Grayson Rodriguez Expectations

[Sports Guy]

What are you expectations for GRod in 2023?

Mine are 135 IP with an ERA in the 3.7-4.1 area.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Sports Guy

[VICIOUS]

12-3,   3.5ish era, Allstar

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What are you expectations for GRod in 2023?

Mine are 135 IP with an ERA in the 3.7-4.1 area.

Sounds reasonable.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What are you expectations for GRod in 2023?

Mine are 135 IP with an ERA in the 3.7-4.1 area.

Sounds about right.   I’d be happy with that in year one.  

[Sports Guy]

Other things I’m looking for:

1) Is his K rate 8 or higher?  

2) Is he missing bats?

3) Can he throw strikes at a league average (usually around 63.5%) or higher rate?

4) can he keep his BB rate at 3.5 or better?

5) K:BB 2 to 1 or better.

I feel if he is doing those things, combined with the numbers I said, we should all feel really good about his long term outlook.

I know many feel good about it anyway but we still need to see it translate on the field in the majors.

 

Edited February 9, 2023 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

I would be disappointed if the K rate wasn't higher than 9 per 9 IP, based on his minor league numbers.    I think the determining factor with GRod is going to be his fastball command.   If he can keep his walks closer to 2 per 9 IP, I think he'll be really good.   I suspect that they are going to be around 3 or worse.

[waroriole]

My expectations are 140ish IP with a 3.50 ERA. He was just so dominant in the minors that I don’t see a big learning curve in MLB. Agreed that FB command will be the telling sign and could limit him at first. 

[waroriole]

46 minutes ago, VICIOUS said:

12-3,   3.5ish era, Allstar

Not that W-L record means anything, but I don’t see him pitching deep enough into games to accumulate many wins. 

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would be disappointed if the K rate wasn't higher than 9 per 9 IP, based on his minor league numbers.    I think the determining factor with GRod is going to be his fastball command.   If he can keep his walks closer to 2 per 9 IP, I think he'll be really good.   I suspect that they are going to be around 3 or worse.

I’d be disappointed in that long term. But for year 1, where learning curves and stuff like that are there, it wouldn’t bother me if he was in the league average range for a starter.

[HakunaSakata]

I'm basically hoping for Hunter Greene's stat line from 2022, but with a better ERA (sub 4.00). 

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would be disappointed if the K rate wasn't higher than 9 per 9 IP, based on his minor league numbers.    I think the determining factor with GRod is going to be his fastball command.   If he can keep his walks closer to 2 per 9 IP, I think he'll be really good.   I suspect that they are going to be around 3 or worse.

You look at him last year, he had 14 walks in 56 innings (2.25 per 9) before his injury, then 14 in 19.1 innings when he came back (6.52 per 9).   I think if he’s back to his pre-injury form, his odds of staying under 3.00 are pretty good, though obviously, rookie pitchers tend to have higher BB/9 rates in their debut major league season than they had in the minors.  Whether he’s back to his pre-injury form is an open question, but I see no reason he shouldn’t be.

[Aristotelian]

Expecting 125 IP, 3.25 ERA. Reasonably hoping for 2.75.

Not sure why people are being so conservative. 4.00 ERA would be a disappointment for me. Not shocking, but still disappointing. 

[Moose Milligan]

I'm expecting him to be disappointing.  Just a gut feeling.  

[joelala]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm expecting him to be disappointing.  Just a gut feeling.  

Me too. 

[HakunaSakata]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Expecting 125 IP, 3.25 ERA. Reasonably hoping for 2.75.

Not sure why people are being so conservative. 4.00 ERA would be a disappointment for me. Not shocking, but still disappointing. 

Your comment made me curious what the league average ERA was last season. I was shocked to find out is was under 4.00 (3.97). Now I'm wondering if we have any pitchers on our staff, other than Rodriguez, who will be "league average". I'm not so sure...