The Westburg and Cowser dilemma

[cnmilton]

Here is the problem with bringing up both Westburg and Cowser, at the same time as Gunnar: if this team truly wants to compete for the playoffs, it is really hard to do this with so many inexperienced players on the active roster. They are rookies, and are going to struggle. Gunnar is going through the normal rookie learning curve, and I have read people talking about him maybe needing to be sent down due to his struggles. Adley struggled when he came up last year. Julio Rodriquez struggled when he came up with Seattle last year, and he won Rookie of the year.

 

The question then becomes, are you willing on punting on making the playoffs this year, for the opportunity for all these young players to get experience and try to make your run starting next year?

[maybenxtyr]

15 minutes ago, cnmilton said:

Here is the problem with bringing up both Westburg and Cowser, at the same time as Gunnar: if this team truly wants to compete for the playoffs, it is really hard to do this with so many inexperienced players on the active roster. They are rookies, and are going to struggle. Gunnar is going through the normal rookie learning curve, and I have read people talking about him maybe needing to be sent down due to his struggles. Adley struggled when he came up last year. Julio Rodriquez struggled when he came up with Seattle last year, and he won Rookie of the year.

 

The question then becomes, are you willing on punting on making the playoffs this year, for the opportunity for all these young players to get experience and try to make your run starting next year?

As has been said many times before, being a rookie doesn't guarantee that a player will struggle. Also, some of them will have to play at some point... they're not going to trade all of them.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Wells has a 3.29 ERA.  I think that is who he is.

Gibson has a  3.82 ERA.   I think he will be around a 4.00 ERA

Kremer has a 2.45 ERA in May.  He had a 3.23 ERA last year.   I think he can repeat last year.

Bradish has a 2.76 ERA in May.   He had a 3.28 in the 2nd half last year.     I think he can repeat the 3.28.

 Voth had a 3.04 ERA last year.   And I expect GRod back pitching better.  

This is why I feel good about the rotation.

When it comes to the O’s players (in particular their pitchers) you like to pick stats from a certain time period (usually their best work) and assert that is who they are or what you think they will do. And that’s fine. I’m just not into “hope” when it comes to making evaluations about my team. We are just different in that way. I haven’t found the blind hope/faith/unbridled optimism to serve me well as an O’s fan. Because it rarely matches reality and usually leads to disappointment.

For example, you say that Grayson will be back soon and pitching better. I’m like “what in the world is that based on?” What have you seen about his lack of command this ENTIRE SEASON that says to you, “oh that’s fine. He will get better results in the near future”?

You may “feel good” about this rotation. But if we get matched up against some of the other teams rotations, other than blind faith/hope/optimism I don’t see how you can like our guys abilities more than their guys. You continuously talk about what our guys “can be” but most of these teams have guys who have been and still are. Just look at MIN, NY, HOU, TEX rotations. Which of those teams do you like less than “our guys”?

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, cnmilton said:

Here is the problem with bringing up both Westburg and Cowser, at the same time as Gunnar: if this team truly wants to compete for the playoffs, it is really hard to do this with so many inexperienced players on the active roster. They are rookies, and are going to struggle. Gunnar is going through the normal rookie learning curve, and I have read people talking about him maybe needing to be sent down due to his struggles. Adley struggled when he came up last year. Julio Rodriquez struggled when he came up with Seattle last year, and he won Rookie of the year.

 

The question then becomes, are you willing on punting on making the playoffs this year, for the opportunity for all these young players to get experience and try to make your run starting next year?

I  don't see the O's intentionally punting on the playoffs.    And I don't see them bringing up both Westburg and Cowser at the same time.   They could bring up Westburg or Ortiz until Cowser is off the IL and swinging well.   But they would send one of the infielders back down when Cowser is ready.

Cowser is the best fit to replace Mullins.   When Cowser is healthy.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

When it comes to the O’s players (in particular their pitchers) you like to pick stats from a certain time period (usually their best work) and assert that is who they are or what you think they will do. And that’s fine. I’m just not into “hope” when it comes to making evaluations about my team. We are just different in that way. I haven’t found the blind hope/faith/unbridled optimism to serve me well as an O’s fan. Because it rarely matches reality and usually leads to disappointment.

For example, you say that Grayson will be back soon and pitching better. I’m like “what in the world is that based on?” What have you seen about his lack of command this ENTIRE SEASON that says to you, “oh that’s fine. He will get better results in the near future”?

You may “feel good” about this rotation. But if we get matched up against some of the other teams rotations, other than blind faith/hope/optimism I don’t see how you can like our guys abilities more than their guys. You continuously talk about what our guys “can be” but most of these teams have guys who have been and still are. Just look at MIN, NY, HOU, TEX rotations. Which of those teams do you like less than “our guys”?

I don't consider it hope.  I consider it player development and player progress.  

And I think O's fan should get use to promoting prospects to the majors and watching them develop because that is the way Elias has built this team.  

I think this winter Santander is going to traded because he will be a FA after 2024.   And like Mancini I expect Elias to want pitching prospects in return.   

This desire for the O's to get a TOR starter in trade or FA is just that....  A Fan Desire.   I see nothing in Elias or ownership's  track record to say that is the path the O's will go.

And Elias has one of the best teams in baseball using this development  and plugging holes with one year veterans.  So I see no reason to believe he will change. 

[Bemorewins]

35 minutes ago, cnmilton said:

Here is the problem with bringing up both Westburg and Cowser, at the same time as Gunnar: if this team truly wants to compete for the playoffs, it is really hard to do this with so many inexperienced players on the active roster. They are rookies, and are going to struggle. Gunnar is going through the normal rookie learning curve, and I have read people talking about him maybe needing to be sent down due to his struggles. Adley struggled when he came up last year. Julio Rodriquez struggled when he came up with Seattle last year, and he won Rookie of the year.

 

The question then becomes, are you willing on punting on making the playoffs this year, for the opportunity for all these young players to get experience and try to make your run starting next year?

I have been trying to say this for a while (maybe not as good as you did here).

But IMO many posters/fans have unrealistic expectations as it relates to some of our prospects. It is MUCH less common in the modern game for guys to come up from the Minors and hit the ground running. It just doesn’t happen that frequently. The much more common occurrence is for acclimation struggles like those that you pointed out and MANY others.

And for those who advocate for a replacement of most of our current players (even those contributing) with all young guys/prospects, I ask this: when does the rebuild end? Will next year be a year that we try to build the best Major League roster we can and attempt to solve the frontline pitching hole that we have? Or are you that dogmatic about having a “pipeline” of all homegrown players that you believe that Elias & co can solve all problems at all times in-house? The Major of error for that approach seems razor thin - i.e. what if we don’t have an in-house solution(s) that are as good as our competitors starting pitchers come post season time? Are you comfortable going into most post season series with a misshapen roster filled with back of the rotation guys, thus being outgunned on a regular basis when the games matter most?

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't consider it hope.  I consider it player development and player progress.  

And I think O's fan should get use to promoting prospects to the majors and watching them develop because that is the way Elias has built this team.  

I think this winter Santander is going to traded because he will be a FA after 2024.   And like Mancini I expect Elias to want pitching prospects in return.   

This desire for the O's to get a TOR starter in trade or FA is just that....  A Fan Desire.   I see nothing in Elias or ownership's  track record to say that is the path the O's will go.

And Elias has one of the best teams in baseball using this development  and plugging holes with one year veterans.  So I see no reason to believe he will change. 

If you are correct (which you may be) I see reason that we will win anything of substance. If he is comfortable entering into the post season with a talent deficit in the pitching department, I don’t see that as an effective strategy.

He doesn’t have to trade for 1 year rentals, he can trade for pitchers with more than one year remaining on their contract. 

One last thing, you failed to answer my question: Of NY, MIN, TEX, HOU, which team(s) would you rather have our rotation than theirs? Because in order to win the AL this year or any other those are the kind of teams that we are going to have to get through (multiple ones). 

I recognize that it is my desire for the team to get better and give itself a legit shot to win the World Series. And here’s where my hope is - I hope that’s how Elias feels as well. Other wise,  we might as well prepare in advance for several early round playoff exists/failures. You need pitching in the postseason. Like pitchers who have the talent to execute against good hitters in high leverage pressure filled situations. As things currently stand, we don’t have enough of those.

[Sanity Check]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Wells has a 3.29 ERA.  I think that is who he is.

Gibson has a  3.82 ERA.   I think he will be around a 4.00 ERA

Kremer has a 2.45 ERA in May.  He had a 3.23 ERA last year.   I think he can repeat last year.

Bradish has a 2.76 ERA in May.   He had a 3.28 in the 2nd half last year.     I think he can repeat the 3.28.

 Voth had a 3.04 ERA last year.   And I expect GRod back pitching better.  

This is why I feel good about the rotation.

I am not as optimistic as you are, but I would love for you to be right!!

[Sanity Check]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't consider it hope.  I consider it player development and player progress.  

And I think O's fan should get use to promoting prospects to the majors and watching them develop because that is the way Elias has built this team.  

I think this winter Santander is going to traded because he will be a FA after 2024.   And like Mancini I expect Elias to want pitching prospects in return.   

This desire for the O's to get a TOR starter in trade or FA is just that....  A Fan Desire.   I see nothing in Elias or ownership's  track record to say that is the path the O's will go.

And Elias has one of the best teams in baseball using this development  and plugging holes with one year veterans.  So I see no reason to believe he will change. 

As it relates to Elias's Track record, at least as part of management of the Astros when he was there,  there is a history there of grabbing an Ace or two at the deadline for prospects.  They got Verlander and Cole.  So, it's been done before with him part of the management team, and I think that is likely his plan here.  Basically, get the difference-making arms when the rest of the pieces are in place to make a run.  If our rookies and half the lineup continue to struggle, then we might not even see him "go for it" this year.  When the Astros offense was finally clicking, they added the arms and they "took off" from there..  See what I did there??  Take Off......  That's the blueprint.....

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

One last thing, you failed to answer my question: Of NY, MIN, TEX, HOU, which team(s) would you rather have our rotation than theirs? Because in order to win the AL this year or any other those are the kind of teams that we are going to have to get through (multiple ones.

I will answer it this way.   Compare these teams to the O's.  Who has the better record right now.   The O's have out played them all with Means out.  GRod and Henderson struggling.     All three of those players may be better in the 2nd half.

Fans (not just you) tend to think that going an getting veterans is the right answer.  And it can be.   But the O's are winning without the big names so far.

[Sydnor]

13 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

As it relates to Elias's Track record, at least as part of management of the Astros when he was there,  there is a history there of grabbing an Ace or two at the deadline for prospects.  They got Verlander and Cole.  So, it's been done before with him part of the management team, and I think that is likely his plan here.  Basically, get the difference-making arms when the rest of the pieces are in place to make a run.  If our rookies and half the lineup continue to struggle, then we might not even see him "go for it" this year.  When the Astros offense was finally clicking, they added the arms and they "took off" from there..  See what I did there??  Take Off......  That's the blueprint.....

I agree with all of this. The Astros also added veteran hitters to the lineup through free agency. They gave Josh Reddick a 4 year deal at age 30. They signed Brantley to 2 year deals at age 32 and 34. They signed Beltran when he was 39. Is Elias going to sign Santander? I don’t know, probably not, but maybe they view him as similar to Reddick. Are they going to extend Mullins? Again, probably not, but maybe they try to get him on a shorter term deal than Altuve, but do want to extend him because they view him similarly to Altuve. I do think just assuming Elias will trade every player as the player becomes expensive is not necessarily accurate because everything he has done at this point is very similar to what the Astros did, and the Astros have never simply relied on prospects at all positions to carry the lineup. What he will do in the future depends a lot on the support of ownership and we don’t know what that will look like (though I have my doubts as to the kind of financial support that ownership will provide).

[maybenxtyr]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I will answer it this way.   Compare these teams to the O's.  Who has the better record right now.   The O's have out played them all with Means out.  GRod and Henderson struggling.     All three of those players may be better in the 2nd half.

Fans (not just you) tend to think that going an getting veterans is the right answer.  And it can be.   But the O's are winning without the big names so far.

Well, not to nitpick but Texas has a better record today. 

 

I agree with you that I'd rather see some improvements, and expect to see some improvements in-house rather than some of the trade options that may be available. Unfortunately, today's team is quite a bit different than what it was when they were building their 34-20 record. They really need to step up and at least maintain until either Mullins is back or Cowser is healthy.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I will answer it this way.   Compare these teams to the O's.  Who has the better record right now.   The O's have out played them all with Means out.  GRod and Henderson struggling.     All three of those players may be better in the 2nd half.

Fans (not just you) tend to think that going a getting veterans is the right answer.  And it can be.   But the O's are winning without the big names so far.

Do you acknowledge that winning in May is MUCH DIFFERENT than winning in October?

We have the org depth to win in the regular season. Or stated this way, we have enough talent in order to maintain a reasonably high floor. But what I am concerned about is that we don’t have enough high end talent in order to raise our postseason ceiling.

You speak of Gunnar and Grayson as though it is a given that they become superstars or even really good players this season. They may give us very little for much of the season or all of it. Again, you are very high on Grayson being able to turn things around for some unexplained reason, other than what you call “development”.

Unfortunately, in the non-orange and black colored world, we are not the Guardians, Dodgers, or Rays. We have not shown the ability to consistently develop top level producing pitchers. 

Means had a very serious injury so he might not be back to his old self this season or ever.  And even if he does, is he/was he ever better than Cole, Gausman, deGrom, Ryan, Gray, Rodon, etc? 

Do you recognize that in a short series depth is a factor that is much less likely to be a major determinant for winning? In a 5/7 game series our starting pitcher is going to have to be better or at least as good as theirs multiple times. And we will have to do that for 3 ROUNDS. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

1 hour ago, cnmilton said:

Here is the problem with bringing up both Westburg and Cowser, at the same time as Gunnar: if this team truly wants to compete for the playoffs, it is really hard to do this with so many inexperienced players on the active roster. They are rookies, and are going to struggle. Gunnar is going through the normal rookie learning curve, and I have read people talking about him maybe needing to be sent down due to his struggles. Adley struggled when he came up last year. Julio Rodriquez struggled when he came up with Seattle last year, and he won Rookie of the year.

 

The question then becomes, are you willing on punting on making the playoffs this year, for the opportunity for all these young players to get experience and try to make your run starting next year?

The question for Elias and company actually is, "Can either of these guys out hit Vavra, McKenna, Ohearn or Frazier right now?"

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

I agree with all of this. The Astros also added veteran hitters to the lineup through free agency. They gave Josh Reddick a 4 year deal at age 30. They signed Brantley to 2 year deals at age 32 and 34. They signed Beltran when he was 39. Is Elias going to sign Santander? I don’t know, probably not, but maybe they view him as similar to Reddick. Are they going to extend Mullins? Again, probably not, but maybe they try to get him on a shorter term deal than Altuve, but do want to extend him because they view him similarly to Altuve. I do think just assuming Elias will trade every player as the player becomes expensive is not necessarily accurate because everything he has done at this point is very similar to what the Astros did, and the Astros have never simply relied on prospects at all positions to carry the lineup. What he will do in the future depends a lot on the support of ownership and we don’t know what that will look like (though I have my doubts as to the kind of financial support that ownership will provide).

I think Elias is managing more like Tampa than the Astros.   The answer to will Elias trade every player as they approach FA is probably related to two things.  

1) Does he see the player still be productive the whole extension time frame.   

2) Does he have in-house replacements.

JMO.