Comings and Goings over the next year

[wildcard]

 Now that we are 25% through the season I think we can project what is going to happen over the next year with  player acquisitions and who may leave the 40 man roster.

I don't see the need for a major Free Agent acquisition or trade.   And like last off season Elias is not likely to make one.   The O's have the 2nd best team in the AL and a half a dozen prospects pushing for spots on the roster.  Why spend the money or take on the risk of trading?

Pitchers

Going  

1) Gibson  - On a one year contract that will probably not be extended.

2) Givens - See Gibson

3) Watkins - Will be out of options next season and without the ability to be on the shuttle I think he loses his 40 man roster spot.

4) Akin-  If he stays in the minors for 20 days he will be out of options next season.  May not be one of the 8 best relievers so he may be traded for whatever prospect they can get.  He has some value as a lefty.

5) Irvin -  This is a maybe.  He will be out of options next season.  Irvin has to prove he is one of 13 best pitchers on  the  40 man roster.  If he does that he can stay in long relief or maybe as a starter.  But if he doesn't  he is probably traded for a prospect.

6) Coulombe - This is also a maybe.   Out of options.   He will be a 34 year old finesse pitcher.   Could stay or go depending of the mix of players on the roster.

 

Add

1) Darwinzon Hernandez -  A lefty reliever that throws 94.8 mph and is doing well a AAA.  This is what the O's do. Pick up a guy with a good arm and  refine his mechanics and pitches.  

2) Ryan Watson -  A maybe as the moment.  Minor league pitcher at the year.   Doing well at AAA with too many walks.  He has a ways to go yet but I can see Elias protecting him.

 

Staying 

Starters -(8 -10 plus Johnson in the minors)  Means, Wells, Kremer, Bradish, GRod, Hall, Rom, Zimmermann, Maybe Irvin, Maybe Watson.  Johnson on the 40 man but will be in the minors.  6 through 10 starters may join the pen.

Relievers -  (11-12 ) Bautista, Cano, Baker, Perez, Tate, Baumann, Voth, Vespi, Hernandez,  Gillaspie, Denoyer, Maybe  Coulombe. 

Total pitchers on the 40 man roster as of now  19-23.

Next up the position players.

JMO

Edited May 18, 2023 by wildcard

[DirtyBird]

What is significant about the 25% mark?

[sportsfan8703]

Is this a back door way of sneaking in another "Rule 5 roster crunch" thread?  

[NCRaven]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Is this a back door way of sneaking in another "Rule 5 roster crunch" thread?  

Nah.  When he gets to the position players it will become another Frazier must go thread.

[wildcard]

Position Players

Going

1) Frazier -  Could be gone at the deadline if the O's can find any takers.  If not he will not be back next year.

2) Santander - The O's probably need him too much to trade him at the deadline but.....   This off season the O's will have one year of team control left for him.  They will probably trade him this off season. He will be traded for prospects to keep the farm system expanding.

3) O'Hearn  -  If he is  out of options this  off season he will probably not be back next season.

Add

Cowser -  Could be soon

Westburg - It will probably take an injury to someone on the 26 man roster to get him promoted but he deserves it.

Kjerstad -  Has to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.  Could be in AAA in June.  And in the majors by the third week on 2024 depending on if the O's think he could be Rookie of the Year.

Handley - This is a maybe.  His OBP is high.   But he has to stop making errors.   Will be Rule 5 eligible.   O's want another backup catcher.   The Torrens transaction proves that.

Staying

(15-16) Adley, Mountcastle, Urias, Mateo, Gunnar,  Hays, Mullins, McKenna, McCann, Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers,  Ortiz, Westburg, Vavra, Maybe Handley

The first nine are established on the O's as a contending team.  The last 6 -7 have options and will earn their way onto the 13 man position player roster.

Overall that is  34-39 players for the 40 man roster.

JMO

What do you think?

Edited May 17, 2023 by wildcard

[wildcard]

42 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

What is significant about the 25% mark?

We/I have a little better feel for who may stay based on their performance  so far.

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Is this a back door way of sneaking in another "Rule 5 roster crunch" thread?  

So far I don't see a Rule 5 crunch.

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Nah.  When he gets to the position players it will become another Frazier must go thread.

I will not be because I start one.

[HandsomeQuack]

How does 20 days in the minors affect options? Is an option not used if a player is down for less time than that?

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, HandsomeQuack said:

How does 20 days in the minors affect options? Is an option not used if a player is down for less time than that?

Yes.

[foxfield]

I think Hays, Santander and Mountcastle are all questionable long term pieces.  Not that they do not have value, but I could see any of them supplanted from the roster.

[RZNJ]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Position Players

Going

1) Frazier -  Could be gone at the deadline if the O's can find any takers.  If not he will not be back next year.

2) Santander - The O's probably need him too much to trade him at the deadline but.....   This off season the O's will have one year of team control left for him.  They will probably trade him this off season. He will be traded for prospects to keep the farm system expanding.

3) O'Hearn  -  If he is  out of options this  off season he will probably not be back next season.

Add

Cowser -  Could be soon

Westburg - It will probably take an injury to someone on the 26 man roster to get him promoted but he deserves it.

Kjerstad -  Has to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.  Could be in AAA in June.  And in the majors by the third week on 2024 depending on if the O's think he could be Rookie of the Year.

Handley - This is a maybe.  His OBP is high.   But he has to stop making errors.   Will be Rule 5 eligible.   O's want another backup catcher.   The Torrens transaction proves that.

Staying

(15-16) Adley, Mountcastle, Urias, Mateo, Gunnar,  Hays, Mullins, McKenna, McCann, Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers,  Ortiz, Westburg, Vavra, Maybe Handley

The first nine are established on the O's as a contending team.  The last 6 -7 have options and will earn their way onto the 13 man position player roster.

Overall that is  34-39 players for the 40 man roster.

JMO

What do you think?

I don’t think Mountcastle is back next year.  They might just ride Santander out as a placeholder at 1B/RF/DH

[Frobby]

I could see either Hays, Mountcastle or both being traded.  Neither one really fits the new plate discipline philosophy.  

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t think Mountcastle is back next year.  They might just ride Santander out as a placeholder at 1B/RF/DH

Mountcastle is on pace for a big year.   36 homers and 116 RBI.  I don't expect him to keep that up but if he does 30 and 100 there are not trading him no matter what is OBP may be.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mountcastle is on pace for a big year.   36 homers and 116 RBI.  I don't expect him to keep that up but if he does 30 and 100 there are not trading him no matter what is OBP may be.

I’ll take that bet.