Ohtani Rental?

[Bemorewins]

24 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Wait what?

So, the 23 Orioles need to send 5 very good controllable players to the Angels so we can increase our chance at winning in the playoffs in 23.  THEN Ohtani is a FA and he isn't signing here.  BUT we don't need to be concerned with that because John Means will be fully back.

But this year we must do something or we can't compete in the playoffs against the big boys.

Question:

IF all of that above is true?  Why wouldn't you roll the dice now, keep all of those guys.  Who is to say Means won't hit the ground running now?

Where in my post is any of this communicated?

Yes Ohtani makes us much better for the stretch that is obvious. Yes we can afford to trade from our excess, not all of our prospects will be able to find a place on our Big League team, that is obvious.

If you read my post, I said we have FIVE to SEVEN starters for next year (INCLUDING MEANS). We could still sign one of the many FA's starters who will be available if we want to, if Means is not ready to contribute.

Lastly, how did you read from my post that the Orioles "can't compete in the playoffs against the big boys". As a matter of fact, when did I ever say this? Like one time? What I have stated on multiple occasions, is that there is a talent gap between our team currently with the roster holes and some of the best teams in MLB. Which makes us an underdog as is.

[sportsfan8703]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Where in my post is any of this communicated?

Yes Ohtani makes us much better for the stretch that is obvious. Yes we can afford to trade from our excess, not all of our prospects will be able to find a place on our Big League team, that is obvious.

If you read my post, I said we have FIVE to SEVEN starters for next year (INCLUDING MEANS). We could still sign one of the many FA's starters who will be available if we want to, if Means is not ready to contribute.

Lastly, how did you read from my post that the Orioles "can't compete in the playoffs against the big boys". As a matter of fact, when did I ever say this? Like one time? What I have stated on multiple occasions, is that there is a talent gap between our team currently with the roster holes and some of the best teams in MLB. Which makes us an underdog as is.

I’ve posted a couple of times on here that even back in 2014 we were bigger perceived underdogs than what we actually were in the Detroit series. We were like +120 - +150 range. We were that during our most recent TB series. 

[interloper]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

1.  The Angels probably don’t even trade Ohtani

2. Mike Elias would never outbid other teams in terms of prospects

It’s that simple.

Can this be posted every hour on the hour? It perfectly sums up why this isn't going to happen. It starts with the Angels being in WC contention, and it ends with Elias balking at a bidding war. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’ve posted a couple of times on here that even back in 2014 we were bigger perceived underdogs than what we actually were in the Detroit series. We were like +120 - +150 range. We were that during our most recent TB series. 

Here's the thing for me: When you take an extreme approach to rebuilding the last for a half of a decade and when you amass a war chest of organizational talent as great as we have; you should in no way be satisfied with going into the postseason outgunned/outmanned (being the underdog).

We did not need to go through this type of extreme tanking if the goal was simply to be good and make the playoffs. By doing what we did I assumed (maybe I'm wrong) that the goal was something greater. Like become the Astros 2.0 (given that they were able to translate tanking into greatness).

I don't want the bar for expectations for the Baltimore Orioles to continue to remain so low, that they can trip over them blind folded (being .500, having a winning record, qualifying for the postseason one day, remaining the farm team for the more well run/well built teams with legit championship aspirations).

My hope is that Elias has lead our org through all of this so that the bar can be raised as the org strives toward excellence. IMO we are beyond the phase of just trying to be a competent/professional/modern baseball organization (Something that we weren't for a long time pre-Elias). But now, we've already cleared that hurdle. It's time to grow from there. And growth for me doesn't include, well let's remain underdogs or be content with being "the little engine that could" franchise, where we are comfortable accepting long shot odds. 

That was fine for 2014 when we accidentally stumbled into 2012, convinced Buck to take the job when no one else would (because he was just trying to get back into the game), didn't have a GM originally and took an outcast in Duquette who had no long range vision for the franchise, had no international system, lack a real system for development, and didn't have many good prospects at any one time because of it.

IMO - those days should be over.

[bpilktree67]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Bellinger, the Orioles have no interest in trading for. Elias has already stated on a few occasions that they are not interested in adding a bat.

We have an overabundance of prospect capital (more than we can ever use). If those teams do not decide to trade, we are good. We can get whoever on the market we want and be fine. There will be no panic/anxiety here, we are very well positioned to succeed both now and into the project future.

He said they won't add a bat unless something changes.  Like say Mullins getting hurt long term, Hicks hurt and out for a period of time, Gunnar and his back flaring up.  It looks like some things have changed since he said that so I expect they do look for a rental bat that will not cost much.  Maybe not Bellinger but i could see a guy like Grichuk. 

[bpilktree67]

The Angels are 3 games out of the wild card.  They play a 3 game series vs the team they are chasing in the Blue Jays starting Friday we should know a lot about where they stand after that series.  If they win 2 or 3 they will hold on to him.  They loose 2 of 3 or swept it could increase their odds but still you have to calculate what effects trading hem in a race would have on fan base.  

[Billy F-Face3]

Do we have anyone here who lurks in Angels fan circles to be able to report what they're saying about the Shohei situation? What's their general mood? 

I saw that the Japanese press and the Anaheim press that travels with the Angels took one past photo together at Angels Stadium with the idea it could be their last time all together at Angels Stadium.

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

He said they won't add a bat unless something changes.  Like say Mullins getting hurt long term, Hicks hurt and out for a period of time, Gunnar and his back flaring up.  It looks like some things have changed since he said that so I expect they do look for a rental bat that will not cost much.  Maybe not Bellinger but i could see a guy like Grichuk. 

If Gunnar is out for an extended period of time, IMO we are seriously screwed. 

You may be right, Elias may decide to add an under the radar type of like Grichuk though. Pitching in some form would seem to b the bigger prioirty.

IMO unless we are adding an Ohtani (major impact bat) ww would be better served to just call up Kjerstad. While there are no guarantees that he would come up to the bigs and succeed immediately (or at all for that matter), in my estimation, without Gunnar our chances for success in the Fall would be seriously compromised and at that point (especially if Mullins were to remain out as well) I would rather just allow Kjerstad the reps than waste any prospect capital on odds of success that would be very low.

[foxfield]

58 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Here's the thing for me: When you take an extreme approach to rebuilding the last for a half of a decade and when you amass a war chest of organizational talent as great as we have; you should in no way be satisfied with going into the postseason outgunned/outmanned (being the underdog).

We did not need to go through this type of extreme tanking if the goal was simply to be good and make the playoffs. By doing what we did I assumed (maybe I'm wrong) that the goal was something greater. Like become the Astros 2.0 (given that they were able to translate tanking into greatness).

I don't want the bar for expectations for the Baltimore Orioles to continue to remain so low, that they can trip over them blind folded (being .500, having a winning record, qualifying for the postseason one day, remaining the farm team for the more well run/well built teams with legit championship aspirations).

My hope is that Elias has lead our org through all of this so that the bar can be raised as the org strives toward excellence. IMO we are beyond the phase of just trying to be a competent/professional/modern baseball organization (Something that we weren't for a long time pre-Elias). But now, we've already cleared that hurdle. It's time to grow from there. And growth for me doesn't include, well let's remain underdogs or be content with being "the little engine that could" franchise, where we are comfortable accepting long shot odds. 

That was fine for 2014 when we accidentally stumbled into 2012, convinced Buck to take the job when no one else would (because he was just trying to get back into the game), didn't have a GM originally and took an outcast in Duquette who had no long range vision for the franchise, had no international system, lack a real system for development, and didn't have many good prospects at any one time because of it.

IMO - those days should be over.

Not picking on you today, I don't really disagree with the gist of your comments.  But the three things highlighted in red above are too far off the mark to go unchallenged.

1). The Orioles "extreme" makeover was not a half a decade in the making.

2018 - Orioles lost 115 games with the 9th highest payroll in baseball.  It was the end of the Buck/Duquette era and it crashed and burned horribly. Got the 2019 #1 Pick (Adley)

2019 - Year 1 of Hyde/Elias. Very little non Davis money still fell to 28th in payroll @ 61M.  54-108 record.  Year 1 of the Tank. Got 2020 #2 Pick (Heston)

2020 - Year 2 of Hyde/Elias.  Salary down to 30th with payroll just under 24M.  Covid shortened year.  Played pretty well.  Finished 25-35.  Year 2 of the Tank.  Got the 2021 #5 Pick (Cowser)

2021 - Year 3 of Hyde/Elias.  Salary 29th in the league @ 45M.  Finished 52-110. Year 3 of the Tank.  Got the 2022 #1 Pick (Holliday).

2022 - Year 4 of Hyde/Elias. Salary 30th in the league @ 30M. Finished 83-79.  Rebuild over!

Not that it hasn't been a painful half decade.  But by any measurement, the rebuild/tanking was 3 years and if you must count 2018 under a different GM/Manager and the #9 payroll in baseball, you would be stretching....but still only get to 4 years.

2). Outgunned/Outmanned?  By who?  The Orioles are the top team in the AL.  Does it mean they will stay there?  No.  But a healthy Oriole team playing as they are today, will not be underdogs against everyone in the playoffs.  But as a team with virtually no playoff experience, they are going to be burdened with low expectations.  I don't really think trades today change that.  But I would expect a healthy Oriole team in 2024 to have more believers.

3).  Being a farm team for the better run better built serious championship contenders?  The Orioles are clearly pretty well run.  They have to prove they can navigate being a top level contender but that is where they are in year 5 of the Elias tenure.  I doubt seriously the Orioles are a farm team for any contender going forward.  Although I will admit that ownership may never let us sign to keep anyone forever.  Different issue.

Anyway, otherwise, I concur with your points that the Orioles should have a higher bar and that the organization collectively, is managed as well in it's pursuits of excellence as it has been in it's pursuit of talent.

 

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Not picking on you today, I don't really disagree with the gist of your comments.  But the three things highlighted in red above are too far off the mark to go unchallenged.

1). The Orioles "extreme" makeover was not a half a decade in the making.

2018 - Orioles lost 115 games with the 9th highest payroll in baseball.  It was the end of the Buck/Duquette era and it crashed and burned horribly. Got the 2019 #1 Pick (Adley)

2019 - Year 1 of Hyde/Elias. Very little non Davis money still fell to 28th in payroll @ 61M.  54-108 record.  Year 1 of the Tank. Got 2020 #2 Pick (Heston)

2020 - Year 2 of Hyde/Elias.  Salary down to 30th with payroll just under 24M.  Covid shortened year.  Played pretty well.  Finished 25-35.  Year 2 of the Tank.  Got the 2021 #5 Pick (Cowser)

2021 - Year 3 of Hyde/Elias.  Salary 29th in the league @ 45M.  Finished 52-110. Year 3 of the Tank.  Got the 2022 #1 Pick (Holliday).

2022 - Year 4 of Hyde/Elias. Salary 30th in the league @ 30M. Finished 83-79.  Rebuild over!

Not that it hasn't been a painful half decade.  But by any measurement, the rebuild/tanking was 3 years and if you must count 2018 under a different GM/Manager and the #9 payroll in baseball, you would be stretching....but still only get to 4 years.

2). Outgunned/Outmanned?  By who?  The Orioles are the top team in the AL.  Does it mean they will stay there?  No.  But a healthy Oriole team playing as they are today, will not be underdogs against everyone in the playoffs.  But as a team with virtually no playoff experience, they are going to be burdened with low expectations.  I don't really think trades today change that.  But I would expect a healthy Oriole team in 2024 to have more believers.

3).  Being a farm team for the better run better built serious championship contenders?  The Orioles are clearly pretty well run.  They have to prove they can navigate being a top level contender but that is where they are in year 5 of the Elias tenure.  I doubt seriously the Orioles are a farm team for any contender going forward.  Although I will admit that ownership may never let us sign to keep anyone forever.  Different issue.

Anyway, otherwise, I concur with your points that the Orioles should have a higher bar and that the organization collectively, is managed as well in it's pursuits of excellence as it has been in it's pursuit of talent.

 

I guess we must do this? lol

1) You are correct! 2018 was really before Elias. So it is unfair to put those results on him. However, 2022 was most certainly part of the rebuild. We sold our closer and one of our most consistent hitters at the deadline because the GM felt that we weren't good enough to legitimately challenge for the playoffs. (All things I agreed with at the time by the way). But you are right, 4 years only go on Elias' ledger. That is still a long time. Just saying. And if you don't think that the other teams/game of baseball thought it was extreme, they changed the draft rules to prevent protracted tanking for a reason. 

2) If you do not see a major RED FLAG in our teams current construction regarding making a reliable postseason prediction for success, I don't know what to tell you. Can you name 1 team with a pitching profile similar to ours who won the World Series in the last 10 years? Please don't say the KC Royals of 2015 because there is absolutely no comparison between their bullpen and what we have. Though Holland was not very good in the regular season that yearand eventually replaced as closer. They had 3 other elite guys.

Are you confident placing the hopes of our postseason success upon the abilities of Baker/Baumman/Perez/Coulmbe/Cano to preform well consistently in high leverage, pressure package, late innings in the postseason? How likely do you think that it is that Wells is going to magically stop giving up the long ball when we get into the postseason? When he is even more fatigued than he is now, where the margin for victory will be razor thin against other teams #1 and #2 pitchers and against some of the best offenses in the league. 2 dingers and it may be curtains. Very confident that Kremer will consistently navigate through the best lineups for 3 rounds come the Fall?

3) Being a farm team - meaning that you develop and produce good/great players that you refuse to pay/resign/extend, thus the teams that will reap the rewards (kind of like Machado). And before you or someone argues that you shouldn't pay anyone ever, just about all of the good teams (even the frugal ones do extensions - see J. Ramirez, Wander Rodriguez, Julio Rodriguez, C.Carroll, etc.) because they realize that you can't easily replace elite/greatness. 

You say that you, "doubt seriously the Orioles are a farm team for any contender going forward". I have to ask, what informs the confidence to make such a declarative statement? What is the likelihood would you say that we will resign/extend a Gunnar or a Holliday (if he proves to be the real deal) when it's time? I HOPE that we will but with our current nightmarish ownership situation, I cannot honestly say that the odds are very great.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

I guess we must do this? lol

1) You are correct! 2018 was really before Elias. So it is unfair to put those results on him. However, 2022 was most certainly part of the rebuild. We sold our closer and one of our most consistent hitters at the deadline because the GM felt that we weren't good enough to legitimately challenge for the playoffs. (All things I agreed with at the time by the way). But you are right, 4 years only go on Elias' ledger. That is still a long time. Just saying. And if you don't think that the other teams/game of baseball thought it was extreme, they changed the draft rules to prevent protracted tanking for a reason. 

2) If you do not see a major RED FLAG in our teams current construction regarding making a reliable postseason prediction for success, I don't know what to tell you. Can you name 1 team with a pitching profile similar to ours who won the World Series in the last 10 years? Please don't say the KC Royals of 2015 because there is absolutely no comparison between their bullpen and what we have. Though Holland was not very good in the regular season that yearand eventually replaced as closer. They had 3 other elite guys.

Are you confident placing the hopes of our postseason success upon the abilities of Baker/Baumman/Perez/Coulmbe/Cano to preform well consistently in high leverage, pressure package, late innings in the postseason? How likely do you think that it is that Wells is going to magically stop giving up the long ball when we get into the postseason? When he is even more fatigued than he is now, where the margin for victory will be razor thin against other teams #1 and #2 pitchers and against some of the best offenses in the league. 2 dingers and it may be curtains. Very confident that Kremer will consistently navigate through the best lineups for 3 rounds come the Fall?

3) Being a farm team - meaning that you develop and produce good/great players that you refuse to pay/resign/extend, thus the teams that will reap the rewards (kind of like Machado). And before you or someone argues that you shouldn't pay anyone ever, just about all of the good teams (even the frugal ones do extensions - see J. Ramirez, Wander Rodriguez, Julio Rodriguez, C.Carroll, etc.) because they realize that you can't easily replace elite/greatness. 

You say that you, "doubt seriously the Orioles are a farm team for any contender going forward". I have to ask, what informs the confidence to make such a declarative statement? What is the likelihood would you say that we will resign/extend a Gunnar or a Holliday (if he proves to be the real deal) when it's time? I HOPE that we will but with our current nightmarish ownership situation, I cannot honestly say that the odds are very great.

Oh and please forgive me because I forgot to put the red pen marks in my reply...lol

[foxfield]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I guess we must do this? lol

1) You are correct! 2018 was really before Elias. So it is unfair to put those results on him. However, 2022 was most certainly part of the rebuild. We sold our closer and one of our most consistent hitters at the deadline because the GM felt that we weren't good enough to legitimately challenge for the playoffs. (All things I agreed with at the time by the way). But you are right, 4 years only go on Elias' ledger. That is still a long time. Just saying. And if you don't think that the other teams/game of baseball thought it was extreme, they changed the draft rules to prevent protracted tanking for a reason. 

2) If you do not see a major RED FLAG in our teams current construction regarding making a reliable postseason prediction for success, I don't know what to tell you. Can you name 1 team with a pitching profile similar to ours who won the World Series in the last 10 years? Please don't say the KC Royals of 2015 because there is absolutely no comparison between their bullpen and what we have. Though Holland was not very good in the regular season that yearand eventually replaced as closer. They had 3 other elite guys.

Are you confident placing the hopes of our postseason success upon the abilities of Baker/Baumman/Perez/Coulmbe/Cano to preform well consistently in high leverage, pressure package, late innings in the postseason? How likely do you think that it is that Wells is going to magically stop giving up the long ball when we get into the postseason? When he is even more fatigued than he is now, where the margin for victory will be razor thin against other teams #1 and #2 pitchers and against some of the best offenses in the league. 2 dingers and it may be curtains. Very confident that Kremer will consistently navigate through the best lineups for 3 rounds come the Fall?

3) Being a farm team - meaning that you develop and produce good/great players that you refuse to pay/resign/extend, thus the teams that will reap the rewards (kind of like Machado). And before you or someone argues that you shouldn't pay anyone ever, just about all of the good teams (even the frugal ones do extensions - see J. Ramirez, Wander Rodriguez, Julio Rodriguez, C.Carroll, etc.) because they realize that you can't easily replace elite/greatness. 

You say that you, "doubt seriously the Orioles are a farm team for any contender going forward". I have to ask, what informs the confidence to make such a declarative statement? What is the likelihood would you say that we will resign/extend a Gunnar or a Holliday (if he proves to be the real deal) when it's time? I HOPE that we will but with our current nightmarish ownership situation, I cannot honestly say that the odds are very great.

I appreciate the response and it is informative.  

1). I see lots of folks include 2018 as part of the Tanking.  2018 was a colossal failure and brought about the full rebuild.  It also brought us Adley.  Technically it is part of the rebuild in that sense, but it certainly wasn't tanking.  That may be a technicality, but I think it is an important distinction.

2022 like 2023 the performance has been better than people expected and likely better than even Elias expected.  I think general managing a winning club is totally different.  I agree completely that the Orioles were sellers at the deadline last year.  I think it was an intelligent move based on realistic expectations of the club at that time to make moves that were beneficial to the club even if they did not appreciably lift the 22 playoff chances.  Many here want the Angels to sell because they are not likely to have a real chance.  I think 22 was a correct assessment of the Orioles chances.  In 23, I hope we see more support for the current club, but I really do not expect major moves.  I hope to be surprised.

2).  I don't think we see the current roster the same way.  I think the Orioles will be underdogs in several playoff matchups.  I do not see the huge red flags you seem to.  The Orioles will be underdogs even if they remain on top of the AL East and have the AL's best record.  In part because they have so many young and untested players who have no playoff experience.  Hopefully that changes in 24.  However, while I am hopeful of some additions this week, I believe if the current group can be healthy, they can compete with anyone.  Favored?  No, but especially if they can grab home field, I like their chances...even as underdogs.  That does not mean I want them to stand pat.  I don't.

3).  I can't with any assurance say that ownership will allow Elias to invest in the current players.  I wish I could, but I feel pretty certain we will not.  Would love to be wrong and would love a sale soon.  But, I do feel that we have a GM that will at least manage that process in a way that allows the Orioles to remain competitive.  Hopefully that isn't as morbid as being a farm system for real contenders.

I doubt Adley is ever extended and I hope that we try on Gunnar and Holliday. They have to want to stay and we have to be willing to pay.  I see no current path to extending everyone under current ownership.

Edited July 26, 2023 by foxfield

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, interloper said:

Can this be posted every hour on the hour? It perfectly sums up why this isn't going to happen. It starts with the Angels being in WC contention, and it ends with Elias balking at a bidding war. 

I can’t believe there are 47 pages on a guy where our changes of getting him are in the negative percentages.

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Here's the thing for me: When you take an extreme approach to rebuilding the last for a half of a decade and when you amass a war chest of organizational talent as great as we have; you should in no way be satisfied with going into the postseason outgunned/outmanned (being the underdog).

We did not need to go through this type of extreme tanking if the goal was simply to be good and make the playoffs. By doing what we did I assumed (maybe I'm wrong) that the goal was something greater. Like become the Astros 2.0 (given that they were able to translate tanking into greatness).

I don't want the bar for expectations for the Baltimore Orioles to continue to remain so low, that they can trip over them blind folded (being .500, having a winning record, qualifying for the postseason one day, remaining the farm team for the more well run/well built teams with legit championship aspirations).

My hope is that Elias has lead our org through all of this so that the bar can be raised as the org strives toward excellence. IMO we are beyond the phase of just trying to be a competent/professional/modern baseball organization (Something that we weren't for a long time pre-Elias). But now, we've already cleared that hurdle. It's time to grow from there. And growth for me doesn't include, well let's remain underdogs or be content with being "the little engine that could" franchise, where we are comfortable accepting long shot odds. 

That was fine for 2014 when we accidentally stumbled into 2012, convinced Buck to take the job when no one else would (because he was just trying to get back into the game), didn't have a GM originally and took an outcast in Duquette who had no long range vision for the franchise, had no international system, lack a real system for development, and didn't have many good prospects at any one time because of it.

IMO - those days should be over.

So Elias basically said he’s building an organization for the Longterm. Angelos has chimed in that they want to emulate the Rays but with a little more payroll capability. Since Elias has been here they have been mostly upfront about the direction of the team. The lonely hiccup was when Elias indicated they were ready to spend and then backed up when corrected by ownership.

Selling off 4-5 players from “the Warchest” for a 2 month rental isn’t a Rays type move.Othani is a poor investment if you don’t win the World Series. Current around 15 %. May the rental puts you in the really low 20ish. It’s not worth it to deal anyone that you could get long term value out of whether is via trade or service with the team.

BTW, I don’t discredit Mr Othani’s skills or capabilities. But, the Angels have had him and Trout but no World Series. So I think it’s debatable that his edition could bring it home. The resources lost for 2 months of a player will take a substantial time to replace. Are we stacked ? Sure….but, we need better long term pitching and the minor leagues are very short on pitching prospects that look to be can’t miss. People here are nervous about dealing Povich and his near 5 ERA over the last 2 seasons. 
 

Hall was viewed as the savior last season by many here. I kept saying….too many walks, too high ERA in the minors, struggling to go 5 innings due to pitch count. Although it’s sample size he’s a 6 era pitcher in the bigs. He’s likely destined for the pen and might be a good leverage reliever if he can cut down on the walks. 
 

So trade the prospects you’d throw away on the Othani rentals on some potential difference makers for the rotation. That’s what I’m using my war chest on! 
 

Elias has told you his path…..He’s open to dealing from the infield depth to get some pitching. But, I don’t think that means 5 players for Othani or even one or two of our top 100 or near top 100  guys on a 2 months rental. 
 

They are too valuable to do that based on the plan

 

[FlipTheBird]

8 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’ve posted a couple of times on here that even back in 2014 we were bigger perceived underdogs than what we actually were in the Detroit series. We were like +120 - +150 range. We were that during our most recent TB series. 

The oddsmakers and the press were reallllyy in on the trifecta of Scherzer-Verlander-Price being a major difference maker for Detroit, despite Verlander coming off one of the worst seasons of his entire career. I distinctly remember the TBS broadcast crew saying at the start of Game 1 that they still felt the Tigers were the favorites in the series, even down 1-0, because of their starting pitching.

Womp.