Jud Fabian 2023

[TheWall]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m with you here.  Mayo struck out in 34.5% of his PA at Bowie last year, then dropped it to 24.8% this year.  Hopefully we can get something similar from Fabian next year.  But it couid be difficult, based on Fabian’s track record.  He’s two years older than Mayo was in his first stint at Bowie. 

100%. I don't think Fabian is anything close to Mayo as a prospect and I don't expect that same drop in K rate, but he doesn't need to do as much to see the field with his glove. 

Edited August 20, 2023 by TheWall

[Paul in Virginia]

 

 

[Brooks The Great]

Another dong tonight. I like his chances of improving on his K rate next season with organization's analytics and ability to develop hitters.

[Hazmat]

2 outfield assists for Fabian last night, both plays at 2nd base.

[RZNJ]

Let’s look at the bright side. 
 

1.  Overall.  24 home runs and 31 stolen bases.

2.  OPS improved each of his 3 months at Aberdeen 

3.  OPS improved each of his 3 months at Bowie

4. Strikeout rate was over 40% at one point at Bowie.  Down to 33% in September.   
 

I like what I see of his swing.  It looks like it stays in the zone a long time and he really tapped into his power last year.   It seems like he’s capable of making adjustments.   A 25% K rate and I think he’s a legit replacement for Cedric in a year.   A 30% or higher probably relegates him to a McKenna type, if that.

[LookinUp]

I hope he puts in a ton of time this offseason.

I desperately wanted to say he could have an Adam Jones-like profile, but that's really far fetched right now. He'd have to cut the k% by a ton.

I hadn't realized Jones k'd less than 20% over his career. I assumed it was in the 25% range.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I hope he puts in a ton of time this offseason.

I desperately wanted to say he could have an Adam Jones-like profile, but that's really far fetched right now. He'd have to cut the k% by a ton.

I hadn't realized Jones k'd less than 20% over his career. I assumed it was in the 25% range.

You might be subconsciously updating his K rate to reflect the current environment.

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Can_of_corn
Sorry

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You might be unconsciously updating his K rate to reflect the current environment.

 

I'm conscious.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I hope he puts in a ton of time this offseason.

I desperately wanted to say he could have an Adam Jones-like profile, but that's really far fetched right now. He'd have to cut the k% by a ton.

I hadn't realized Jones k'd less than 20% over his career. I assumed it was in the 25% range.

Jones had a great hit tool.  He could hit many pitches he had no business swinging at.   

Fabian seems a bit like Mark Reynolds, who actually had very good plate discipline but swung and missed at pitches in the zone a lot.  Mark Reynolds with above average baserunning and solid CF defense would probably be a pretty good player.  But Fabian isn’t even at Reynolds’ MiL contact rate at this point.   More work to do.
 

[LookinUp]

On 10/12/2023 at 11:19 AM, Otter said:

Agreed.  But I think they waited one year too long to trade Norby and Stowers.  Their prospect status and trade value has certainly diminished in the past year.

I get this line of thinking, but I don't buy the idea that they've stopped developing. 

Somewhere in this thread, someone mentioned Justin Turner as a comp for Norby. I have zero clue whether that's realistic at all, but his calling card is the hit tool. I can definitely see him forcing an opportunity if it keeps developing. We just saw a team that didn't have the lineup depth in the post season. An advanced hit tool is valuable.

And Stowers still has big power. I've not given up on him, though it feels like he had about 14 months of going sideways. Still, he was on fire in July and September, and still had an .867 OPS in August. Problem is that k rate is still probably too high.

 

[Otter]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I get this line of thinking, but I don't buy the idea that they've stopped developing. 

Somewhere in this thread, someone mentioned Justin Turner as a comp for Norby. I have zero clue whether that's realistic at all, but his calling card is the hit tool. I can definitely see him forcing an opportunity if it keeps developing. We just saw a team that didn't have the lineup depth in the post season. An advanced hit tool is valuable.

And Stowers still has big power. I've not given up on him, though it feels like he had about 14 months of going sideways. Still, he was on fire in July and September, and still had an .867 OPS in August. Problem is that k rate is still probably too high.

 

I think you misunderstood; I wasn't saying I thought they weren't still developing or had somehow regressed.  I like both of them a lot and still see potential in both their bats.  I was trying to say that if those two weren't going to be given a legit chance in the majors and were blocked by both veterans and other prospects more highly valued by the organization, it would have made more sense to trade them last offseason.  After another year in AAA and a year older, their prospect status and trade value have diminished IMO.  When you stockpile the position player stash that we have, you need to give them a shot in the majors or trade them for players in positions of need.  I prefer to reserve AAA depth for guys like Vavra, and use top 100 prospects like Norby to either play or trade.

[RZNJ]

23 minutes ago, Otter said:

I think you misunderstood; I wasn't saying I thought they weren't still developing or had somehow regressed.  I like both of them a lot and still see potential in both their bats.  I was trying to say that if those two weren't going to be given a legit chance in the majors and were blocked by both veterans and other prospects more highly valued by the organization, it would have made more sense to trade them last offseason.  After another year in AAA and a year older, their prospect status and trade value have diminished IMO.  When you stockpile the position player stash that we have, you need to give them a shot in the majors or trade them for players in positions of need.  I prefer to reserve AAA depth for guys like Vavra, and use top 100 prospects like Norby to either play or trade.

I can buy that Stowers stock has diminished some but he was not highly regarded before last year.   I don’t think Norby’s stock has dropped.  Again, no one ever had him as a top 50 guy.   

[LookinUp]

26 minutes ago, Otter said:

I think you misunderstood; I wasn't saying I thought they weren't still developing or had somehow regressed.  I like both of them a lot and still see potential in both their bats.  I was trying to say that if those two weren't going to be given a legit chance in the majors and were blocked by both veterans and other prospects more highly valued by the organization, it would have made more sense to trade them last offseason.  After another year in AAA and a year older, their prospect status and trade value have diminished IMO.  When you stockpile the position player stash that we have, you need to give them a shot in the majors or trade them for players in positions of need.  I prefer to reserve AAA depth for guys like Vavra, and use top 100 prospects like Norby to either play or trade.

Yeah, I basically agree with your perspective. I just think that if they are still developing, there's reason to think that their prior trade value (whatever that was, but not HIGH) may be eclipsed by a still developing profile that still has 6 years of player control.

I just don't think Elias missed out on any great opportunity to trade those guys in the past.

[LookinUp]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Jones had a great hit tool.  He could hit many pitches he had no business swinging at.   

Fabian seems a bit like Mark Reynolds, who actually had very good plate discipline but swung and missed at pitches in the zone a lot.  Mark Reynolds with above average baserunning and solid CF defense would probably be a pretty good player.  But Fabian isn’t even at Reynolds’ MiL contact rate at this point.   More work to do.
 

I really like the Mark Reynolds in-zone contact rate comp...and it doesn't stop there. He walks, he hits for power. Obviously a different defensive profile, and there are few people ever with the power of Reynolds, but it's an interesting comp if we're watching Fabian and trying to see an improvement.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Something I haven’t seen mentioned so far - Fabian’s splits: 

vs. RHP: .215/.339/.405, 391 PA, 60 BB, 128 K

vs. LHP: .248/.381/.541, 134 PA, 21 BB, 41 K

Interesting that the K/BB was about the same against both, but he definitely was hitting with a lot more authority against LHP. That lowers the chances of him becoming a starter, but increases the odds of him being a valuable bench player. 

I could see Fabian becoming “Ryan McKenna plus” - a frequent pinch runner/defensive replacement and occasional CF starter against LHP, with more power and BB (and hopefully K’s under control). With Mullins being lefty, and after him the likely CF all lefty (hopefully Bradfield Jr, but also Cowser and Beavers), there’s definitely a clear path for Fabian to that role.