Fangraphs ranks our SP as #28

[Jim'sKid26]

16 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I will say they are a lot more likely to exceed the prediction by five places then to fall five places below. 

He doesn't draft (much) pitching.

He doesn't sign (much) international pitching.

He doesn't sign much in the way of free agent pitchers.

I think it's telling that after four years on the job the top two pitching prospects in the system are from the prior regime.

So yea, maybe we exceed Fangraphs expectations and don't finish in the bottom three, but I can understand why we are there.

This. 

In a sport where pitching wins championships, the ability to draft, acquire and develop pitching is paramount.  If your primary source for pitching for the MLB team is the waiver wire, throw-ins from trades you made and the bottom of the free agent pool then you are likely to be rated at the bottom of any league wide projection. Hoping to find lightening in a bottle year upon year is a fool's errand. At some point this team needs to invest in the acquisition of top quality pitching talent. When that is going to happen is anyone's guess. 

[E-D-D-I-E]

15 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Not drafting pitching and/or just drafting the best players is fine. Not supplementing those players with proven pitchers via free agency (in particular starting pitchers) and hoping that your staff over achieves is not so fine. 

I thought I had read that pitching, the draft has been thin the last few years? Sadly I 100% subscribe to the "Buy the bats, build the pitching" mantra. But, if it hasn't been there? 

Edited January 1, 2023 by E-D-D-I-E

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, E-D-D-I-E said:

I thought I had read that pitching, the draft has been thin the last few years? Sadly I 100% subscribe to the "But the bats, build the pitching" mantra. But, if it hasn't been there? 

I mean, if your picking first, or second, or fifth, it's going to be there even if it's thin.  I'm guessing some pretty good pitchers are going to come out of the 2019-2022 drafts.

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Wilcard. I would argue that if your right on the majority of your predictions, obtaining a TOR was not necessary. I certainly have my doubts but I damn sure would love to see it. Those results would indicate a playoff birth imo. 

It am more concerned about the hitting than the pitching.   Its just so hard to project what Gunnar, Westburg, Ortiz, Stowers will do and how much playing time they will get this season.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I mean, if your picking first, or second, or fifth, it's going to be there even if it's thin.  I'm guessing some pretty good pitchers are going to come out of the 2019-2022 drafts.

Here’s the number of pitchers chosen in the 1st round each of those years (top 10 picks in parentheses):

2019: 15/41 (7th pick only)

2020: 15/37 (3, 4, 6, 10)

2021: 15/36 (2, 3, 7, 9, 10)

2022: 13/39 (3, 7, 10)

I’d say nobody’s going to question the O’s taking a position player with their two 1:1 picks.  One could argue for a pitcher over Kjerstad or Cowser.   

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s the number of pitchers chosen in the 1st round each of those years (top 10 picks in parentheses):

2019: 15/41 (7th pick only)

2020: 15/37 (3, 4, 6, 10)

2021: 15/36 (2, 3, 7, 9, 10)

2022: 13/39 (3, 7, 10)

I’d say nobody’s going to question the O’s taking a position player with their two 1:1 picks.  One could argue for a pitcher over Kjerstad or Cowser.   

There are rounds after the first.

Part of what was the advantage of picking first overall is you get to pick first in all the other rounds as well.

I think we have enough data to show that Elias prioritizes bats over arms in the draft.  If two players, one a pitcher and one a hitter, grade out evenly I think he takes the bat every time.

[RZNJ]

Bradish 4th round 2018

Seth Johnson 1st round 2019

Chayce McDermott 4th round 2021

Povich 3rd round 2021

Elias has been drafting pitchers.  You just haven’t noticed.

Juan Pena

Juan Rojas

Jean Pinto

Moises Chace

Deivy Cruz

Raul Rangel

Elias has been signing international FA.

 

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Bradish 4th round 2018

Seth Johnson 1st round 2019

Chayce McDermott 4th round 2021

Povich 3rd round 2021

Elias has been drafting pitchers.  You just haven’t noticed.

Juan Pena

Juan Rojas

Jean Pinto

Moises Chace

Deivy Cruz

Raul Rangel

Elias has been signing international FA.

 

 

 

 

I noticed.  If you look you will see how I phrased it.

I wanted to make sure some .....other poster....didn't make a list of guys he had acquired and suggested i misrepresented things.

I once again failed...

[Yardball85]

18 hours ago, Camden Yards said:

For the Orioles to make the playoffs we are going to need a few of the starters to outperform these predictions. Even if we have a great bullpen, we need to probably get to the 15-20 range. How accurate are these projections usually? 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

Sounds about right.  It is fair to assume that the starters (Voth, Kremer specifically) overachieved last year, and the Orioles did not do anything to improve the rotation. 

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

There are rounds after the first.

Part of what was the advantage of picking first overall is you get to pick first in all the other rounds as well.

I think we have enough data to show that Elias prioritizes bats over arms in the draft.  If two players, one a pitcher and one a hitter, grade out evenly I think he takes the bat every time.

I hope nothing I wrote suggests I disagree with this.  He’s been very bat-heavy in rounds 1-10, often picking up pitchers in rounds 11-20.

2019: 2 in the top 10 rounds (8th & 9th), 8 in rounds 11-20.

2020: 1 in the top 5 rounds (which is all the rounds there were that year; the pitcher was chosen in the final round).  

2021: 1 in the top 10 rounds (5th), 8 in rounds 11-20.

2022: 5 in the top 10 rounds (3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th, 10th), 7 in rounds 11-20.  Third rounder didn’t sign.   

Edited January 1, 2023 by Frobby

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I hope nothing I wrote suggests I disagree with this.  He’s been very bat-heavy in rounds 1-10, often picking up pitchers in rounds 11-20.

2019: 2 in the top 10 rounds (8th & 9th), 8 in rounds 11-20.

2020: 1 in the top 5 rounds (which is all the rounds there were that year; the pitcher was chosen in the final round).  

2021: 1 in the top 10 rounds (5th), 8 in rounds 11-20.

2022: 5 in the top 10 rounds (3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th, 10th), 7 in rounds 11-20.  Third rounder didn’t sign.   

Nope.  I was just making the point in a general sense.

I don't think any of us wanting him to take a pitcher with a first round pick that doesn't grade out just because it's a pitcher.

[Going Underground]

26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Bradish 4th round 2018

Seth Johnson 1st round 2019

Chayce McDermott 4th round 2021

Povich 3rd round 2021

Elias has been drafting pitchers.  You just haven’t noticed.

Juan Pena

Juan Rojas

Jean Pinto

Moises Chace

Deivy Cruz

Raul Rangel

Elias has been signing international FA.

 

 

 

 

Wasn't Bradish drafted by the Angels?

[Going Underground]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I noticed.  If you look you will see how I phrased it.

I wanted to make sure some .....other poster....didn't make a list of guys he had acquired and suggested i misrepresented things.

I once again failed...

Johnson drafted by the Rays.

[waroriole]

30 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Bradish 4th round 2018

Seth Johnson 1st round 2019

Chayce McDermott 4th round 2021

Povich 3rd round 2021

Elias has been drafting pitchers.  You just haven’t noticed.

Juan Pena

Juan Rojas

Jean Pinto

Moises Chace

Deivy Cruz

Raul Rangel

Elias has been signing international FA.

 

 

 

 

Elias didn’t draft any of them. 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Elias didn’t draft any of them. 

No kidding.