Demise of the two-way CF

[btdart20]

 

MLB Locked On Prospects talked about this article today.  It ties to @Sports Guy thread about athleticism in the minor's forum.  But I posted it hear because of the focus of the article.  

Two-way center fielders once roamed MLB. Where have they gone? ‘We’re the dinosaurs’ - The Athletic

(I don't have a subscription, so I'm just adding themes from the podcast.)

Basically defined as a 101 OPS+ and a dWAR 0.1 (over 100 games).  The article opens with Nimmo and his 8-year contract at age 30.  This short list only includes - Trout, JuRod, Harris II, Nimmo, and Mullins.  (Acuna could be on the list too but injury/Harris bumped him.)

Some key points from the article/podcast:

Positional versatility - playing in more positions is a trend.

CF defense is so important that you're willing to trade offense for defense (similar thought for SS).

Wear and tear on the position (Buxton, Acuna, Springer, Robert... playing less demanding positions)

 

Some general thoughts/ponderings:

Mullins obviously has significant value.

Is it worth sitting Mullins more to limit the wear/tear?  That likely benefits McKenna more than other depth options.  Could we eventually see a Cowser/Hays/Stowers to still have hitters when Mullins sits?

Could Mullins be moved to LF to keep him healthy?  Especially if Hays bat is quiet like the bulk of last year.

 

(Cowser is mentioned when he goes through the prospects on the second half of the podcast.  Crosby leans toward Cowser being an above-average COF and average CF.  No mention of Fabian or other O's prospects...)

[clapdiddy]

I think if you move Mullins to LF, he loses a lot of value. 

[Il BuonO]

Mullins made improvements last year with his throwing, but the idea that his arm is less valuable in LF is not valid. He may be more valuable because at CY he's covering more ground and doesn't have to make throws from the RCF gap or any other throw that would magnify his weakness, and improvements aside, it's still a weakness. He also struggled mightily last year with LHP. 

Not only that, but the depth of OF players in the system and the Orioles' operational philosophy dictates that they look for someone as a trade partner with which Mullins is an improvement in the OF and can provide the Orioles with a return in an area of need. 

Mullins should be a platoon partner with his eventual replacement until that time comes, not to prevent potential injury, but because it makes the most sense.

[Moose Milligan]

If they're going to trade Mullins, the time is now.  Or it was this past offseason.  I'm not sure what "significant" trade value entails...but in my mind, when I see posters say something like that, I picture them thinking they're at a Capital Grille with a menu and picking any 3 top 10 prospects from someone's system.  I'm not sure how accurate that is but I'm not sure how much trade value Mullins actually has because we all really like Mullins.  

Flipping the scenario, what would be willing to give from our system if we were looking to trade for Cedric Mullins if we had a need in CF?  At first blush, my initial reaction to that question is "not much."  He's 28 and he's not getting any faster and a lot of his value is tied to his speed.

That all said, I agree with @clapdiddyif he's moved to LF he loses a lot of value.  It's my hope that he performs closer to his 2021 levels and we're able to trade him because Cowser is having a great season and others in the system are, too.

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

He's 28 and he's not getting any faster and a lot of his value is tied to his speed.

A lot of his value is tied to him being a great CF which takes a lot more than speed. 

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, LTO's said:

A lot of his value is tied to him being a great CF which takes a lot more than speed. 

 

That's somewhat fair, but I don't see many great defensive center fielders who have average speed or below.  Yes, you need to be able to get a good jump and take good routes to balls but that will only get a centerfielder so far. 

They need to be able to cover some ground.  They need to be able to get to a ball in the gaps to cut it off or to be able to make a throw to hold a runner at first.  

Cedric isn't about to get better at covering ground.  Any improvements he can make in CF in regards to getting better jumps and reads on balls and taking better routes to ball is going to be offset by the fact that his sprint speed is declining.  

Statcast shows us that his sprint speed from last year was ranked in the 80th percentile which is still strong.  His outfielder jump was in the 77th percentile.

But his sprint speed was down from an 86 the year before.  His outfielder jump is was 73 so he actually got better on his jumps.  

But his sprint speed has declined from 2020 when it was in the 92nd percentile.  Like it or not, he's slowing down.

The good news is that somehow his Outs Above Average has hovered in the 96th percentile all these years.  

But you can't tell me that his declining sprint speed is going to make playing a great CF easier for him.  

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

That's somewhat fair, but I don't see many great defensive center fielders who have average speed or below.  Yes, you need to be able to get a good jump and take good routes to balls but that will only get a centerfielder so far. 

They need to be able to cover some ground.  They need to be able to get to a ball in the gaps to cut it off or to be able to make a throw to hold a runner at first.  

Cedric isn't about to get better at covering ground.  Any improvements he can make in CF in regards to getting better jumps and reads on balls and taking better routes to ball is going to be offset by the fact that his sprint speed is declining.  

Statcast shows us that his sprint speed from last year was ranked in the 80th percentile which is still strong.  His outfielder jump was in the 77th percentile.

But his sprint speed was down from an 86 the year before.  His outfielder jump is was 73 so he actually got better on his jumps.  

But his sprint speed has declined from 2020 when it was in the 92nd percentile.  Like it or not, he's slowing down.

The good news is that somehow his Outs Above Average has hovered in the 96th percentile all these years.  

But you can't tell me that his declining sprint speed is going to make playing a great CF easier for him.  

Instinctively, you'd expect the best CF's to be guys with great speed and great instincts.  Apparently, that combination is rare.   Jackie Bradley Jr. was never considered fast.  Average to a tick above speed.    Jud Fabian is said to have "solid" speed whatever that means.   I guess it's above average but doesn't sound like he's especially fast and yet he's considered a premium defensive CF.    That first step is critical.     Give a guy with average speed a one or two-step head start on the speedy guy in the 40 yard dash and the average guy wins every time.

[wildcard]

I don't think of Cowser as having Mullins speed.   I equate Cowser's speed to Austin Hays which a tick lower than Mullins IMO.

[Il BuonO]

27 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If they're going to trade Mullins, the time is now.  Or it was this past offseason.  I'm not sure what "significant" trade value entails...but in my mind, when I see posters say something like that, I picture them thinking they're at a Capital Grille with a menu and picking any 3 top 10 prospects from someone's system.  I'm not sure how accurate that is but I'm not sure how much trade value Mullins actually has because we all really like Mullins.  

Flipping the scenario, what would be willing to give from our system if we were looking to trade for Cedric Mullins if we had a need in CF?  At first blush, my initial reaction to that question is "not much."  He's 28 and he's not getting any faster and a lot of his value is tied to his speed.

That all said, I agree with @clapdiddyif he's moved to LF he loses a lot of value.  It's my hope that he performs closer to his 2021 levels and we're able to trade him because Cowser is having a great season and others in the system are, too.

I haven't been here a lot in the offseason, but I did lurk occasionally. There was some talk about the needs of the Marlins and Mullins was discussed. I do believe the time was the offseason, but maybe the Marlins or whatever may have shown interest didn't make a good enough offer. I agree about "significant" value. In whose eyes? I certainly don't put Mullins in the same category as Trout, or, in fact anyone on the list included in the OP.

Despite your incorrect assertion  that he loses "a lot" (why or why not)of value in a move to LF, hope is not a strategy. If he can get back to 2021 levels, you definitely trade him at his highest value. Whether or not that's done is speculation, but we're about to see what Elias can or can't do when the stakes are raised.

[btdart20]

By "significant value" this poster meant Mullins is one of 5 players to qualify as a plus defender and plus offensive guy.  That's a positional win against all but two AL teams (and Trout might not qualify in 2023 if LAA are concerned with his back).

I agree that Mullins is more valuable in CF than other OF spots.  The only scenario I can see Mullins moved to LF is if Hays/Cowser are both playing poorly and McKenna is hitting RHP well.

I can see him sitting more for splits/health reasons.  McKenna's spot seems more secure because of that.

From an org build perspective, this supports the notion that Mullins' value-add is tough to replace if you're trying to be competitive in 2023-2025.  And since it was brought up, trading Mullins now would likely bring a higher return than later.  But I tend think his value to the org is greater than the return would bring.  I'd like to see more questions answered in the CF pipeline before trading Mullins personally.  (That said, I'm not opposed "for the right return.")

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

I certainly don't put Mullins in the same category as Trout, or, in fact anyone on the list included in the OP.

Agreed.  Even the second batch of players mentioned above.  That's part of why he loses value moving to LF because his bat isn't what the others bring.  Even Nimmo's plate discipline would hold value if/when he's moved to a COF.  None of this is a knock against Mullins by any means.  

47 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Flipping the scenario, what would be willing to give from our system if we were looking to trade for Cedric Mullins if we had a need in CF?  At first blush, my initial reaction to that question is "not much."  He's 28 and he's not getting any faster and a lot of his value is tied to his speed.

This is a good way of thinking about trades.  It's a case-by-case thing from each teams' perspective.  The O's don't have many "plus" CF alternatives.  A few "in a pinch" types or defense only types, but no other two-way threats.  There's a need (both here and elsewhere) but doubt we would give up much to bring him in either.  (And maybe that's part of where we are as an org too?)  But that's why I suspect he stays with the O's.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

 

This is a good way of thinking about trades.  It's a case-by-case thing from each teams' perspective.  The O's don't have many "plus" CF alternatives.  A few "in a pinch" types or defense only types, but no other two-way threats.  There's a need (both here and elsewhere) but doubt we would give up much to bring him in either.  (And maybe that's part of where we are as an org too?)  But that's why I suspect he stays with the O's.

Well thats part of the thought process there...even if we did need a CF, I don't think Mullins would be the guy we give up a lot of prospect capital to get.  I don't know if he's that guy for anyone else, really.

[Just Regular]

55 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Statcast shows us that his sprint speed from last year was ranked in the 80th percentile which is still strong.  His outfielder jump was in the 77th percentile.

But his sprint speed was down from an 86 the year before.  His outfielder jump is was 73 so he actually got better on his jumps.  

But his sprint speed has declined from 2020 when it was in the 92nd percentile.  Like it or not, he's slowing down.

Thanks for this.    I don't quite have the data chops to do it easily, but with all the hubbub about Mullins slowing down, the thing I wonder is he slowing down more or less than any big league CF during their Age 25-27 seasons.

Maybe 77th percentile at age 27 is par for the course if you start 92nd percentile at age 25.

I do know from as far back as the Gunnar alternate site videos Orioles Player Development includes speed development and maintenance, and feel sure the Org is taking care also with this other up-the-middle star.

I like having an All-Star CF on the roster.    No, I don't want to give him the Nimmo contract, whether or not Jud Fabian becomes anything.     The growth spurt I've seen in Cowser this spring makes me think he'll be an occasional CF in his youth.

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

But you can't tell me that his declining sprint speed is going to make playing a great CF easier for him.  

It's really not a big deal since there's basically no chance he's getting extended. He's one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball and that isn't very likely to change this year or next. Also, it's not like the Orioles have a surefire stud CF that can easily replace him imminently. There is no sense in trading him right now. I've mentioned this before but I don't understand the obsession with trying to trade guys at their max value when they are actively providing that value to your big league club. Especially coming out the glacial pace rebuild we just had. Just let him play out the contract.  If Fabian takes his job in 2024 and the Orioles lose a bit of value in a trade around that time, I'm willing to live with that if Mullins had a season like he did last year or in 2021 this season.

[Aristotelian]

Both Fangraphs and bbref have Mullins improving slightly from 2021 to '22 in overall defense. One thing that may help him last longer is being a smaller guy leading to less wear and tear on his legs. I'd say he still within his prime range but also entering "could decline at any moment" range. Of course, other GM's know that and any trade return will likely reflect his age.