Denoyer/Armbruester/Watson

[Frobby]

These are three guys who aren’t thought to have high ceilings but have had some decent success through at least AA.  Who do you think has the best shot at being a big league contributor?

Noah Denoyer: an undrafted FA in 2019, got promoted during the season to AA, where he posted a 2.69 ERA, 0.79  WHIP, 12.0 K/9 in 50.1 IP as a long reliever/spot starter.  Actually pitched better there than he had at Aberdeen.   Pitched a bit in the AFL and got added to the 40-man roster.   Will be 25 this season.

Justin Armbruester: a 2021 12th rounder, Armbruester also got a promotion to Bowie, where he posted a 3.69 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 in 63 IP, mostly as a starter.   Will be 24 this season.

Ryan Watson: an undrafted free agent in 2020, Watson was mostly a starter at Bowie, where he had a 3.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 9.5 K/9.   He finished the year in Norfolk’s bullpen.  He’ll be 25 this year.   

Tony ranked Denoyer at no. 20, Armbruester no. 38, and Watson no. 52, so he sees a pretty clear pecking order.  Longenhagen at Fangraphs had Denoyer at 22 and Armbruester at 24, so he thought those two were close, but he didn’t have Watson in his top 38 (which is as far as he went).  BA had Armbruester 21, Denoyer 23 and Watson outside the top 30.    So, it seems all three have a similar read on Denoyer, but Longenhagen and BA like Armbruester more than Tony does (and about as much as Denoyer), while all three have Watson a pretty distant third in the pecking order among these three.

Thoughts?  Will we see any of these guys in Baltimore at some point in 2023?  Denoyer has a leg up since he’s on the 40-man, while Watson has thrown the most innings in AA and has actually reached AAA for a few innings.  



 

[btdart20]

Sure, any of them could be on the team this year.  

Denoyer is most interesting to me.  His splits were basically the same vs. RHB and LHB (a bit more OPS vs. LHB).  Much better numbers as an RP (but a pretty unlucky Babip against as an SP too).  I'm a sucker for low WHIPs and a 10+ K/9-BB/9!  He could get the Hall treatment from 2022 to see if he can stick as a starter but ultimately get the call as a bullpen arm.

[LookinUp]

Based on Tony’s rankings, I assume that Denoyer is the best prospect of the three. I think the larger point here is that some of these types of prospects are going to have to pan out for this pitching player development strategy to work.
 

I guess the alternative is to rely heavily on international development and players acquired in trades.

[CharmCityHokie]

It might be unorthodox thinking based on prospect rankings, but I feel like we'll see Watson first of the three (despite Denoyer being on the 40-man). The reason I think that is that Watson is almost certain to end up in the bullpen fulltime, while the organization will want the other two to develop as starters even if they don't ultimately end up that way. I can easily see Watson taking Cano or Gillaspie's spot on the 40-man as an up-and-down guy in the 'pen. 

If we're still giving spot starts to Spenser Watkins come August (and nothing against Watkins, I appreciate the effort and his story), I'll figure Denoyer doesn't have what it takes as he's on the roster and could be brought up with someone optioned down. 

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Sure, any of them could be on the team this year.  

Denoyer is most interesting to me.  His splits were basically the same vs. RHB and LHB (a bit more OPS vs. LHB).  Much better numbers as an RP (but a pretty unlucky Babip against as an SP too).  I'm a sucker for low WHIPs and a 10+ K/9-BB/9!  He could get the Hall treatment from 2022 to see if he can stick as a starter but ultimately get the call as a bullpen arm.

As @Frobby pointed out, my thoughts are pretty clear on the order. Saying that, I can see why guys like Armbruster more than me because at times, the fastball up and slider can play so he's got some solid reliever vibes for me. But he MUST improve that changeup to have something to defend himself against lefties.

As for Denoyer, this is what stood out to me "The quality of stuff shows in his 17.4% swinging strike rate that was only behind Nick Vespi and DL Hall among pitchers at AA or AAA. Overall he held batters to a .194/.251/.322/.573 slash line with an impressive 99-17 K-BB ratio in 71.2 IP."

As for Watson, the stuff is just kinda bleh overall and he doesn't have a consistent out pitch. Like I said in his quick bio though, he could throw harder and get a uptick of stuff in a relief role. 

I'm higher on Denoyer than some others, but without statcast data, his statistical success gives him a step above for me.

 

[Aristotelian]

I'm also most excited about Denoyer. He had a tremendous year at AA (6:1 K/BB was Grayson-esque!). Hopefully it wasn't just a hot streak. Unfortunately the only time I've seen him pitch is the Futures Game and he didn't look that great. Also didn't do great in Arizona. He is one guy I am excited to see how he looks in the spring. I am glad they decided to protect him on the 40 man, so the organization must think at least somewhat highly of him. Seems like he is on track for a role on the Orioles whereas the other guys will need to break out a bit to prove themselves. 

[Sports Guy]

 

[Aristotelian]

Denoyer tonight 5 IP, 0 ER, 6 K vs Nashville. Had been pitching out of the bullpen previously. 

[Sports Guy]