Jud Fabian 2023

[Alasdaire]

31 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

10th Homer in 36 games. However, only 26 total hits in 36 games in Bowie. 

I will say that if you're a prospect and decide to strike out at 40% and hit below the Mendoza line, it's a good idea to mash home runs and be a plus center fielder. That's a profile teams will give an awfully long leash to and do whatever they can to work with.

[Chaka Garcia]

I wonder if he repeats Bowie next year to work on the strikeouts and hitting for average.

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, Chaka Garcia said:

I wonder if he repeats Bowie next year to work on the strikeouts and hitting for average.

Good guess.   

[Frobby]

On 8/13/2023 at 7:03 AM, Chaka Garcia said:

I wonder if he repeats Bowie next year to work on the strikeouts and hitting for average.

He absolutely will, barring some drastic turnaround the final part of this season. 

[waroriole]

On 8/13/2023 at 7:03 AM, Chaka Garcia said:

I wonder if he repeats Bowie next year to work on the strikeouts and hitting for average.

I wonder if he ever gets much beyond Bowie because of the strikeouts. 133 Ks in only 351 ABs this year between Aberdeen and Bowie. An astonishing 72 Ks in only 159 ABs in Bowie. I don’t see any way this guy can hit enough to be even a AAAA player. 

[TheWall]

32 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I wonder if he ever gets much beyond Bowie because of the strikeouts. 133 Ks in only 351 ABs this year between Aberdeen and Bowie. An astonishing 72 Ks in only 159 ABs in Bowie. I don’t see any way this guy can hit enough to be even a AAAA player. 

I would bet a substantial sum of money that he makes it to AAA. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, TheWall said:

I would bet a substantial sum of money that he makes it to AAA. 

When?  I don’t think he gets promoted until that K rate comes down significantly, which isn’t likely to happen in the next 4/5 weeks.

[TheWall]

44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

When?  I don’t think he gets promoted until that K rate comes down significantly, which isn’t likely to happen in the next 4/5 weeks.

The person above me said "I wonder if he ever gets much beyond Bowie". Fabian is at AA in his first season of pro ball and he plays good CF defense. He's obviously eventually getting promoted. Might never make the show, but he's certainly got a shot and his K rate this year doesn't lead me to believe he won't ever get out of AA. 

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, TheWall said:

The person above me said "I wonder if he ever gets much beyond Bowie". Fabian is at AA in his first season of pro ball and he plays good CF defense. He's obviously eventually getting promoted. Might never make the show, but he's certainly got a shot and his K rate this year doesn't lead me to believe he won't ever get out of AA. 

I’m just saying, the promotion won’t happen until the K rate comes down, by a lot.  I don’t know if or when that will happen. I’m not saying it won’t or can’t happen, but it could be awhile.  Zach Watson reached Bowie in 2021 but was still there in 2023 and eventually was released.   He had a .652 OPS at Bowie and 30.8% K rate.  

[TheWall]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m just saying, the promotion won’t happen until the K rate comes down, by a lot.  I don’t know if or when that will happen. I’m not saying it won’t or can’t happen, but it could be awhile.  Zach Watson reached Bowie in 2021 but was still there in 2023 and eventually was released.   He had a .652 OPS at Bowie and 30.8% K rate.  

I'm not arguing that the K rate doesn't need to come down in order for him to be promoted or successful. I just think its hilarious that people make claims like "this guy will never get above AA" in a season where he's already gone up a level. He obviously needs to adjust and work on things in the offseason - the hit tool was always the question mark. Maybe he doesn't. Maybe Jud Fabian is Zach Watson. Maybe Jackson Holliday is Jurickson Profar. I hope not for both. 

[Alasdaire]

6 hours ago, waroriole said:

I don’t see any way this guy can hit enough to be even a AAAA player. 

Based on what?

If your point is that a 40% strikeout rate isn't good, then okay? But you're focusing on

Quote

An astonishing 72 Ks

and not

Quote

in only 159 ABs

or any context.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, TheWall said:

I'm not arguing that the K rate doesn't need to come down in order for him to be promoted or successful. I just think its hilarious that people make claims like "this guy will never get above AA" in a season where he's already gone up a level. He obviously needs to adjust and work on things in the offseason - the hit tool was always the question mark. Maybe he doesn't. Maybe Jud Fabian is Zach Watson. Maybe Jackson Holliday is Jurickson Profar. I hope not for both. 

I’m with you here.  Mayo struck out in 34.5% of his PA at Bowie last year, then dropped it to 24.8% this year.  Hopefully we can get something similar from Fabian next year.  But it couid be difficult, based on Fabian’s track record.  He’s two years older than Mayo was in his first stint at Bowie. 

[Gurgi]

So if he makes it to the show it will likely be Oriole coaching that gets him there?   Well this will make an interesting test case to see just how good our development staff is.  

[Jammer7]

Is there anyone here who has seen him in Bowie? Can anyone tell me if the K’s are more so swinging or looking? The number of K’s are alarming in AA. He’s always had some swing and miss, but ouch. Is there a spray chart of his contact anywhere? He can get pull happy and sell out for the FB. 

[waroriole]

13 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

Based on what?

If your point is that a 40% strikeout rate isn't good, then okay? But you're focusing on

and not

or any context.

If you think this is just a SSS at Bowie go look at his career at Florida. He had a nice run in Aberdeen and there was some hope, but I just don’t see it. He doesn’t make enough contact.