Keith Law’s O’s top 20

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Stotle said:

I think you can also argue player dev was not great with that group. There should have been more impact from the late-00s/early-10s group of prospects. Some of that is on the players (like a certain 1rd arm) but a lot is on the org for not having a unified approach to developing its players and understanding the right things to emphasize. Hindsight, of course.

No doubt. Even by the pre technology standard of that era, the player development as a hole was never very good. That doesn't mean every coach or manager was bad, they weren't, but they were never on the same sheet of paper and while players were given "IDPs", how "individualized" each were and by whom has to be questioned.

Saying that, besides Arrieta, it's not like a bunch of Orioles drafted and developed guys became stars after leaving the organization either. 

Now, it's worth mentioning that the quality of the scouting has improved as well overall. Gone are the days of drafting guys like Josh Hart, Adam Hall or giving big overslot money to Connor Narron and not even seeing a carrying tool outside of speed with Hart or Hall. It never ceased to amaze me after the first instructional league to get reports that started with "WTF" when I would ask how a certain player looked after being a previous year high draft pick.

 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Stotle said:

Have to say I agree Baltimore was never really close to winning a WS and to this day I am sad the O's abandoned continuing to build up the org for a few years of success. It gutted the system, involved trading depth guys away for short term stuff and led to disasters link the Chris Davis extension. I get why some are fans of Duquette's, but to me it was the epitome of "get to the playoffs and see if you can get hot/lucky." There was never any threat Baltimore was on track to be a long-term power during those years. Under Elias, there is at least a foundation being built. Just too bad it's at a time when so many other teams are doing similar. Getting a competitive advantage in the division is not going to be easy. 

I don't think anyone here would want Duquette here over Elias so I'm really sure what our point is here. I would also argue that the 2014 Orioles were definitely a legitimate World Series team and may have ended up World Champions had they not run into that Royals team that got white hot at the right time for them. 

Had that happened, and the Toronto thing never happened, who knows how he would have been though of and where this organization would have ended up? At the end of the day, the Orioles were in playoff contention in 4 of his 6 years here and made the playoffs in 3. 

You have to go back to the 70s to find the last time an Orioles team made the playoffs three time in six years.

Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Keegan Akins, Dean Kremer, John Means and Mike Yastrzemski (who was given away by Elias and has been worth 9.5 WAR) are all products of the Duquette era who all (minor Yaz) have a chance to be a part of a winning future here in Baltimore under Elias. 

So while there should be no doubt to anyone that Elias is the right choice now, I think it's wrong to diminish what Duquette accomplished while in Baltimore, particularly the first three years when he had full autonomy. 

 

[Stotle]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think anyone here would want Duquette here over Elias so I'm really sure what our point is here. I would also argue that the 2014 Orioles were definitely a legitimate World Series team and may have ended up World Champions had they not run into that Royals team that got white hot at the right time for them. 

Had that happened, and the Toronto thing never happened, who knows how he would have been though of and where this organization would have ended up? At the end of the day, the Orioles were in playoff contention in 4 of his 6 years here and made the playoffs in 3. 

You have to go back to the 70s to find the last time an Orioles team made the playoffs three time in six years.

Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Keegan Akins, Dean Kremer, John Means and Mike Yastrzemski (who was given away by Elias and has been worth 9.5 WAR) are all products of the Duquette era who all (minor Yaz) have a chance to be a part of a winning future here in Baltimore under Elias. 

So while there should be no doubt to anyone that Elias is the right choice now, I think it's wrong to diminish what Duquette accomplished while in Baltimore, particularly the first three years when he had full autonomy. 

 

All I will say is the days are over of me considering a FO "successful" for a couple playoff appearances followed by a win total of 75 (2017) and recognition that a complete tear down and rebuild is needed. It's great that once the Orioles decided they were going to burn the future to make some playoff runs that they did it well enough to have a few years of success in a row. But I'd gladly give back those playoff years to be in a position to compete as a functioning and competent organization in 2018, rather than 2022. Duquette is not an idiot. He was fine executing a plan. I don't like that Baltimore settled on that course as "the plan". 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 At the end of the day, the Orioles were in playoff contention in 4 of his 6 years here and made the playoffs in 3. 

Minor nitpick - Dan was here 7 years, not 6.  He made the playoffs three times (2012, 2014, 2016) and missed four (2013, 2015, 2017, 2018).

I’ll put it succinctly: he doesn’t deserve all the credit for everything good that happened while he was here, and he doesn’t deserve the blame for everything that went wrong.  But he deserves a share of both.  It’s all history now and I think the organizational hierarchy is a lot healthier today than at any time while Peter Angelos was running the show.  

[wildcard]

The thing that scares me is we don't know how long Elias/Sig/Holt will be here.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The thing that scares me is we don't know how long Elias/Sig/Holt will be here.

I would have guessed a Cole Irvin extension.

[Il BuonO]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

It bothered me he would go after guys like Kim (Fitness) and Mountcastle (approach) while not saying anything about Tillman or Jones.

Jones was the face of the franchise for many years, so that wasn’t happening. And what about Tillman? Idk, but I was happy to watch him play much better than many ever thought he could. They got tremendous mileage out of him, but they probably should have cut him loose after the shoulder issue. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Il BuonO

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Jones was the face of the franchise for many years, so that wasn’t happening. And what about Tillman? Idk, but I was happy to watch him play much better than many ever thought he could. They got tremendous mileage out of him, but they probably should have cut him loose after the shoulder issue. 

He showed up one spring looking noticeably heavier.  (was why I grouped him with Kim)

[Il BuonO]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He showed up one spring looking noticeably heavier.  (was why I grouped him with Kim)

Ah, yes, I do remember that.

[Il BuonO]

One other thing that hurt the team’s chances against those white hot Royals; the Orioles were without their big slugging first baseman because? Yup, that should have been enough to make sure he didn’t get any kind of contract from the Orioles let alone the monstrosity he did. 

There’s no way of knowing, of course, how he would have performed, but it was in the midst of a productive time for him.

[deward]

3 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

One other thing that hurt the team’s chances against those white hot Royals; the Orioles were without their big slugging first baseman because? Yup, that should have been enough to make sure he didn’t get any kind of contract from the Orioles let alone the monstrosity he did. 

There’s no way of knowing, of course, how he would have performed, but it was in the midst of a productive time for him.

Davis wasn't very good that year, but they were also missing Manny and Wieters. I don't know how much difference it would have made, given how the Royals were playing at the time, but it would have been nice if they could have been at full strength.

[OriolesMagic83]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which is the more difficult position to come into as a GM?

A job in which you can come in and name the person you want to be manager or a job in which you come into with a charismatic, media savvy veteran manager who has prior experience as a GM and the ear of the owner?

 

That has zero to do with how Buck is at being an actual manager.

Do you think Elias has to worry about Hyde going to the owner over personnel decisions?

Probably why the O's were lucky to get Elias.  Any experienced, in demand GM probably laughed at the O's GM opening.  1 of 30 GM spots or not, I think a lot of assistant GMs would prefer taking a GM position w/ the O's knowing how they would be limited and being set up to fail.  I believe the O's had multiple assistant GMs turn down the O's, Alex Anthopolous comes to mind. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, OriolesMagic83 said:

Probably why the O's were lucky to get Elias.  Any experienced, in demand GM probably laughed at the O's GM opening.  1 of 30 GM spots or not, I think a lot of assistant GMs would prefer taking a GM position w/ the O's knowing how they would be limited and being set up to fail.  I believe the O's had multiple assistant GMs turn down the O's, Alex Anthopolous comes to mind. 

You spelled Tony LaCava wrong.

[Tony-OH]

Man, I'm glad this is our last real OFFSEASON thread! lol

[OriolesMagic83]

On 2/12/2023 at 10:46 AM, Jammer7 said:

I agree there were prospects in the Duquette era. Obviously, Dan had obstacles in his way in Baltimore that prevented him from replicating what he did in Montreal and Boston. I wonder how many of those you mentioned in this would be in the current top 30 for the Orioles if you ranked them just before their promotion to the Orioles?

Wieters - probably 2 behind Gunnar

Matusz - around where Rom is 20-25, at best

Arrieta - 20-25

Britton - 25-30

Tillman - maybe 25-30

Bergesen, Bergen, David Hernandez, Reimold and Turner off the list.

If the same development system was in place, I believe it would be vastly different. The scouts did bring in talent, and the list of failed high draft picks is long. Even among this list, most got better in the majors.

Machado - did not stay in the minors long enough to rise to quite where Gunnar is, but he would certainly be top 3-5 with Gunnar, Wieters, and maybe Grayson ahead of him. Not sure I would put Holliday in front of him, maybe.

Schoop - again, did not stay in minors long enough to gain higher prospect status. Maybe 15-20.

I did this based on memory, but I thought it was an interesting exercise.

Matusz was at one point the #4 prospect in baseball.  By the time of his debut, his star had dimmed some, but he would have been a top 100 prospect and easily in the O's top 10. 

Keith Law, of ESPN.com, sees Matusz developing into a number one or number two starter.  Kevin Goldstein projects Matusz as a “top-end starter and an All-Star.” Many scouts and writers admit that the reason Matusz fell lower on prospect rankings is because he really hasn’t pitched a lot in the minor leagues. Obviously the Orioles love his makeup and have seen him toy with minor leaguers enough that they believe it’s time he shows his stuff at the big league level.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/233883-brian-matusz-another-orioles-top-prospect-primed-for-stardom