Matchups

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

The OP has both pitchers in the rotation to begin the season.   Hope they are not awful but they are going to need to show they are the best O's pitchers for the job.  Elias/Hyde/Holt will have options this season.

I’m sure if healthy they’ll both be in the rotation unless something very unexpected comes up.  What order they’ll be in to start the year is a tougher guess.   My gut is that Gibson gets the opening day nod, as the veteran on the staff.  Beyond that, I don’t know.  Past success against our opponents could be a factor, but not the only one.

[maybenxtyr]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its not about ST stats.   It about improving pitches.  You really think the O's are going to let Gibson and Irvin pitch like they did last season?

I'm sure that they will try to tweak a pitch or grip here or there, but they're not going to reinvent the wheel... especially with a pitcher like Gibson.

 

Irvin, I have no idea. I didn't even know he was a ML pitcher prior to the O's trading for him.

 

The pitching is much like the hitting, in that most of the improvement will come from the young guys.

[Lurker]

 

Let’s see who comes to ST fit and ready to pitch. Let’s see who shows up overweight and out of shape. Let’s see who spent the winter improving their craft of sitting on a beach drinking.

Once “we” see who is hungry and ready for a pennant race  OR who is happy cashing checks, we will have a better idea of how the rotation will shake out. 
 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, maybenxtyr said:

I'm sure that they will try to tweak a pitch or grip here or there, but they're not going to reinvent the wheel... especially with a pitcher like Gibson.

 

Irvin, I have no idea. I didn't even know he was a ML pitcher prior to the O's trading for him.

 

The pitching is much like the hitting, in that most of the improvement will come from the young guys.

Better not be mostly from the young guys if Gibson and Irvin are going to pitch 170-180 innings each.

[maybenxtyr]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Better not be mostly from the young guys if Gibson and Irvin are going to pitch 170-180 innings each.

They just have to be adequate. Neither of them are mid rotation pitchers. Spring Training isn't going to change that.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

They just have to be adequate. Neither of them are mid rotation pitchers. Spring Training isn't going to change that.

Will adequate be good enough for the O's to make the playoffs?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Will adequate be good enough for the O's to make the playoffs?

If it isn't they won't make it.

I don't think Elias is going to make a big pitching acquisition to bolster the rotation in hopes of a Wildcard berth.

He knows who he brought in.

[Just Regular]

56 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Holt and company want to do more than observe.  They need to improve pitches.  They already have profiles of Boston, Rangers, Yankees and A's.  I am sure they have plans on who they think can face who if they achieve what they want to do this ST.

 

I agree a good amount of energy goes into attacking Bats, but I think the realm of that is more the relievers you are going to stream through your bullpen than the sequence of the Twice Through The Order guys at the beginning of the game.

In terms of the BOS-TEX trip, the conventional wisdom hiding lefties from Fenway, and the hopeful occasion of Grayson's debut in the first five games (he won't pitch before Irvin), I would like to see Gibson-Kremer-Bradish-Irvin-Grayson.

The 2 v. 3 is the squishiest part for two guys with similar peripherals, but Kremer's more fortunate 2022 ERA can be tiebreaker for that nothingburger.

[AnythingO's]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Unlikely.    The O's mgt are openly saying that they intend to make the playoffs.  In so doing they have making a bet.    They are betting they can:

1) Take a veteran that had a 5.05 ERA in Gibson and  can turn him into a 3.75 ERA guy.   And do the same with Irvin you had a 5.29 ERA away from home and now he will play 29 or more games away from the Coliseum.     A 4.42 ERA like Lyles had will not do.   This time the O's need to have a rotation that is in the top 6 in the AL in ERA.   Holt better be as good as I hope he is.

2)  Take two guys that has good halves in Wells and Bradish and make them pitch a whole season like they did in halves.

3)  Get Kremer to repeat; get GRod to give them a good 100-120 innings.  Gets Means to come back  healthy and effectiveness for the 2nd half.   While hoping that Hall finds his command.   

I think a team starter 3.75 ERA is required to make the playoffs.  That may be good enough for 6th in the AL.

Its a aggressive task and they will be working hard on it from the first day of ST.   They have already did the planning of who needs to pitch vs what team.  Now they have to make it happen.

1) Took Lyles from 5.15 to 4.43 ERA so the "Holt effect" is -0.72 ERA improvement so Gibson from 5.05 to 4.33 ERA and Irvin from 3.98 to 3.26 ERA 

2) Wells won't be in the rotation all season baring injury, would be happy for him to repeat.

3) Kremer and Bradish will be lucky to have 4.0 ERA, GRod maybe a little better 3.75 ERA, anything from Means will be gravy.

With just the minor improvements above, fewer starts by cannon fodder, and the BP holding form you should get to 3.75 ERA fro, 3.p7 last year.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Will adequate be good enough for the O's to make the playoffs?

I hate vague terms like adequate.  I have no idea what that means.  

I think a reasonable objective is to allow 50 fewer runs than last year.   Most of that will have to come from the rotation, which has more room to improve than the bullpen.  By my calculation, that would be about a 3.95 ERA from the starters.  I think it’s possible but can’t speculate about exactly how the team would get there.  Some guys will improve, others will regress, and hopefully the Lyles replacements do better than Lyles did, but there are other ways to get there if they don’t.  Last year we only had 41 starts from pitchers who had a sub-4 ERA as a starter.  That number has to increase significantly or the math doesn’t work.  
 

[RZNJ]

Gibson and Irvin both have career splits which suggest they’ll be good in the first half.  Of course Irvin’s history is a lot shorter than Gibson.  Both have 1st half ERA in the 3.90 range.   I suspect they’ll help the Orioles get out to a good first half.    If they do, do they roll the dice with both in the 2nd half?

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Gibson and Irvin both have career splits which suggest they’ll be good in the first half.  Of course Irvin’s history is a lot shorter than Gibson.  Both have 1st half ERA in the 3.90 range.   I suspect they’ll help the Orioles get out to a good first half.    If they do, do they roll the dice with both in the 2nd half?

Its an interesting way to look at it.  Though the Oakland Coliseum factor is still there for Irvin.   If the two of them could be 3.90 in the 1st half and some combination of Kremer, Bradish, GRod and Wells combine for a 3.50 in the first half the O's should be in contention during the 1st half.  

Then in the 2nd half Means and maybe Hall can be factored in.    I think in this case Gibson and Irvin get there 2nd half starts on a games by game basis.  Irvin can be optioned at any point and Gibson could be either traded, send to the pen or released depending on the market.

Kremer 3.55 ERA  and Bradish 3.28 ERA in the 2nd half last season were strong.  Voth had a 2.88 ERA in the 2nd half last season.   GRod has probably reaches his innings limits.  Wells has no history of being well in the 2nd half as a starter.    Means and Hall's ability to pitch well in the 2nd half could be important.   Or the O's could acquire a starter at the deadline if they are contending.

[eddie83]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If it isn't they won't make it.

I don't think Elias is going to make a big pitching acquisition to bolster the rotation in hopes of a Wildcard berth.

He knows who he brought in.

This is where a Means can help. 
 

I don’t see him making a big acquisition unless it’s a player with years of control. That said if they are in legit contention I think he adds to the team. That schedule after the All-Star break is brutal. 

[Frobby]

It’s pretty artificial to think that if Gibson and/or Irvin pitches well in the first half, the team will quickly pull the plug on them in the second half because historically they’ve had bad second half splits.   Truth is, they’ll only get pulled if they are really bad for a sustained stretch of time.   But hopefully the O’s will have a plan to prevent them from having a big second half drop-off.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

This is where a Means can help. 
 

I don’t see him making a big acquisition unless it’s a player with years of control. That said if they are in legit contention I think he adds to the team. That schedule after the All-Star break is brutal. 

I expect him to add to the team in some manner if they are contender or not.

I don't expect a fist pump, we got our guy for the stretch run level move.