The Westburg and Cowser dilemma

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Well, not to nitpick but Texas has a better record today. 

 

I agree with you that I'd rather see some improvements, and expect to see some improvements in-house rather than some of the trade options that may be available. Unfortunately, today's team is quite a bit different than what it was when they were building their 34-20 record. They really need to step up and at least maintain until either Mullins is back or Cowser is healthy.

Elias activated Urias after two minor league rehab games.   I expect something similar for Cowser's callup.

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Do you acknowledge that winning in May is MUCH DIFFERENT than winning in October?

We have the org depth to win in the regular season. Or stated this way, we have enough talent in order to maintain a reasonably high floor. But what I am concerned about is that we don’t have enough high end talent in order to raise our postseason ceiling.

You speak of Gunnar and Grayson as though it is a given that they become superstars or even really good players this season. They may give us very little for much of the season or all of it. Again, you are very high on Grayson being able to turn things around for some unexplained reason, other than what you call “development”.

Unfortunately, in the non-orange and black colored world, we are not the Guardians, Dodgers, or Rays. We have not shown the ability to consistently develop top level producing pitchers. 

Means had a very serious injury so he might not be back to his old self this season or ever.  And even if he does, is he/was he ever better than Cole, Gausman, deGrom, Ryan, Gray, Rodon, etc? 

Do you recognize that in a short series depth is a factor that is much less likely to be a major determinant for winning? In a 5/7 game series our starting pitcher is going to have to be better or at least as good as theirs multiple times. And we will have to do that for 3 ROUNDS. 

So what does it take to trade for one of those type of pitchers.   Holliday? Cowser? Kjerstad?   I don't see the O's doing that?

[maybenxtyr]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias activated Urias after two minor league rehab games.   I expect something similar for Cowser's callup.

I hope so. He's done most everything you'd expect a good prospect to do in AAA. This is going to be a tough week, because everyone knows that NY, Tampa and Toronto are not going to just go away. That's not even taking into consideration the other divisional opponents tracking for a WC spot.

[Bemorewins]

58 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So what does it take to trade for one of those type of pitchers.   Holliday? Cowser? Kjerstad?   I don't see the O's doing that?

Huh?? So, unless we trade one of our top prospects we can’t land a talented frontline starter who is available? 

Is that the kind of “all or nothing” proposition that you believe in? If so, no wonder you don’t want to trade for anyone!

Holliday isn’t getting moved and shouldn’t be under consideration. He is a 1-1 who may be the #1 rated prospect in baseball by season’s end. 

I honestly don’t see Kjerstad or Cowser getting moved as they are both some of Elias’s top of the first round selections.

However, this is the good thing about the Orioles org talent, it is not just too heavy. We have EIGHT top 100 prospects at the moment with one of 2 positioning themselves to join the rankings of that group. 

We can trade 2/3 off that list while still being able to retain Holliday, Cowser, and Kjerstad. 

I posed the question (I believe earlier in this thread): I wonder what a prospect/trade package of Westburg/Ortiz with Mayo/Norby and Urias could land us? That’s 2 starting infielders right now, plus a possible third within a year’s time. I wonder what other teams who are in the buyer’s market, could and would be able to beat that?

That’s the kind of trade that I am for, a trade where we give up value (which we will have to in order to obtain a real improving piece) and yet not really have it impact our future much if at all.

If we have to give up 1 of Ortiz or Westburg, we still have the other to man 2B long term. If we have to surrender Norby or Mayo, we still have Kjerstad for 1B/DH long term. 3B is Henderson’s for the foreseeable future. SS will be Holliday’s. The outfield configuration will be LF/RF Cowser and Hays, with Mullins manning CF. Of course, Adley at C and our 9 is good to go.

However, even after all of this, we don’t have a TOR pitcher. Or at least enough of it. Yes we hope Grayson develops and becomes that one day. But it’s clear he is NOWHERE CLOSE to that right now. But after him, what other top end starting pitching talent do we have? Our competitors (except for the Rays unless Baz comes back) have multiple very good starting pitchers. We are going to need to matchup in order to give ourselves a decent chance at advancement in the AL.

[sportsfan8703]

We have the resources available to have a legit 13 player position group at the MLB level and to use it like TB. But… we haven’t called up Westburg and Cowser yet… and we won’t sit Mountcastle some. 

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We have the resources available to have a legit 13 player position group at the MLB level and to use it like TB. But… we haven’t called up Westburg and Cowser yet… and we won’t sit Mountcastle some. 

What good is a 13 player position group when you don’t have enough high end starting pitching talent? Tampa had McClannahan, we have….??

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Huh?? So, unless we trade one of our top prospects we can’t land a talented frontline starter who is available? 

Is that the kind of “all or nothing” proposition that you believe in? If so, no wonder you don’t want to trade for anyone!

Holliday isn’t getting moved and shouldn’t be under consideration. He is a 1-1 who may be the #1 rated prospect in baseball by season’s end. 

I honestly don’t see Kjerstad or Cowser getting moved as they are both some of Elias’s top of the first round selections.

However, this is the good thing about the Orioles org talent, it is not just too heavy. We have EIGHT top 100 prospects at the moment with one of 2 positioning themselves to join the rankings of that group. 

We can trade 2/3 off that list while still being able to retain Holliday, Cowser, and Kjerstad. 

I posed the question (I believe earlier in this thread): I wonder what a prospect/trade package of Westburg/Ortiz with Mayo/Norby and Urias could land us? That’s 2 starting infielders right now, plus a possible third within a year’s time. I wonder what other teams who are in the buyer’s market, could and would be able to beat that?

That’s the kind of trade that I am for, a trade where we give up value (which we will have to in order to obtain a real improving piece) and yet not really have it impact our future much if at all.

If we have to give up 1 of Ortiz or Westburg, we still have the other to man 2B long term. If we have to surrender Norby or Mayo, we still have Kjerstad for 1B/DH long term. 3B is Henderson’s for the foreseeable future. SS will be Holliday’s. The outfield configuration will be LF/RF Cowser and Hays, with Mullins manning CF. Of course, Adley at C and our 9 is good to go.

However, even after all of this, we don’t have a TOR pitcher. Or at least enough of it. Yes we hope Grayson develops and becomes that one day. But it’s clear he is NOWHERE CLOSE to that right now. But after him, what other top end starting pitching talent do we have? Our competitors (except for the Rays unless Baz comes back) have multiple very good starting pitchers. We are going to need to matchup in order to give ourselves a decent chance at advancement in the AL.

Frazier is on a one year contract and is probably not back next year.  Mateo is edging his way out of the starting SS job.  I don't see the O's trading Ortiz or Westburg.   They are part of the future.

I would say Means is part of the pitching depth at the moment.

I don't think Elias will trade Mayo.

So they guys I see that Elias might trade are Stowers, Norby and Prieto.   But that is not enough for a TOR starter IMO.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Frazier is on a one year contract and is probably not back next year.  Mateo is edging his way out of the starting SS job.  I don't see the O's trading Ortiz or Westburg.   They are part of the future.

I would say Means is part of the pitching depth at the moment.

I don't think Elias will trade Mayo.

So they guys I see that Elias might trade are Stowers, Norby and Prieto.   But that is not enough for a TOR starter IMO.

So no improvements to the pitching then other than the long shot hope of Means returning to form?

Again, I acknowledge that you could be right, but I HOPE that you are not. Because a great lineup absent of high end pitching will only get you so far.

And no, Stowers, Norby, and Prieto will not get you a good starter. Just think if we were the team on the other end, what that be appealing?

I guess we will see if Elias is flexible or as dogmatic as you claim come the trade deadline.

[sportsfan8703]

20 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

What good is a 13 player position group when you don’t have enough high end starting pitching talent? Tampa had McClannahan, we have….??

Slow down on the high end pitching crusade. Give yourself a break. That’s a trade deadline discussion. 
 

Our offense is the issue right now. The pitching has been really good minus Grayson. 
 

Where does Dylan Cease bat in the lineup every day?  Haha. C’mon bro. 

[Bemorewins]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Slow down on the high end pitching crusade. Give yourself a break. That’s a trade deadline discussion. 
 

Our offense is the issue right now. The pitching has been really good minus Grayson. 
 

Where does Dylan Cease bat in the lineup every day?  Haha. C’mon bro. 

Wasn’t the original poster’s question about which one stays and which has to go as part of a trade between Ortiz and Westburg.

I’ve been a fan of the O’s since 1988. I’m well aware of when the in-season trading window typically opens.

I’m not sure where you pulled the name Dylan Cease from? Where did I say that the Orioles must trade for him?

I don’t think there is much we can do about the recent offense woes other than bring up Cowser when healthy to try to get some of Mullins production, though that probably is not very realistic. We just have to hope that Mateo snaps out of his May long funk. Adley starts to hit better and/or Gunnar gets it going.

Are all of those likely to happen simultaneously? Probably not. Could some? Hopefully.

Back to the pitching, it has been good the last turn through. The turn before that only Gibson was good.

[sportsfan8703]

Does anyone have an idea of when the Super Two cut off will be this year?  Could Elias be playing in safe and waiting closer to the end of June to promote Westburg?

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Does anyone have an idea of when the Super Two cut off will be this year?  Could Elias be playing in safe and waiting closer to the end of June to promote Westburg?

You won’t know this until next year.

[Just Regular]

I know Rick's posted these kind of findings before too, but Fangraphs wrote it up yesterday on Bo Naylor.    Today until Game 162 is 17 + 31 + 31 + 30 + 1 = 110, so by now the $$$$ part of the equation is very likely settled.     For the Orioles on Cowser/Westburg, the question is do you want 6.6 years of service, or 6.5, 6.4, etc.    I'm iffier on Westburg but believe Cowser clearly is one of the Bats they want up against tournament pitching in October if we're there.    Literally tonight he could begin his brain's acquisition of data how to compete with Jose Berrios' pitches.

The Super Two rule allows a group of players with two-plus years of service time to earn an extra year of arbitration eligibility (and, therefore, more money). Of those players with two-plus years, the top 22 percent of service-time accruers gain the extra year. That’s why you see some top prospects stowed in Triple A until late May or early June every season.

Now, as it pertains to Naylor, he has already banked six days of service time (five last year, plus a day as the 27th man for a doubleheader last month). So, for instance, if he were called up Tuesday, he could end the season with 117 days of service time (111 plus six).

The big question, then: When’s the Super Two cutoff? It’s hard to know for sure because it’s based on a percentage of players and you’re projecting two years into the future. Last season, a player needed two years plus 128 days of service time to qualify for Super Two status. The year before, it was two years plus 116 days. Over the course of the past dozen years, the number has ranged from 115 to 146, with an average of 128.5.

In short, the Guardians are probably at or past the cutoff point for Naylor. They certainly should be in the next week or so. As for Naylor, to even sniff Super Two status, he’d also have to avoid a demotion to the minors for the next two-plus years.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

I know Rick's posted these kind of findings before too, but Fangraphs wrote it up yesterday on Bo Naylor.    Today until Game 162 is 17 + 31 + 31 + 30 + 1 = 110, so by now the $$$$ part of the equation is very likely settled.     For the Orioles on Cowser/Westburg, the question is do you want 6.6 years of service, or 6.5, 6.4, etc.    I'm iffier on Westburg but believe Cowser clearly is one of the Bats they want up against tournament pitching in October if we're there.    Literally tonight he could begin his brain's acquisition of data how to compete with Jose Berrios' pitches.

The Super Two rule allows a group of players with two-plus years of service time to earn an extra year of arbitration eligibility (and, therefore, more money). Of those players with two-plus years, the top 22 percent of service-time accruers gain the extra year. That’s why you see some top prospects stowed in Triple A until late May or early June every season.

Now, as it pertains to Naylor, he has already banked six days of service time (five last year, plus a day as the 27th man for a doubleheader last month). So, for instance, if he were called up Tuesday, he could end the season with 117 days of service time (111 plus six).

The big question, then: When’s the Super Two cutoff? It’s hard to know for sure because it’s based on a percentage of players and you’re projecting two years into the future. Last season, a player needed two years plus 128 days of service time to qualify for Super Two status. The year before, it was two years plus 116 days. Over the course of the past dozen years, the number has ranged from 115 to 146, with an average of 128.5.

In short, the Guardians are probably at or past the cutoff point for Naylor. They certainly should be in the next week or so. As for Naylor, to even sniff Super Two status, he’d also have to avoid a demotion to the minors for the next two-plus years.

Thanks for the info. So what day are we at currently?  Are we passed the 128.5 day?  I think this effects Westburg the most. He has a clear bath to ABs now that Mountcastle is on the IL and he could play in the infield for LHP for either Gunnar or Frazier. He could be playing 4-5 games a week. 

[RVAOsFan]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Thanks for the info. So what day are we at currently?  Are we passed the 128.5 day?  I think this effects Westburg the most. He has a clear bath to ABs now that Mountcastle is on the IL and he could play in the infield for LHP for either Gunnar or Frazier. He could be playing 4-5 games a week. 

I think Gunnar needs to be locked into the lineup like fort knox until he comes off this heater whether he is facing RHP or LHP.  Probably a good time for him to gain some confidence against a LHP to shake the platoon stereotype.