Grayson Rodriguez Expectations

[OriolesMagic83]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

John Means sort of did it.  134 OPS+ in his first season, 103 in his second (which was the Covid year), 123 in his third.  Not bad for a guy who was a borderline top 30 prospect.  

Good point on Means, but he wasn't really a heralded prospect.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

John Means sort of did it.  134 OPS+ in his first season, 103 in his second (which was the Covid year), 123 in his third.  Not bad for a guy who was a borderline top 30 prospect.  

Rodrigo Lopez too his rookie season he was 15-9 with a 120 ERA+ and pitched 196.2 innings. That's pretty good for a rookie starting pitcher.

[Jim'sKid26]

On 2/11/2023 at 2:39 AM, Frobby said:

It’s not really analogous.  Bedard had missed more than a full year with TJ surgery and only threw 19.1 innings in 2003.   He also skipped AAA entirely and had thrown only about 70 innings of AA. And, Bedard just generally wasn’t as refined a pitcher when he reached the majors as GRod is now.  

Also, Bedard entered the league at a time when offense was at a peak, and he didn’t benefit from the current park dimensions.   His 4.59 ERA was good for an ERA+ of 99.   Last year that would nave equated to about 4.10.

OK. That's all fair. But what data or past experience are your predictions based on? 

I used Bedard, flawed comparison or not, to show an example of a pitcher who was injured and need a ramp up year before he became a top SP. Kind of in the spirit of the enemy of good is perfect. Of course every situation is different. I get that.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

OK. That's all fair. But what data or past experience are your predictions based on? 

I used Bedard, flawed comparison or not, to show an example of a pitcher who was injured and need a ramp up year before he became a top SP. Kind of in the spirit of the enemy of good is perfect. Of course every situation is different. I get that.

First of all, I’m not making predictions.  I have expectations.  I’m nowhere near confident enough in them to label them predictions.  

I listed in this thread four outside projections that had Rodriguez between 3.33 - 3.98.  Also, I listed several pitchers who either debuted or were still rookies last year who posted sub-4.00 ERA’s.  None of them were as highly regarded as Rodriguez IMO, so I see no reason he couldn’t do as well or better.   So, based on all that, I’ll be disappointed if he’s not a MOR starter or better.   But certainly there’s a risk he’ll be worse than I expect.  

One more thing I’ll throw out there.  I already mentioned earlier that ZiPS’ 50th percentile ERA projection for Rodriguez is 3.98.   I’ll add that his 80th percentile projection is 3.21, 20th percentile is 4.86.   So, there’s lots of ways this could go.   

 

[AnythingO's]

For me it comes down to how do they manage his innings, do they plan for him to be available in playoffs. I think they do limit him early to have him late and hope he is a difference maker. So 10 starts @ 3 innings, 10 @ 4 innings, 10 @ 5 innings gets you around 120 innings. I think he could go maybe 140 innings so he is available end of season. That also means he could air it out early knowing he won't be going long and could dominate. I hope for 3.75 ERA boosted by early success before settling in at league average late.

[Can_of_corn]

37 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

For me it comes down to how do they manage his innings, do they plan for him to be available in playoffs. I think they do limit him early to have him late and hope he is a difference maker. So 10 starts @ 3 innings, 10 @ 4 innings, 10 @ 5 innings gets you around 120 innings. I think he could go maybe 140 innings so he is available end of season. That also means he could air it out early knowing he won't be going long and could dominate. I hope for 3.75 ERA boosted by early success before settling in at league average late.

Would be cool if they saved innings for the playoffs and then just missed the playoffs.

[AnythingO's]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would be cool if they saved innings for the playoffs and then just missed the playoffs.

Was that supposed to be in green font?  If not we have very different definitions of cool. If you are implying that the "saved innings" might have been enough to make the playoffs but he would be shutdown, then I would prefer that outcome as well.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, AnythingO's said:

Was that supposed to be in green font?  If not we have very different definitions of cool. If you are implying that the "saved innings" might have been enough to make the playoffs but he would be shutdown, then I would prefer that outcome as well.

I think it would be bad for them to plan his workload around the assumption the playoffs are a given.

 

[AnythingO's]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it would be bad for them to plan his workload around the assumption the playoffs are a given.

I think the plan is to get him thru the whole season healthy without having to shut him down and that he gets enough innings this year so there are no restrictions on innings next year. Whether that number is 120 or 140 is irrelevant because either is enough so that he won't be restricted next year.

[Es4M11]

Well, how's everyone feeling now? Thought this might be worth a revisit. I came into this season somewhat pessimistic. Worse than I thought so far.

[orioles119]

46 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

Well, how's everyone feeling now? Thought this might be worth a revisit. I came into this season somewhat pessimistic. Worse than I thought so far.

Ov-er-re-act *clap**clap**clap**clap**clap*

[DirtyBird]

Looking forward to him reaching his inning limit.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Looking forward to him reaching his inning limit.

He’ll never reach at tonight’s rate.

[Es4M11]

31 minutes ago, orioles119 said:

Ov-er-re-act *clap**clap**clap**clap**clap*

How so? Rodriguez does not look good. And while I didn't think he was going to light the world on fire from day 1, I sure as hell expected better results than what we have witnessed so far.

[Gurgi]

He was awful.  He honestly has not looked good since his injury last year.  He is still throwing hard at 99 so there is hope.  I think he could get some help pitching in AAA and proving he can dominate.  Maybe make him prove he can go 6 innings and a sub 3 ERA in AAA before we bring his show back up here.