Elias expecting Rodriguez to make rotation in ST

[waroriole]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here’s the quote from the article:

"We are very serious about getting into the playoffs," Elias said Sunday on MLB Network Radio. 

"Despite the difficulties in our division, we think we’ve got a real good shot to get into the postseason this year. We almost got in last year. The time is now to start to tap into the depth in our farm system."

Amen.   

He’s very serious. He means business. Lol

[Tony-OH]

17 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

Agreed, Akin should already have a spot sewn up. I don't think Vespi is going to be ready for opening day with his hernia surgery, so that may be Hall's spot to start, unless Politi is lights out in ST.

Good call on Vespi, forgot about his surgery for second. Politi could very well get that last spot if he looks good this spring. Elias and company have been pretty good at identifying that last one or two spots in the bullpen talent off other teams DFAs so maybe that will work with the Rule 5 as well.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Good call on Vespi, forgot about his surgery for second. Politi could very well get that last spot if he looks good this spring. Elias and company have been pretty good at identifying that last one or two spots in the bullpen talent off other teams DFAs so maybe that will work with the Rule 5 as well.

I don’t see the side for Politi unless an injury occurs.

Bautista, Tate, Perez, Givens, Baker and Akin and Voth are in.

Tyler Wells is in the pen as well, unless an injury occurs and he’s in the rotation.

None of those guys are getting bumped unless a trade or injury occurs. 

 

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Good call on Vespi, forgot about his surgery for second. Politi could very well get that last spot if he looks good this spring. Elias and company have been pretty good at identifying that last one or two spots in the bullpen talent off other teams DFAs so maybe that will work with the Rule 5 as well.

With these 8 in the pen it will probably take an injury for Politi to make the team. Bautista, Perez, Tate, Givens, Baker, Akin, Voth, Wells.

 

[Sports Guy]

I think the bigger question w/r/t Politi is if he can show well enough that he pushes the team to make a trade. I guess that’s always possible.

[TommyPickles]

Personally, I'm fine with rolling with the in-house OF options.

I want to see more Bradish. I don't want to see Cowser blocked. I still believe in Hays and Mullins (both under team control till 2026).

Over the past two seasons, Mullins has been worth 9.5 bWAR, Hays has been worth 5.4 bWAR.

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t see the side for Politi unless an injury occurs.

Bautista, Tate, Perez, Givens, Baker and Akin and Voth are in.

Tyler Wells is in the pen as well, unless an injury occurs and he’s in the rotation.

None of those guys are getting bumped unless a trade or injury occurs. 

 

I was discussing if the Orioles want Wells to be starting pitching depth, they could send him to AAA to do so since it doesn't appear to be a spot for him in the Orioles rotation right now. I guess in theory he's in competition with Kremer and Bradish for the last two spots so a good spring could see him make it, but we know Elias doesn't like to lose useable arms.

If they feel Politi can help them, they will keep him sending someone to AAA. It makes sense to have someone stretch out and ready to come up if there is an injury in the rotation. If they keep Wells in the pen and use him as a middle reliever/set up guy, he won't be stretch out enough to start. 

But if they send him to AAA, if the timing is right, he's available to come up and get dropped into the rotation. 

Now, the Orioles could feel Voth is that swingman guy but again, they have stretch him out enough to get to 5 innings without wrecking their bullpen with a bullpen game.

I think a lot of this has to do with how Politi looks. If he's just meh, then I think they send him back and Wells makes the team in the pen where he's probably better off anyways. 

It's definitely an interesting situation to watch this spring.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I was discussing if the Orioles want Wells to be starting pitching depth, they could send him to AAA to do so since it doesn't appear to be a spot for him in the Orioles rotation right now. I guess in theory he's in competition with Kremer and Bradish for the last two spots so a good spring could see him make it, but we know Elias doesn't like to lose useable arms.

If they feel Politi can help them, they will keep him sending someone to AAA. It makes sense to have someone stretch out and ready to come up if there is an injury in the rotation. If they keep Wells in the pen and use him as a middle reliever/set up guy, he won't be stretch out enough to start. 

But if they send him to AAA, if the timing is right, he's available to come up and get dropped into the rotation. 

Now, the Orioles could feel Voth is that swingman guy but again, they have stretch him out enough to get to 5 innings without wrecking their bullpen with a bullpen game.

I think a lot of this has to do with how Politi looks. If he's just meh, then I think they send him back and Wells makes the team in the pen where he's probably better off anyways. 

It's definitely an interesting situation to watch this spring.

I can’t see any scenario where Wells goes to AAA unless he looks like complete garbage in ST.

He was arguably their best starter last year before he got hurt.

The year before, he was arguably their best BP pitcher.

He’s clearly one of the better arms, in either spot, on the team and he has had good ML success. Sending him down, just so you can keep an unproven rule 5 guy, isn’t something I can see happening.

I think the better bet is someone is dealt (Tate?) if they feel they have a lot of depth out there.

Now, the one guy who could be in trouble is Baker.  Personally, I won’t be surprised if Baker is one of the 3 best arms this year out of the pen..in fact, I’m expecting it.

Otoh, he’s unproven and was shaky last year. If he comes to ST and looks bad, he could be in trouble.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Sports Guy

[wildcard]

JMO but if Wells is healthy he is in the majors.  I don't like the idea of sending him to the minors.   The guy has major league stuff and is 28 years old.

[Just Regular]

Recalling "reliever Tyler Wells" since the Irvin get...here he is in 2021 yearlong as a reliever throwing a K-BB% season about the same as Jordan Romano, 22nd MLB-wide.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=9,d

Felix Bautista's 2022 was 15th MLB-wide.

I kind of feel like Wells has a chance to be in a 1-2 punch at the back of the pen, above the Tate-Perez-Givens-Baker group.     Hopefully the recent results of Taylor Rogers pulling about the same contract as Zach Eflin makes all pitchers like Tyler Wells less sensitive about roles in the staff.

Wells is similar to Jorge Lopez, except that while Lopez's expected strong reliever performance was theoretical, Wells has even logged a good year in the role.    Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin aren't "better than him" - they're just different tools for a team.

 

 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Just Regular

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I can’t see any scenario where Wells goes to AAA unless he looks like complete garbage in ST.

He was arguably their best starter last year before he got hurt.

The year before, he was arguably their best BP pitcher.

He’s clearly one of the better arms, in either spot, on the team and he has had good ML success. Sending him down, just so you can keep an unproven rule 5 guy, isn’t something I can see happening.

I think the better bet is someone is dealt (Tate?) if they feel they have a lot of depth out there.

Now, the one guy who could be in trouble is Baker.  Personally, I won’t be surprised if Baker is one of the 3 best arms this year out of the pen..in fact, I’m expecting it.

Otoh, he’s unproven and was shaky last year. If he comes to ST and looks bad, he could be in trouble.

You're missing my point on sending Wells to AAA. It is not because Politi would be a better option, it would be to give the team depth in starting pitching available at AAA.

Now, Tate could very well be moved in a trade though those trades rarely happen in spring training, and Baker does have two options, but let's say they go with Wells in a middle relief role and then someone goes down in the rotation at the end of April or early May? 

Wells is no longer an option because he's not stretched out. Now, the one thing we probably both agree on is that Wells is most likely a better reliever than starter. Wells will be 28-years old next year and has never thrown more than 119.1 inning in any full season ever, including the minor leagues.

Well's fragile health could actually be in his favor for them NOT to do what I'm suggesting they may do, since they may realize he only has so many pitches in his arm each year and they could maximize that out in the pen.

Personally, I like Wells in the pen where his stuff played up and his ability to stretch out gives him more value out there. 

So it really depends on a few things including how good Politi looks. Now I didn't see anything special from Politi's stuff when I looked at a few of his games but the result speak for themselves so there is some deception or spin rates/true spin that enables him to have more success than his visual stuff suggests.

Now, the Orioles could send Baker back to AAA and keep both Wells and Politi or someone could get hurt and all of this is a moot point.

My only issue who is the starting pitching depth in AAA if someone goes down? DL Hall? Potentially sure, especially is he's throwing the way he was throwing in May of last year as a starter.

So I guess in the end, I agree with you that Wells will most likely make the team, but IF they decide he's their 6th starter and they don't think he can stay stretched out enough to go into the rotation with an injury, they could decide to send him to AAA to stay stretched out. 

[RZNJ]

Tony, it might be logical but I don’t see any scenario where Wells goes to AAA.   Voth probably acts as a long man and possible piggyback for Rodríguez. He’ll be somewhat stretched out.   Good chance Hall is starting at Norfolk for more depth.   And Zimmerman, Baumann, Vallimont.

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Tony, it might be logical but I don’t see any scenario where Wells goes to AAA.   Voth probably acts as a long man and possible piggyback for Rodríguez. He’ll be somewhat stretched out.   Good chance Hall is starting at Norfolk for more depth.   And Zimmerman, Baumann, Vallimont.

Well I guess the only scenario in which I brought up is a long shot, but overall, I agree with you guys it's unlikely though I don't think Elias wants any of those AAA options outside of Hall starting for him this year if they don't need to. 

Saying that, I forgot about one other guy and that's Watkins. Actually Watkins could be that AAA starting pitcher guy behind Hall so thinking about him, there is no need for Wells to go to AAA to be that depth.

So I agree with you guys now, I don't see Wells going to AAA.