Early spring bullpen thoughts

[wildcard]

7 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Baker finished very strong last year.  He’s got a lot of rope.  As of today the bullpen is:

Bautista

Baker

Wells

Perez

Givens

Akin

Voth

The 8th guy could be Hall, Krehbiel, Politi, Gillaspie, or someone from another organization.

Yes, Baker finished strong last year but he was good for three months last season and bad for three months.   I think his odds are 50/50 of breaking with the team.  He has to start pitching better or he will be optioned.

Watkins and Gillaspie look good in the early going.

Edited March 12, 2023 by wildcard

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Yes, Baker finished strong last year but he was good for three months last season and bad for three months.   I think his odds are 50/50 of breaking with the team.  He has to start pitching better or he will be optioned.

Watkins and Gillaspie look good in the early going.

Gillaspie is facing AAA hitters.  Talk to me when he starts getting ML hitters out.  Next you’re going to tell me that Gunnar and his .100 average should start the year in AAA.

[wildcard]

58 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Gillaspie is facing AAA hitters.  Talk to me when he starts getting ML hitters out.  Next you’re going to tell me that Gunnar and his .100 average should start the year in AAA.

Everybody is facing AAA hitters.  But some are not doing so well with that.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Everybody is facing AAA hitters.  But some are not doing so well with that.

Baker proved himself against ML hitters last year.   Remember, when the bell rings the .476 hitter like Cordero hit .200 and the .100 hitters like Henderson hit .280.   Baker will be fine.

[wildcard]

8 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Baker proved himself against ML hitters last year.   Remember, when the bell rings the .476 hitter like Cordero hit .200 and the .100 hitters like Henderson hit .280.   Baker will be fine.

I hope you are right.  I like Baker.   Just have to see it.

[OriolesMagic83]

21 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Baker finished very strong last year.  He’s got a lot of rope.  As of today the bullpen is:

Bautista

Baker

Wells

Perez

Givens

Akin

Voth

The 8th guy could be Hall, Krehbiel, Politi, Gillaspie, or someone from another organization.

Are the 8th inning guys, Perez and Baker right now?  Who closes if Bautista is on the DL on OD?

[RZNJ]

24 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Are the 8th inning guys, Perez and Baker right now?  Who closes if Bautista is on the DL on OD?

Got me.  If Wells is in the bullpen are they going to use him like Akin or like a 1 inning guy.   I hope they use Wells like a setup guy and he’s got some experience as a closer.   We are a little questionable at that spot right now.  I’d love to see Hall and Wells both become power setup guys and potentially make the bullpen a strength.  Right now it looks weaker than the 2022 first half combo of Bautista/Lopez.

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, wildcard said:

I hope you are right.  I like Baker.   Just have to see it.

You may need to see it, but I doubt the Orioles do when it comes to guys like Baker who are coming of a good major league season. While the Orioles would prefer to  see great results, the key is the stuff at this point. Is the velocity and movement the same? Command will come with time and why there's a spring training in the first place.

We will be entering the "dead arm zone" of spring training in the next week or so. There is going to be bad outings or innings coming up for most. 

Elias has rightfully never put too much into spring training performance besides players with extreme springs one way or the other. 

I don't think there are a ton of jobs open in the bullpen IF Bautista and Hall show to be ready.

Bullpen Locks (5):
Givens
Perez
Akin
Voth
Baker

Locks if healthy (1):
Bautista

Most likely (1):
Wells (If GRod makes the rotation)

Bubble/battle guys:
Hall: if the Orioles decide to let him relieve this spring and he's ready healthwise
Politi: Elias took him in the Rule 5 and he doesn't like to give up an arm for nothing
Krehbiel: Having two options could hurt him and could give Politi the first shot
Vespi: If Hall is sent back to AAA to start, Vespi has the best chance to make it as the second (non long guy) lefty.

Assuming everyone is healthy and ready to go, the best bullpen in my mind is:

Bautista
Givens
Hall (L)
Perez (L)
Wells
Akin (L)
Baker
Voth

 

 

[wildcard]

45 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You may need to see it, but I doubt the Orioles do when it comes to guys like Baker who are coming of a good major league season. While the Orioles would prefer to  see great results, the key is the stuff at this point. Is the velocity and movement the same? Command will come with time and why there's a spring training in the first place.

We will be entering the "dead arm zone" of spring training in the next week or so. There is going to be bad outings or innings coming up for most. 

Elias has rightfully never put too much into spring training performance besides players with extreme springs one way or the other. 

I don't think there are a ton of jobs open in the bullpen IF Bautista and Hall show to be ready.

Bullpen Locks (5):
Givens
Perez
Akin
Voth
Baker

Locks if healthy (1):
Bautista

Most likely (1):
Wells (If GRod makes the rotation)

Bubble/battle guys:
Hall: if the Orioles decide to let him relieve this spring and he's ready healthwise
Politi: Elias took him in the Rule 5 and he doesn't like to give up an arm for nothing
Krehbiel: Having two options could hurt him and could give Politi the first shot
Vespi: If Hall is sent back to AAA to start, Vespi has the best chance to make it as the second (non long guy) lefty.

Assuming everyone is healthy and ready to go, the best bullpen in my mind is:

Bautista
Givens
Hall (L)
Perez (L)
Wells
Akin (L)
Baker
Voth

I see your points.  I don't think its as clear as that.

I see a battle between Baker and Gillaspie.  Both have options.   And I think  the effectiveness of their pitches could make the difference.

Elias has said that Hall still has some things to prove at AAA.   I think he begins the season in the Norfolk rotation.  I think they want him to develop as a starter.  I don't think Elias is ready to give up on his long term goal to get Hall to the majors faster.

You are not considering Watkins.   He has added pitches and he may have become more effective.   I think the decision has not been made yet.  He pitches today and will probably pitch every five days for next two weeks.  He could end up in the pen.

Edited March 13, 2023 by wildcard

[Tony-OH]

30 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I see your points.  I don't think its as clear as that.

I see a battle between Baker and Gillaspie.  Both have options.   And I think  the effectiveness of their pitches could make the difference.

Elias has said that Hall still has some things to prove at AAA.   I think he begins the season in the Norfolk rotation.  I think they want him to develop as a starter.  I don't think Elias is ready to give up on his long term goal to get Hall to the majors faster.

You are not considering Watkins.   He has added pitches and he may have become more effective.   I think the decision has not been made yet.  He pitches today and will probably pitch every five days for next two weeks.  He could end up in the pen.

I understand where you are coming from, but I don't think Elias is going to be swayed by a few spring training innings when Baker outperformed Gillaspie last year.  Remember Connor Greene and his lights out spring throwing up to 99 MPH a few years back? As soon as the season started he became Connor Greene once again.

Now, Hall very well could go to the minors to start the year, but I think that opens the door for Politi or maybe Vespi as the 3rd lefty to make the team. 

I think Watkins is going to the minors to be starting depth unless several injuries occurs and he makes the team. I don't think it makes a ton of sense to put him in the pen because he's not a high leverage guy and they already have Voth out there to provide length. 

[Sports Guy]

Hall needs to start.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I understand where you are coming from, but I don't think Elias is going to be swayed by a few spring training innings when Baker outperformed Gillaspie last year.  Remember Connor Greene and his lights out spring throwing up to 99 MPH a few years back? As soon as the season started he became Connor Greene once again.

Now, Hall very well could go to the minors to start the year, but I think that opens the door for Politi or maybe Vespi as the 3rd lefty to make the team. 

I think Watkins is going to the minors to be starting depth unless several injuries occurs and he makes the team. I don't think it makes a ton of sense to put him in the pen because he's not a high leverage guy and they already have Voth out there to provide length. 

I think the pen may has several relievers that  can go 3 innings.   Voth, Watkins and when Tate returns Wells.      This takes a lot of the innings stress off the starters and the late relievers.    Hyde did not have that option last season but he may have it this season.

Any of those three could make spot starts when needed or be ready to move into the rotation.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hall needs to start.

He doesn’t need to start.  Silly and simple statement.   There are different ways they can go with Hall.   I would argue that relieving at the ML level is both more valuable to the team and to Halls development than starting at AAA.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RZNJ said:

He doesn’t need to start.  Silly and simple statement.   There are different ways they can go with Hall.   I would argue that relieving at the ML level is both more valuable to the team and to Halls development than starting at AAA.

You could argue it but it’s a terrible argument imo.

He needs innings. He needs to pitch. He needs routine. This is a guy who has a total of 315 pro innings in 6 seasons.

Coming Here to throw a few innings here and there isn’t enough. If he ends up in the pen, that’s fine. It is what it is. Right now, he needs to start, work on all his pitches and throw innings. 

He can go to the pen and live off of a few pitches and get away with off command pitching out of the pen because his stuff will be that good.

Have him start and see how he develops. See if he can stay healthy.

The upside of this team goes way up if he can reach his ceiling.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You could argue it but it’s a terrible argument imo.

He needs innings. He needs to pitch. He needs routine. This is a guy who has a total of 315 pro innings in 6 seasons.

Coming Here to throw a few innings here and there isn’t enough. If he ends up in the pen, that’s fine. It is what it is. Right now, he needs to start, work on all his pitches and throw innings. 

He can go to the pen and live off of a few pitches and get away with off command pitching out of the pen because his stuff will be that good.

Have him start and see how he develops. See if he can stay healthy.

The upside of this team goes way up if he can reach his ceiling.

Hall can reach his ceiling if he relieves and has success.   See Chris Sales. See Corbin Burnes.    Going to AAA and dominating AAA hitters?   He’s done that at times.  It proves nothing.    Building up innings.  That’s BS.  Is he going to gain more confidence dominating AAA hitters or being effective for 1-2 innings against ML hitters?   It’s a no brainer.   And if he can’t be effective for 1-2 innings against ML hitters no amount of AAA starts is going to help.