Suggested Deal w/Marlins

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Biggin said:

Santander and Urias for Lopez.

I cannot watch Santander play the outfield anymore and would love for others to get the DH ABs (Cowser, Frazier, Westburg/Frazier, Vavra, Adley, etc.)

Am I the only one that thinks we need to sell high on Santander?

What are your issues with Santander? I'm fine moving him in the right deal, but he's not a guy you give away. His expected stats are very good and better than his actuals, meaning he was a bit unlucky last year. 

[crawjo]

14 minutes ago, owknows said:

I don't think anyone is arguing that Mullins isn't the best option we have for CF today.

The question on the table is whether the Orioles are better off now (and in the future) by bolstering their starting pitching in exchange for a player we know we'd be downgrading for a bit. In other words, does the cost to CF performance get offset by the improvement to starting pitching.

And given that Mullins is approaching the point at which he will become prohibitively expensive to keep, is it better to extract that return value now rather than later.

These are not one-dimensional problems

I just think there's other options for bolstering starting pitching besides Mullins. Again, we have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball. The "return value" I want for Mullins is watching him help us win right now. The exception would be if we got back an outfielder in exchange. For instance, I would absolutely include Mullins in a package for Byron Buxton, as one example. 

If the plan is to trade Mullins and replace him with Hays or McKenna, I don't think that's a good plan. 

[owknows]

1 minute ago, crawjo said:

I just think there's other options for bolstering starting pitching besides Mullins. Again, we have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball. The "return value" I want for Mullins is watching him help us win right now. The exception would be if we got back an outfielder in exchange. For instance, I would absolutely include Mullins in a package for Byron Buxton, as one example. 

If the plan is to trade Mullins and replace him with Hays or McKenna, I don't think that's a good plan. 

There are other options.

But there is also Mullins

Whichever of these options returns the better balance of long and short term value for the club is the one we ought to exercise.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, crawjo said:

I just think there's other options for bolstering starting pitching besides Mullins. Again, we have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball. The "return value" I want for Mullins is watching him help us win right now. The exception would be if we got back an outfielder in exchange. For instance, I would absolutely include Mullins in a package for Byron Buxton, as one example. 

If the plan is to trade Mullins and replace him with Hays or McKenna, I don't think that's a good plan. 

If you brought back Phillips and platooned him with McKenna, there would be no speed or defense drop off. Offense would likely be worse but perhaps not by a lot.

[crawjo]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

If you brought back Phillips and platooned him with McKenna, there would be no speed or defense drop off. Offense would likely be worse but perhaps not by a lot.

So, just so we are clear, when I said that speed and defense are important, it goes without saying that this is in combination with also being able to hit, at least to some degree. 

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

If they put Fried on the market, they are getting 2-3 top 100 guys for him and likely other stuff.

And if the Braves are trading a guy like that, I worry that there is a bigger reason for it.

I don’t disagree, just a hypothetical. Mateo fills a huge need though, and you add in DL Hall. That’s two major league ready guys to go with Bradish or Kremer.

We have the capital to think big. Lopez isn’t thinking big, to your point a few pages ago. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I saw someone on Twitter the other day say it would take Cowser, Westburg and I believe Hall to get him.

Ok.   I think I suggested something like Urias/Stowers/(Ortiz or Westburg) and I think that would be an overpay but I don't think it's as bad as the above.

BTW, the Marlins were reportedly in on Brandon Drury, I assume as a 3B.   Urias might make sense for them.

Edited December 22, 2022 by RZNJ

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, crawjo said:

So, just so we are clear, when I said that speed and defense are important, it goes without saying that this is in combination with also being able to hit, at least to some degree. 

That’s fine but that platoon definitely could give us a 690-725 OPS. In other words, it can be as good or better than what Mateo was at SS last year.

BTw, I’m not saying this is ideal and I agree it’s a lower floor than Mullins but what I do think is that it can be productive enough that if that’s the route you need to take and Mullins gets the pitching you need, the net gain is a positive.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok.   I think I suggested something like Urias/Stowers/(Ortiz or Westburg) and I think that would be an overpay but I don't think it's as bad as the above.

BTW, the Marlins were reportedly in on Brandon Drury, I assume as a 3B.   Urias might make sense for them.

Urias, Mateo, Mullins and Mountcastle make sense for them.  There is no question in my mind that something can be worked out unless one of the sides is being completely unrealistic and won’t budge off of that.

[NCRaven]

I think any decision on Mullins future really depends, in large part, on their belief in Cowser as a centerfielder and when they think he'll be "ready."  By that, I mean as a complete package of offense and defense at that position.  If he can be a league average defender and provide more than that at the plate, I'd put up with a lesser player(s) in center for part of '23 while they let Cowser get some more AAA playing time.

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

What are your issues with Santander? I'm fine moving him in the right deal, but he's not a guy you give away. His expected stats are very good and better than his actuals, meaning he was a bit unlucky last year. 

It’s unlikely his value will ever be higher than it is right now and he is an oft injured guy coming off a healthy season.  I’d cash that chip in if someone is willing to pay for him.

[crawjo]

13 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I think any decision on Mullins future really depends, in large part, on their belief in Cowser as a centerfielder and when they think he'll be "ready."  By that, I mean as a complete package of offense and defense at that position.  If he can be a league average defender and provide more than that at the plate, I'd put up with a lesser player(s) in center for part of '23 while they let Cowser get some more AAA playing time.

I think the Orioles will always want/need someone better than league average in center field. I really believe they changed the dimensions of the park to gain a competitive advantage by prioritizing defense. I could be wrong, but I don't think "league-average" is going to cut it in left or center field in Baltimore for some time. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, crawjo said:

I think the Orioles will always want/need someone better than league average in center field. I really believe they changed the dimensions of the park to gain a competitive advantage by prioritizing defense. I could be wrong, but I don't think "league-average" is going to cut it in left or center field in Baltimore for some time. 

I think every team wants someone better than league average in center field.

That being said they did pretty well with Jones out there and he was pretty average out there.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, crawjo said:

I think the Orioles will always want/need someone better than league average in center field. I really believe they changed the dimensions of the park to gain a competitive advantage by prioritizing defense. I could be wrong, but I don't think "league-average" is going to cut it in left or center field in Baltimore for some time. 

Well Hays isn’t league average in LF

[NJOriolesFan]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Overrating means you think he’s better than he actually is. The value I see people placing on Lopez has gotten out of hand (I’m not just talking about this site when I say that)

He is basically a 3.5 WAR guy over 162 games.  I think Mullins is better than that and I don't think his replacement is necessarily here.  I would have liked this deal more when there were good options out there to replace him.  Not sure that still exists.  

Lopez, who I really like, replaces Wells/Means at this point and holds Hall out of the rotation for the year assuming team health.  I would prefer to jettison Gibson but that's not happening.  Considering health, I would rather roll with Rodriguez, Bradish, Kremer, Means, Gibson/Wells/Hall (to see what we have in Hall) and keep Mullins than bump one of Bradish, Kremer or Means or go with a 6 man rotation and have McKenna in centerfield with more DH time for Frazier/McCann/Urias.

If we got Lopez for Stowers or preferably Hays, I'm good there.  Would have been ok with Mountcastle for Lopez if Josh Bell was still available.  Otherwise, I roll with what we've got.  Probably win around 70-74 games this year but get a ton more questions answered for the future.  Signing Eovaldi for a year or Wacha at a lesser amount is about the only starting pitching move I would make if we aren't going top tier.

Mullins defense helps the pitchers and defense is about 70% of the pitching stat line.