Fangraphs ranks our SP as #28

[Frobby]

I wonder if the O’s believe that the pitchers you can pick up in rounds 11-20 have just about as good a chances of success as those available in rounds 2-10, or whether they simply switch over to drafting pitchers then because, well, somebody’s gotta pitch.   

Their no. 12 and 16 selections in 2021, Justin Armbruester and Peter Van Loon, had pretty nice seasons last year.   Tony ranks the former 38 and the latter 72 on his list.  I wouldn’t say anybody in the 2019 group looks like anything much, though Tony has 12th round reliever Kade Strowd at no. 39.   Strowd was effective but pitched only 17 innings.

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Johnson drafted by the Rays.

Yes, I know.

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Elias didn’t draft any of them. 

Yes, I know.

 

I'll keep it simple and say you have four main ways to acquire pitchers.

Draft, International signings, free agents, trades.

If you neglect three of the four you are still not doing much, compared to your peers, in regards to acquiring pitching.

 

[RZNJ]

33 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I noticed.  If you look you will see how I phrased it.

I wanted to make sure some .....other poster....didn't make a list of guys he had acquired and suggested i misrepresented things.

I once again failed...

I didn’t say you misrepresented anything.   Elias has not ignored pitching.  You said some pretty good pitchers will come out of the 2019-2022 drafts.  I hope so.  We got some.

 

[Going Underground]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I didn’t say you misrepresented anything.   Elias has not ignored pitching.  You said some pretty good pitchers will come out of the 2019-2022 drafts.  I hope so.  We got some.

 

Alek Manoah has been pretty good so far 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Alek Manoah has been pretty good so far 

Asa Lacy hasn’t.  I guess we should have passed on Adley for Manoah.

Edited January 1, 2023 by RZNJ

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes, I know.

Yes, I know.

 

I'll keep it simple and say you have four main ways to acquire pitchers.

Draft, International signings, free agents, trades.

If you neglect three of the four you are still not doing much, compared to your peers, in regards to acquiring pitching.

 

I guess it depends on how often you are trading for pitching.   

Team one drafts half batters and half pitchers.  

Team two drafts only batters but later trades half of them to acquire pitchers.

Has one team done more than the other to acquire pitchers?

I would bet the Orioles have acquired more pitchers via trade than the vast majority of teams.

 

[Just Regular]

I'm curious to see how Elias comes at the next couple drafts.    The world's Gregg Olson's, Michael Wacha's and Garrett Crochet's can get into the game fast if they show the talent and the Club is open to giving them that opportunity.

There's 5 years of baseball to enjoy while Adley's here, and probably 10 while Holliday is along with whatever Grayson, Mayo etc. become.

Even October 2023 pitchers could have far different texture than March if there's a good trade and BAL is a team that takes its shot on the Crochet type guy.

Bats over Arms to the extent of the last four years is more understandable in Talent Accumulation.   

At the same time, should Kjerstad, Cowser and Mayo add evidence that '22 Gunnar was signal not noise...what was the Ray Lewis-Eddie George line?     Make Alek Manoah curl up like a baby.     

One of the quotes Dombrowski gave out on building the '22 Phillies (setting aside they circumstance they needed Kyle Gibson to help drag them to 6th in their league) was he's built Bat First teams successfully before, and I'm confident the Adley Orioles will defend far better.     We'll see if Adley-Gunnar...Mullins? can hang with Bryce-Schwarber-Realmuto for 15 wins or some such.

[owknows]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I guess it depends on how often you are trading for pitching.   

Team one drafts half batters and half pitchers.  

Team two drafts only batters but later trades half of them to acquire pitchers.

Has one team done more than the other to acquire pitchers?

I would bet the Orioles have acquired more pitchers via trade than the vast majority of teams.

 

As we've discussed, The probability of playing one year in the majors is higher for position players than it is for pitchers. And it is particularly higher for middle infield and CF position players. So it would make sense to accumulate trade fodder of higher success probability. Particularly in the higher rounds.

Moreover, when seeking arms later, you've let the teams with which you've traded pre-screen the pitching pool from which you are selecting.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I guess it depends on how often you are trading for pitching.   

Team one drafts half batters and half pitchers.  

Team two drafts only batters but later trades half of them to acquire pitchers.

Has one team done more than the other to acquire pitchers?

I would bet the Orioles have acquired more pitchers via trade than the vast majority of teams.

 

O's have traded more ML assets for MiL assets under Elias than the vast majority of teams.  Is his pitcher/position player ratio far outside the norm when it comes to trades?

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I'm curious to see how Elias comes at the next couple drafts.    The world's Gregg Olson's, Michael Wacha's and Garrett Crochet's can get into the game fast if they show the talent and the Club is open to giving them that opportunity.

There's 5 years of baseball to enjoy while Adley's here, and probably 10 while Holliday is along with whatever Grayson, Mayo etc. become.

Even October 2023 pitchers could have far different texture than March if there's a good trade and BAL is a team that takes its shot on the Crochet type guy.

Bats over Arms to the extent of the last four years is more understandable in Talent Accumulation.   

At the same time, should Kjerstad, Cowser and Mayo add evidence that '22 Gunnar was signal not noise...what was the Ray Lewis-Eddie George line?     Make Alek Manoah curl up like a baby.     

One of the quotes Dombrowski gave out on building the '22 Phillies (setting aside they circumstance they needed Kyle Gibson to help drag them to 6th in their league) was he's built Bat First teams successfully before, and I'm confident the Adley Orioles will defend far better.     We'll see if Adley-Gunnar...Mullins? can hang with Bryce-Schwarber-Realmuto for 15 wins or some such.

Do you think Adley is likely to be here for five more full seasons?

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

O's have traded more ML assets for MiL assets under Elias than the vast majority of teams.  Is his pitcher/position player ratio far outside the norm when it comes to trades?

 

 

 

Yes.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

O's have traded more ML assets for MiL assets under Elias than the vast majority of teams.  Is his pitcher/position player ratio far outside the norm when it comes to trades?

 

 

 

Obviously I don’t know what “the norm” is.   I do feel like almost every trade we make involves acquiring pitchers.  Of course, we’ve also traded some away (Bundy, Cobb, Givens, Castro, Sulser, Scott and Lopez, to name a few).   

[AnythingO's]

I think Bradish and Kremer will be closer to their FIP of last year or around 4.0 ERA (150 INN each)

Gibson around 4.0 ERA and 175 INN

Grayson around 3.75 ERA and 125 INN

Wells around 4.25 ERA and 125 INN

Voth about 100 INN but around 4.0 ERA. That's about 825 INN at 4.0 ERA, about as blindly optimistic as I can be. the wildcard is Hall. I would like him to tandem with Grayson and stay on a starter schedule to manage Grayson's innings; GRod goes 3-4 and Hall goes 2-3 INN. Whichever one is going well gets more INN that day. You could switch roles from game to game to manage GRod INN. Voth, Akin, Watkins, Baumann, and the Norfolk scuttle fill 3 spots in the BP. To me this calls for another SP because you can't count on Means. I still think Urias to DET for ERod makes sense. They have no 3B on the roster and ERod has an opt out after this year with 4 yrs/$63 M left (14,18,16,15M). Why would he stay with the state they are in?  Offer him $5 M to not exercise the buyout so 3/$54 M after $14 M in 2023. He hits FA in 2026 at age 33 for another contract. 

[Sports Guy]

Elias draft strategy of going for bats over pitchers is an excellent one, for the most part. There may have been a pick here or there that should have gone pitcher within the first 4 or 5 picks but overall, it’s the proper strategy.

[Going Underground]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think Adley is likely to be here for five more full seasons?

Probably. After that who knows? He will be near 30 and only 34 catchers in the history of baseball have caught more then 1,500  games at catcher. Would the Orioles sign him to a long term contract then,probably not.  I guess if they sign him to an extension before.