Should/Will the O’s Exercise the Jordan Lyles Option?

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think the question is whether there is value in having a player with a 90 ERA+ who can take the ball every fifth day, if he's at the back end of your rotation.

The Blue Jays gave 72 starts to pitchers with ERA/ERA+'s worse than Lyles.  They would have been a better team with Lyles than Berrios, Kikuchi and the rest.

The Rays really only had four regular starters, but gave between one and nine starts to 13 other pitchers.  Some pretty good, some pretty terrible. It's arguable they'd have been better just using Lyles as their 5th starter.

The Guardians had two starters with 20+ starts and an ERA+ worse than Lyles.

I don't think the decision on Lyles is obvious.  They do need better 1-3 starters.  But they could do worse than having him as the 4th/5th starter.

 

There is value but not 10M and not with this team.

You have Bradish and Kremer at the end of the rotation.  You have GROd will be in the rotation either immediately or quickly after.  You have Hall who could figure in quickly.  Voth, Watkins, Zimmermann, Baumann and anyone else they sign as a MiL FA are go to options for depth.  You have plenty of 3-5 type guys.  You need upper echelon pitching.  

Plus, you have Tyler Wells depending on what role you use him in.

Lyles, even though I didn't like the signing, made some sense in 2022 with this team coming off 2021 and all the failed pitching, etc...

Now, you are trying to contend and you don't need any more of those guys.

Edited October 28, 2022 by Sports Guy

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That's why I haven't voted. I'd be slightly in favor of picking up the option, but only on the assumption we are still going after a TOR starter, either through FA or trade. I think there is room for both Lyles and an upgrade, but if we are choosing between the two I would go for the upgrade for sure. 

The O's could sign a middle of the rotation starter this off season and be better off than resigning Lyles.  It does not have to be  TOR starter.

When I look at what Kremer did, what Bradish did in the 2nd half, what Voth did and what Grayson is likely to do they are all better than Lyles.

The major thing that Lyles offers is innings and with the above 4 plus Means, Wells and possibly Hall there are innings.  Heck, Watkins had a better starter ERA than Lyles.

Adding a middle of the rotation starter is not only enough, its desirable to bringing back Lyles IMO.

Edited October 28, 2022 by wildcard

[sportsfan8703]

I think they should do it for a couple of reasons. 1/10 is pretty much fair market value. It also gives us a rotation of GR, Lyles, Bradish, Kremer, Voth. Just to start out FA. Wells and Watkins as depth. But the kicker for me is that we get to move Wells into MR primarily. That move I think prevents the pen from tiring down and having regression. 
 

Overall, I see this as Lyles + rotation depth + not having to spend FA money/prospects on a MR/SU man(Wells to pen).  I think that’s worth the 10 million. 

[emmett16]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

How is paying $11M for what is objectively a 4th or 5th starter going cheap?  If they wanted to go cheap they'd just let one of the much less experienced guys making $700k a year the 4th/5th starter.

Assumption being that $11M heralded as spending on a FA starter.  I can’t see them spending $11M on a backup or 5th type.  If they do, then I stand corrected.  

[Just Regular]

Who knows what funhouse mirror type things the long term relationship between STL and Adam Wainwright do, but FWIW the market today did give one price point for a year of a high-innings, maybe not so great quality SP:

$17.5mm ($10mm deferred).

 

[sportsfan8703]

Lyles is the “low risk” move. Also, I wouldn’t count out Means coming back sooner than expected. Contract year for him. Nothing to lose. Add another vet SP on a milb deal and we have good depth. Not too end depth but not many teams do. 
 

OD: GR, Lyles, Bradish, Kremer, Voth

Depth: Means(real close, late April?), Wells, Watkins, Hall(game changer)

I think we roll with that. We don’t commit long term money to a SP, or trade prospects. Then see where we are at the deadline. 
 

Things that don’t show up in Lyles’ stat line… pushes Wells/Voth to pen, innings eater, 1 year deal. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Lyles is the “low risk” move. Also, I wouldn’t count out Means coming back sooner than expected. Contract year for him. Nothing to lose. Add another vet SP on a milb deal and we have good depth. Not too end depth but not many teams do. 
 

OD: GR, Lyles, Bradish, Kremer, Voth

Depth: Means(real close, late April?), Wells, Watkins, Hall(game changer)

I think we roll with that. We don’t commit long term money to a SP, or trade prospects. Then see where we are at the deadline. 
 

Things that don’t show up in Lyles’ stat line… pushes Wells/Voth to pen, innings eater, 1 year deal. 

He’s not low risk.  Being below average for a high salary isn’t low risk. 

[Big Mac]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Lyles is the “low risk” move. Also, I wouldn’t count out Means coming back sooner than expected. Contract year for him. Nothing to lose. Add another vet SP on a milb deal and we have good depth. Not too end depth but not many teams do. 
 

OD: GR, Lyles, Bradish, Kremer, Voth

Depth: Means(real close, late April?), Wells, Watkins, Hall(game changer)

I think we roll with that. We don’t commit long term money to a SP, or trade prospects. Then see where we are at the deadline. 
 

Things that don’t show up in Lyles’ stat line… pushes Wells/Voth to pen, innings eater, 1 year deal. 

Means is not going to be ready by late April.  We should go into next season with the assumption that any innings we get from him are a bonus.  Also, he is not a free agent until after the 2024 season. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s not low risk.  Being below average for a high salary isn’t low risk. 

He has a low risk of being good.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

He has a low risk of being good.

A team that considers itself a contender should aim higher.

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A team that considers itself a contender should aim higher.

I agree we should be looking to bring in a TOR guy, but that could be in addition to Lyles. That would give us a top four of Grayson, TOR guy, Kremer, Lyles, with Bradish and Voth fighting for 5th starter/long man and Means and Hall for depth.  Lyles would not have to pitch in a playoff series. That feels pretty solid to me. 

Urquidy and Kyle Gibson would be comps from the current WS teams. 

[Just Regular]

34 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Urquidy and Kyle Gibson would be comps from the current WS teams. 

I think a little better of Urquidy, but Kyle Gibson is one MLB pitcher who seems pretty similar to Lyles to me.    He's on the magic carpet ride of his life.     Let's see how that role plays in October.

Wildcard - threw 0 of 18 team innings

Divisional Round - threw 0 of 35 team innings

LCS - threw 1.1 of 44 team innings

Some of my Lyles option aversion is pitchers like him don't rate October reps.   I hope the '23 Orioles take October reps.    I doubt the '23 Orioles payroll is going much past ~$80mm, if even that.     Doesn't seem efficient to put 10-15% of team payroll, and make as your highest or 2nd highest paid guy someone you'd steer away from using if the year goes well and your young blue chips take you there.

Edited October 29, 2022 by Just Regular

[Matt Bennett]

Lyles did his job and the money should certainly not be the issue. 

He’s just not that good. Every 5 days we’d be giving the ball to someone who’s not that good. The Wall is the only reason his ERA was south of 5.00. 

We have to raise the bar, set our standards higher. Jordan Lyles isn’t good enough to be in our Opening Day starting 5. Tyler Wells isn’t good enough. Austin Voth should be pushed to the pen. We must have more than 5 “good” starters. 

1. Grayson Rodriguez

2. Dean Kremer

3. Kyle Bradish

4. Outside Addition (who is much better than Lyles) 

5. Outside Addition (who is better than Lyles) 

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s not low risk.  Being below average for a high salary isn’t low risk. 

A one-year deal at $11 mm is not high risk.  It may be unwise.   

[Sports Guy]

19 hours ago, RZNJ said:

How is a 91 ERA+ a best-case scenario for a pitcher who had a 106 ERA+ as recently as 2019 in 28 starts? Admittedly that's his career best but at age 32 it's not out of the question that he's as good as last year and MAYBE better.

Keep in mind that Lyles was a starter in Colorado from age 20-24.  After 2015 he stayed in Colorado as basically a swing man who made sporadic starts.  He didn't become a full-time starter again until 2019.   

What was best case scenario for him was a down offensive year and Walltimore.  He is a guy who is an extreme home run pitcher and ended up playing in a park that moved the wall back and made it easier to not allow homers.

But in a scenario where everything fell into place for him, he still was below average.