI   SB   CS   SO   BB  HBP   SH   SF  IBB  GDP   BA   OBP    SLG23 1997 CHI-A   21    69   22   6   0   4   12   11    1    2    8    2    0    1    0    0    1  .319  .338  .58024 1998 CHI-A  145   535  151  25   2  14   70   65    9    7   53   28    9    2    4    1   19  .282  .326  .41525 1999 CHI-A  157   624  188  34   3  30  100  117   13    6   64   47    1    0    5    4   24  .301  .349  .51026 2000 CHI-A  153   588  185  34   3  32  102  126   18    4   64   60    2    0   15    3   28  .315  .371  .54627 2001 CHI-A  160   593  181  40   1  31   97  113   25    7   70   70    5    0    3    7   14  .305  .382  .533

AGE YEAR TEAM    G    AB    H  2B  3B  HR    R  RBI   SB   CS   SO   BB  HBP   SH   SF  IBB  GDP   BA   OBP    SLG22 2006 BAL-A  139   491  143  25   2  16   72   62    2    0   72   43    3    3    2    3   17  .291  .351  .44823 2007 BAL-A  161   637  191  43   3  23   97  112   18    6  112   61    5    1    6    5   22  .300  .362  .48524 2008 BAL-A  157   595  182  48   1  20  106   87   10    7  113   99    2    0    1    7   10  .306  .406  .491

AGE YEAR TEAM   PA  OUT  UEQR   EQA  EQR BRAR BRAA FRAR FRAA PRAR  WARP1   EQA  EQR BRAR BRAA FRAR FRAA PRAR  WARP2 WARP322 2006 BAL-A  542  353    72  .277   71   26   10   18    5    0    4.9  .281   74   29   13   24    7    0    5.8   5.823 2007 BAL-A  710  459   108  .292  106   48   27   13    1    0    6.7  .298  112   53   32   23    5    0    8.4   8.424 2008 BAL-A  697  421   113  .310  112   59   40   15   -2    0    8.1  .318  120   66   47   21    3    0    9.5   9.6

AGE YEAR TEAM   PA  OUT  UEQR   EQA  EQR BRAR BRAA FRAR FRAA PRAR  WARP1   EQA  EQR BRAR BRAA FRAR FRAA PRAR  WARP2 WARP323 1997 CHI-A   72   50    12  .299   12    6    4    3    1    0    1.0  .302   13    6    4    3    1    0    1.0   1.024 1998 CHI-A  578  397    68  .260   68   18    0   21    9    0    4.3  .264   71   21    3   27   12    0    5.3   5.325 1999 CHI-A  677  447   103  .284   96   39   19    6   -5    0    5.0  .284   96   40   19    9   -5    0    5.4   5.426 2000 CHI-A  665  422   115  .299  103   49   30   11   -1    0    6.7  .299  103   50   31   14    0    0    7.1   7.1

Magglio was 26 before he put up a single year worth as much as Markakis's worst year. Markakis will be playing this year at 25.

[Andy_Dufresne]

AGE YEAR TEAM    G    AB    H  2B  3B  HR    R  RBI   SB   CS   SO   BB  HBP   SH   SF  IBB  GDP   BA   OBP    SLG23 1997 CHI-A   21    69   22   6   0   4   12   11    1    2    8    2    0    1    0    0    1  .319  .338  .58024 1998 CHI-A  145   535  151  25   2  14   70   65    9    7   53   28    9    2    4    1   19  .282  .326  .41525 1999 CHI-A  157   624  188  34   3  30  100  117   13    6   64   47    1    0    5    4   24  .301  .349  .51026 2000 CHI-A  153   588  185  34   3  32  102  126   18    4   64   60    2    0   15    3   28  .315  .371  .54627 2001 CHI-A  160   593  181  40   1  31   97  113   25    7   70   70    5    0    3    7   14  .305  .382  .533

AGE YEAR TEAM    G    AB    H  2B  3B  HR    R  RBI   SB   CS   SO   BB  HBP   SH   SF  IBB  GDP   BA   OBP    SLG22 2006 BAL-A  139   491  143  25   2  16   72   62    2    0   72   43    3    3    2    3   17  .291  .351  .44823 2007 BAL-A  161   637  191  43   3  23   97  112   18    6  112   61    5    1    6    5   22  .300  .362  .48524 2008 BAL-A  157   595  182  48   1  20  106   87   10    7  113   99    2    0    1    7   10  .306  .406  .491

AGE YEAR TEAM   PA  OUT  UEQR   EQA  EQR BRAR BRAA FRAR FRAA PRAR  WARP1   EQA  EQR BRAR BRAA FRAR FRAA PRAR  WARP2 WARP322 2006 BAL-A  542  353    72  .277   71   26   10   18    5    0    4.9  .281   74   29   13   24    7    0    5.8   5.823 2007 BAL-A  710  459   108  .292  106   48   27   13    1    0    6.7  .298  112   53   32   23    5    0    8.4   8.424 2008 BAL-A  697  421   113  .310  112   59   40   15   -2    0    8.1  .318  120   66   47   21    3    0    9.5   9.6

AGE YEAR TEAM   PA  OUT  UEQR   EQA  EQR BRAR BRAA FRAR FRAA PRAR  WARP1   EQA  EQR BRAR BRAA FRAR FRAA PRAR  WARP2 WARP323 1997 CHI-A   72   50    12  .299   12    6    4    3    1    0    1.0  .302   13    6    4    3    1    0    1.0   1.024 1998 CHI-A  578  397    68  .260   68   18    0   21    9    0    4.3  .264   71   21    3   27   12    0    5.3   5.325 1999 CHI-A  677  447   103  .284   96   39   19    6   -5    0    5.0  .284   96   40   19    9   -5    0    5.4   5.426 2000 CHI-A  665  422   115  .299  103   49   30   11   -1    0    6.7  .299  103   50   31   14    0    0    7.1   7.1

Magglio was 26 before he put up a single year worth as much as Markakis's worst year. Markakis will be playing this year at 25.

Age is one way. I prefer experience.

Look at Markakis v. Maglio following their 3rd complete season in the majors, 2006-8 vs. 1998-2000.

Maglio had his second 30+ HR season, a 126 RBI following 117 RBI season by his 3rd full year. Markakis 20 following 23. Maglio had a SLG in his 2nd and 3rd full season of .510 and .546 compared with Markakis' .485 & .491

[Lucky Jim]

Age is one way. I prefer experience.

Look at Markakis v. Maglio following their 3rd complete season in the majors, 2006-8 vs. 1998-2000.

Maglio had his second 30+ HR season, a 126 RBI following 117 RBI season by his 3rd full year. Markakis 20 following 23. Maglio had a SLG in his 2nd and 3rd full season of .510 and .546 compared with Markakis' .485 & .491

Right. I'm going to guess you prefer "experience" to "age" because it supports your argument.

So, Markakis gets no credit for having a higher OPS at age 23 than Ordonez...when Ordonez was playing in the minors at AA and AAA? That makes a ton of sense: reward Ordonez for being slower along the development curve, and judge Markakis by stats he put up well before his peak.

Year  Age Tm  Lg  Lvl Aff   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   SB   CS  SB%  SH  SF IBB HBP GDP1997   23 NVL AA  AAA CHW  135   523   65  172  29   3  14   90   32   61  .329  .368  .476  .844   14  10  58%

Year Ag Tm  Lg  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG *OPS+  TB   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP 2007 23 BAL AL 161  637   97  191  43  3  23  112  18  6  61 112  .300  .362  .485  121  309   1   6   5   5  22

Seems your way is counter-intuitive at best.