Poll: Do you like the Adam Frazier signing?

[luismatos4prez]

The argument appears to be that Frazier was good, but now stinks. Consider that he was still worth 1.1 fWAR last year and underperformed his xwOBA by 25 points. He's still a 1.5-2 WAR guy in my book. Or more if he recaptures 2021 form.

Should Elias have signed him? Only if a trade is coming from MIF depth as I said before. And even so, it's a questionable use of 8M on a team with an apparently still pathetic budget. But despite all that, Frazier is still a good player.

[clapdiddy]

14 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Mark Belanger posted a career OPS+ of 68.

He is a weaker player than Odor.
 

There you go. 
 

 

Belanger was a many time Gold Glove winning shortstop, though.  That's where his value was.

Odor was, at best, a slightly below average second baseman who didn't hit much.   Big difference. 

Not trying to be snarky, but I don't feel that's a very good comparison.

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The go select yes, because you haven't voted yet.

BTW, what makes you think Elias will bench an $8 million player. He wouldn't bench Odor and he was making the bare minimum. At the end of the day, buckle up for at least 475 PAs of Frazier next year regardless of his output.

I agree that Frazier will get a lot of rope.  On the other hand, there weren’t great alternatives to Odor for most, if not all of last year.   Without trades, we’ll have Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby as potential fallback options.

[eddie83]

8 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I can aspire to date a model, but if I am out of shape, unemployed, and don't shower for weeks at a time, and hang out exclusively at seedy dive bars, is that a remotely realistic aspiration?

Yes, because comparing Adam Frazier to an alltime great defender at a completely dfferent position in a vastly different era of baseball is honest and reasonable, and not even a little disingenuous or desperate 

You are the one who tried to simplify the comparison of Odor to Frazier. Not me. I was just pointing out the absurdity of one stat being some tell all of the two players. 
 

They both hit LH and play second base. That is where the comparison stops. 

And for the 9,763rd time how they handled 2022 is not relevant to 23. 

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Belanger was a many time Gold Glove winning shortstop, though.  That's where his value was.

Odor was, at best, a slightly below average second baseman who didn't hit much.   Big difference. 

Not trying to be snarky, but I don't feel that's a very good comparison.

You aren’t being snarky. I was.

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

What does Odor do well other than hit HR’s ? I was being sarcastic for effect. 

Huh? Why in the world would you think I would be defending Odor in any way? I was just talking about the silliness of your example you gave in Belanger. 

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

So because you feel this way everyone else should as well. That is the core of your argument. You always want the kids to play. You want Westburg to be the starter. Great. Not a crazy thought at all. 
 

My point is you still have the exact same pipeline. It has not gone anywhere. 
 

I do not think for one second that Frazier’s playing time will be the reason for this team not being a playoff team or not. 
 

The percentage of team payroll is meaningless. MLB players are not paid what they produce. They are paid based upon service time and the market. Which you know. 

I don’t care how you feel. You can choose to feel anyway you want. I just think it’s dumb.

Whether or not Frazier stops them from being a playoff team is irrelevant. Of course he won’t stop that. Almost no cases of any single player stopping you from that goal would exist. That isn’t and never has been anyone’s argument or anything even close to that.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

You are the one who tried to simplify the comparison of Odor to Frazier. Not me. I was just pointing out the absurdity of one stat being some tell all of the two players. 
 

They both hit LH and play second base. That is where the comparison stops. 

And for the 9,763rd time how they handled 2022 is not relevant to 23. 

If June comes around and Frazier has a 625 OPS and his defense is ok, do you think the cut/bench him for guys that are ready to perform ?

Edited December 21, 2022 by Sports Guy

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

They both hit LH and play second base. That is where the comparison stops. 

Uh, no? 

They are both coming off very poor offensive performances in 2022 that were ~20% below league average. That is a 100% valid and pertinent data point when comparing Odor and Frazier.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

You are the one who tried to simplify the comparison of Odor to Frazier. Not me. I was just pointing out the absurdity of one stat being some tell all of the two players. 
 

They both hit LH and play second base. That is where the comparison stops. 

And for the 9,763rd time how they handled 2022 is not relevant to 23. 

You can keep saying it like it's a fact, but until we see otherwise, how they handled Odor even after the team was a contender is how they will operate going forward.

Could the Orioles learn from there mistake after an offseason of analysis, sure. But I imagine the same analysts came up with replacing Odor with Frazier, so personally, I'm going to question the analysis.

Either way, what we know by how Elias handled his starting lineups while the team was in contention is that he will run out out his veteran acquisitions over prospects. He did it with Odor over Vavra and he did it with Aguilar over Stowers. 

The fact that he never found a better second base option throughout the year in 2021, told me either he was unable to find one, did not think Vavra was the answer, and he thinks a lot of Veteranosity. 

But honestly, we know where we stand on all of this. I'm fine with moving on.

 

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t care how you feel. You can choose to feel anyway you want. I just think it’s dumb.

Whether or not Frazier stops them from being a playoff team is irrelevant. Of course he won’t stop that. Almost no cases of any single player stopping you from that goal would exist. That isn’t and never has been anyone’s argument or anything even close to that.

Ubaldo, 2016.

[Jammer7]

51 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

And the end of the day if they are wrong it has cost what? 

No such thing as a bad one year deal…

[eddie83]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Huh? Why in the world would you think I would be defending Odor in any way? I was just talking about the silliness of your example you gave in Belanger. 

 

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Huh? Why in the world would you think I would be defending Odor in any way? I was just talking about the silliness of your example you gave in Belanger. 

Never said you did. 

[eddie83]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If June comes around and Frazier has a 625 OPS and his defense is ok, do you think the cut/bench him for guys that are ready to perform ?

Cut, no. Benched more yes. 

[btdart20]

25 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

This argument comes down to people who are sure that players cannot statistically improve vs. those who believe mechanically adjustments can help a player produce more than they have recently. Some believe that EV’s and other data/metrics cannot be improved somewhat by adjusting the approach and mechanics. Some do. The Orioles must think so. I’m not talking about huge improvements, though. Reconnecting the lower half can certainly add more power to his swing. Being more selective of what pitches he swings at will help as well. 

No one that I have read on this topic has written that his numbers were good since he left Pitt in 2021. We all agree. It was a sudden drop. Why? Is it fixable? After listening to Frazier speak in a few interviews, he thinks it is. The Orioles must also. They bet $8 million on him and their coaches.

If this was a RH pull hitter, looking for a bounce back year, it would be a strange move. Frazier’s profile is interesting to me. I’m not expecting a career year out of him. Maybe somewhere between his average and his best years would be great. Or, maybe he plays his way into a bench role by June and gets beaten out by Ortiz, Norby or Westburg. I’m willing to see it play out. 

I'm not sure they are betting on a mechanical adjustment to bump the EV.  I bet it's more about quality of contact (in the Jeff McNeil mold) vs. loud contact.  If Frazier can square up the ball consistently (even without the added umph), he'll likely get on base more often (i.e. the Babip will rebound). 

I've been digging for pitches per PA, but haven't been able to find it.  I suspect it's better than average.  Combined with low K% and (potentially) rebounding Babip, he's a good candidate to be a .260/.330/.370 type hitter.

@Can_of_corn - I saw that EV piece too.  It was well done.  That seems to be the cutting edge of the unknowns.  Interesting that Vavra was called out specifically in that article as well.