Fangraphs ranks our SP as #28

[Just Regular]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think Adley is likely to be here for five more full seasons?

I do.     However aggravating the sluggish beginning is now, I think these next five year's teams will be generally successful.     Obviously by the end of that period, some chance ownership different, and in the great meta-game of Let's Make a Deal, I'll hope for better luck with whatever's behind Door #2.

Its possible by 1.1.2026 you'll be suggesting, perhaps correctly, "we need to trade Rutschman now".

I think from here Adley's Supporting Cast, both front office and player personnel, are better than what Manny had in Duquette, Jones, Tillman, etc.

If we're very lucky, the kind of gravity binding the Poseys and Judges of the world to their franchises is created a bit somewhere along the line.     The '23-'27 Orioles I think will be in the top 6 more than once.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I do.     However aggravating the sluggish beginning is now, I think these next five year's teams will be generally successful.     Obviously by the end of that period, some chance ownership different, and in the great meta-game of Let's Make a Deal, I'll hope for better luck with whatever's behind Door #2.

Its possible by 1.1.2026 you'll be suggesting, perhaps correctly, "we need to trade Rutschman now".

I think from here Adley's Supporting Cast, both front office and player personnel, are better than what Manny had in Duquette, Jones, Tillman, etc.

If we're very lucky, the kind of gravity binding the Poseys and Judges of the world to their franchises is created a bit somewhere along the line.     The '23-'27 Orioles I think will be in the top 6 more than once.

Fair enough.

I don't see ownership stepping up so you would need to be in a position that the draft pick and him for a whole season is worth more than what you could get for him in trade.

[spiritof66]

Here's what bothers me about prospects for improving the starting pitching in 2023.

Elias came to the Orioles with a track record of experience and success in drafting position players. Although some of his draft decisions with the Orioles were pretty obvious, and the returns are not all in yet, Elias seems to have been very successful in acquiring position players, and he's created a MiL system in which many of them have been successful, so far, as they've climbed through the minors. 

Despite Frobby's virtual guarantee that the '23 Orioles will win 90 games (or is it 95?) , this team isn't ready to play at a level like that. We can disagree about some of the reasons for that, but I think almost all of us would put the lack of top-flight starting pitching and of rotation depth at or near the top of our lists. I have to figure Elias would, too. Elias couldn't have entered this off-season figuring that the starting pitching problem would be solved from within the system, supplemented by other teams' released and unprotected starters. Maybe GRod becomes Roger Clemens, Hall figures things out, Means returns as prime Means, and Kremer, Bradish and Gibson are solid, reliable starters. But that's not a plan for success in 2023.

My guess is that Elias intended, or at least hoped, to upgrade the starting staff by signing a free agent who would lead the staff for the next few years, or by trading some of the team's young positional talent (and maybe Mountcastle, Hays or Santander, but I doubt it), or both. As I've said elsewhere, I think the plan to sell the team has pretty much  precluded Elias from acquisitions that would require lengthy and expensive contracts. He may have thought there would be a few good starters willing to sign for a year or two, but that didn't happen. Maybe it should have, and if it didn't the fault may be John Angelos's or Elias's. Or both. Who knows?

That leaves a trade of position players, and maybe a reliever, as the only way to get there. There's nothing unusual about trading highly-regarded prospects for established talent to fill a need, but I'm not optimistic the Orioles will do that. Elias doesn't appear to have experience in making that kind of trade decision. He's shown success at stripping a team, and at drafting and hoarding talent, but can he be as effective at swapping out that talent to build a winning team if, as seems to be the case, he doesn't have the financial resources to buy the missing pieces on the open market?

Elias is in an odd position. He's been successful in tearing down and rebuilding the Orioles, and my guess is that he's well thought-of around MLB. But he doesn't have a lot of job security. He might have a career job with the Orioles, and may be able to step up to a bigger-spending, more successful franchise. On the other hand, no matter how well he does with the rebuild, he could be canned by the new owner when the team is sold, and that could happen next month or next year or three years from now. Facing that possibility, will Elias run the risk of picking the wrong guy to trade, who becomes an all-star while the guys he saves muddle along with the Orioles? Is he willing to package young talent to acquire a starter who could turn out to be the next Adam Loewen (without the hitting skills)? Is he willing to make his first big talent-acquisition this off-season, and possibly jeopardize his own reputation and marketability a couple years down the road? I don't know the answers, but so far Elias sees to be very risk-averse, and it's hard to make big trades without accepting lots of risk. Would ownership let Elias make that kind of a trade, which would limit a new owner's management team in deciding which assets, in the form of young talent, should be retained and which assets should be converted into something the team sorely needs?

Whatever the underlying reasons, it's pretty deflating to compare what's happening -- or not happening -- this off-season to my expectations, which were based in part on Elias's statements this fall. It's a pretty big gap.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Here's what bothers me about prospects for improving the starting pitching in 2023.

Elias came to the Orioles with a track record of experience and success in drafting position players. Although some of his draft decisions with the Orioles were pretty obvious, and the returns are not all in yet, Elias seems to have been very successful in acquiring position players, and he's created a MiL system in which many of them have been successful, so far, as they've climbed through the minors. 

Despite Frobby's virtual guarantee that the '23 Orioles will win 90 games (or is it 95?) , this team isn't ready to play at a level like that. We can disagree about some of the reasons for that, but I think almost all of us would put the lack of top-flight starting pitching and of rotation depth at or near the top of our lists. I have to figure Elias would, too. Elias couldn't have entered this off-season figuring that the starting pitching problem would be solved from within the system, supplemented by other teams' released and unprotected starters. Maybe GRod becomes Roger Clemens, Hall figures things out, Means returns as prime Means, and Kremer, Bradish and Gibson are solid, reliable starters. But that's not a plan for success in 2023.

My guess is that Elias intended, or at least hoped, to upgrade the starting staff by signing a free agent who would lead the staff for the next few years, or by trading some of the team's young positional talent (and maybe Mountcastle, Hays or Santander, but I doubt it), or both. As I've said elsewhere, I think the plan to sell the team has pretty much  precluded Elias from acquisitions that would require lengthy and expensive contracts. He may have thought there would be a few good starters willing to sign for a year or two, but that didn't happen. Maybe it should have, and if it didn't the fault may be John Angelos's or Elias's. Or both. Who knows?

That leaves a trade of position players, and maybe a reliever, as the only way to get there. There's nothing unusual about trading highly-regarded prospects for established talent to fill a need, but I'm not optimistic the Orioles will do that. Elias doesn't appear to have experience in making that kind of trade decision. He's shown success at stripping a team, and at drafting and hoarding talent, but can he be as effective at swapping out that talent to build a winning team if, as seems to be the case, he doesn't have the financial resources to buy the missing pieces on the open market?

Elias is in an odd position. He's been successful in tearing down and rebuilding the Orioles, and my guess is that he's well thought-of around MLB. But he doesn't have a lot of job security. He might have a career job with the Orioles, and may be able to step up to a bigger-spending, more successful franchise. On the other hand, no matter how well he does with the rebuild, he could be canned by the new owner when the team is sold, and that could happen next month or next year or three years from now. Facing that possibility, will Elias run the risk of picking the wrong guy to trade, who becomes an all-star while the guys he saves muddle along with the Orioles? Is he willing to package young talent to acquire a starter who could turn out to be the next Adam Loewen (without the hitting skills)? Is he willing to make his first big talent-acquisition this off-season, and possibly jeopardize his own reputation and marketability a couple years down the road? I don't know the answers, but so far Elias sees to be very risk-averse, and it's hard to make big trades without accepting lots of risk. Would ownership let Elias make that kind of a trade, which would limit a new owner's management team in deciding which assets, in the form of young talent, should be retained and which assets should be converted into something the team sorely needs?

Whatever the underlying reasons, it's pretty deflating to compare what's happening -- or not happening -- this off-season to my expectations, which were based in part on Elias's statements this fall. It's a pretty big gap.

This is where I think Elias might be getting a little cocky.  In regards to bringing a good starting rotation together, he's relying heavy on the emergence of G-Rod and that Kremer and Bradish can continue the improvement that they showed last year along with a Means bounceback and maybe Voth being able to replicate what he did last year after coming over from the Nationals.

That's a lot of belief in your processes, analytics, etc, and that think you can continue to tease good-to-great performances out of guys who have been viewed as mid-tier prospects and castoffs.  So much so that you decline to move forward and sign FA pitchers that most likely bolster the rotation for the next 2-4 seasons to come.

I've noted on here that I don't believe Elias is the type to swing a major trade in the offseason, he's not done it in previous offseasons and all signs point to the notion that he's not about to do it this time around.  He's aggressive at the in-season deadline when he's got a chip to trade to acquire more talent for the system, not at the ML level.

I sincerely doubt he's going to trade any of the young talent of note (anyone in the top 15-20 rankings) in order to bring in a rotation arm that could pay dividends.  And that's fine if you're going to sign talent in free agency.

But he hasn't done that.  So he's rolling the dice on him and Sig and their process and analytics to get what he currently has to reach the next level.  That's some balls.  

As it stands, this season really does revolve around G-Rod, Bradish, Kremer, Hall, Gibson and Voth.  

 

[RZNJ]

37 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Here's what bothers me about prospects for improving the starting pitching in 2023.

Elias came to the Orioles with a track record of experience and success in drafting position players. Although some of his draft decisions with the Orioles were pretty obvious, and the returns are not all in yet, Elias seems to have been very successful in acquiring position players, and he's created a MiL system in which many of them have been successful, so far, as they've climbed through the minors. 

Despite Frobby's virtual guarantee that the '23 Orioles will win 90 games (or is it 95?) , this team isn't ready to play at a level like that. We can disagree about some of the reasons for that, but I think almost all of us would put the lack of top-flight starting pitching and of rotation depth at or near the top of our lists. I have to figure Elias would, too. Elias couldn't have entered this off-season figuring that the starting pitching problem would be solved from within the system, supplemented by other teams' released and unprotected starters. Maybe GRod becomes Roger Clemens, Hall figures things out, Means returns as prime Means, and Kremer, Bradish and Gibson are solid, reliable starters. But that's not a plan for success in 2023.

My guess is that Elias intended, or at least hoped, to upgrade the starting staff by signing a free agent who would lead the staff for the next few years, or by trading some of the team's young positional talent (and maybe Mountcastle, Hays or Santander, but I doubt it), or both. As I've said elsewhere, I think the plan to sell the team has pretty much  precluded Elias from acquisitions that would require lengthy and expensive contracts. He may have thought there would be a few good starters willing to sign for a year or two, but that didn't happen. Maybe it should have, and if it didn't the fault may be John Angelos's or Elias's. Or both. Who knows?

That leaves a trade of position players, and maybe a reliever, as the only way to get there. There's nothing unusual about trading highly-regarded prospects for established talent to fill a need, but I'm not optimistic the Orioles will do that. Elias doesn't appear to have experience in making that kind of trade decision. He's shown success at stripping a team, and at drafting and hoarding talent, but can he be as effective at swapping out that talent to build a winning team if, as seems to be the case, he doesn't have the financial resources to buy the missing pieces on the open market?

Elias is in an odd position. He's been successful in tearing down and rebuilding the Orioles, and my guess is that he's well thought-of around MLB. But he doesn't have a lot of job security. He might have a career job with the Orioles, and may be able to step up to a bigger-spending, more successful franchise. On the other hand, no matter how well he does with the rebuild, he could be canned by the new owner when the team is sold, and that could happen next month or next year or three years from now. Facing that possibility, will Elias run the risk of picking the wrong guy to trade, who becomes an all-star while the guys he saves muddle along with the Orioles? Is he willing to package young talent to acquire a starter who could turn out to be the next Adam Loewen (without the hitting skills)? Is he willing to make his first big talent-acquisition this off-season, and possibly jeopardize his own reputation and marketability a couple years down the road? I don't know the answers, but so far Elias sees to be very risk-averse, and it's hard to make big trades without accepting lots of risk. Would ownership let Elias make that kind of a trade, which would limit a new owner's management team in deciding which assets, in the form of young talent, should be retained and which assets should be converted into something the team sorely needs?

Whatever the underlying reasons, it's pretty deflating to compare what's happening -- or not happening -- this off-season to my expectations, which were based in part on Elias's statements this fall. It's a pretty big gap.

, Frobby didn’t virtually guarantee anything.   He said he could make a case for the team winning 90 games.  You could be right about the ownership thing.   You could be right about Elias.   It’s guesswork as of now.   Planning on Grayson Rodriguez to be a really good starter this year might be a bad plan but it’s not a crazy idea.