The O’s have a relatively healthy, stable rotation

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

But what about the McCann sprained ankle?

Net gain because it allowed someone else to DH instead!  

[Just Regular]

The SP4 and SP5 roles have more importance in season but they sure as shift ban could use some roster rules help if the 90th-150th best length pitchers are to keep their traditional importance.

The atomization of pitching and run prevention is I believe the main Andrew Friedman hedge fund effect on the game many of us grew up on.     Paul Skenes or Grayson Rodriguez might be All-Stars yet rarely make 30 starts, and even for the very best HOF voters may need some time to adapt to career outputs being lower.

I look forward to us becoming enough of a juggernaut our top pitchers can take 2nd half time off with "mild shoulder strains", or whatchamacallits, and even what the SigBot comes up with for September.

[Too Tall]

When we start talking about relative health in a positive fashion, I harken back to wondering about a certain shortstop's final stat's when he was other worldly and what happened right thereafter. I am a firm believer you don't mess with the Baseball Gods. Please be careful!!!!! 

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

While the O’s don’t have an ace, what they do have is a relatively healthy, stable rotation.   Lots of teams don’t.  

Looking around the AL, only one team has four pitchers who have thrown enough innings to qualify — Toronto, with Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt and Kikuchi.  Their fifth starter, Alex Manoah, has been banished to the minors.

The Orioles are one of seven AL teams that has three qualified starters (Gibson, Wells and Kremer).   Bradish falls just short but could join the qualified list sometime soon.  The other teams are: MIN (Lopez, Ryan, Gray), CWS (Giolito, Lynn, Cease), KCR (Lyles, Greinke, Singer, but Greinke is on the IL now), TEX (Eovaldi, J. Gray, Perez), HOU (Valdez, Javier, Brown) and SEA (Kirby, Gilbert, Castillo).   Of the remaining teams, Tampa has two qualified starters (but one is McClanahan, currently on the IL); NYY, CLE, DET, LAA, and OAK have one each; and Boston has nobody.  

There are six teams that don’t have five starters who have made as many as ten starts.   BOS, CLE, DET, and HOU have four pitchers who’ve made 10+ starts, while TBR and KCR only have three.

Tons of starters are on the IL, for example: McClanahan (TBR). Cortes (NYY), Houck (BOS), Sale (BOS), Quantrill (CLE), Battenfield (CLE), Wentz (DET), Boyd (DET), Turnbull (DET), Kopech (CWS), Clevinger (CWS), Greinke (KCR),Keller (KCR), deGrom (TEX), Urquidy (HOU), Suarez (LAA), Miller (SEA), Gonzales (SEA) and Kaprielian (OAK).  That’s an incomplete list that, among other things, doesn’t include pitchers who’ve missed the whole season, like Rodón (NYY), who is coming off the IL today.

It’s kind of amazing that, with all that instability, the O’s only rank 11th in starters’ ERA and 9th in IP/start.   But at least we know who’s going to pitch for us.  


 

I have been saying since the winter that I like the rotation.   I expected GRod to do better but he is about ready for another try. 

I think this off season Elias trades Santander in a Bundy like deal.   Bring 4 pitchers back.  That plus  Hall, Johnson, McDermott and Armbruester should fill the pipeline.  I have not seen anything out of Povich the excites me yet.

I would not bet on Elias drafting pitchers in July.   Maybe, maybe not.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I have been saying since the winter that I like the rotation.   I expected GRod to do better but he is about ready for another try. 

You were very rosy on Kremer, but Bradish and Wells have panned out so far. 

[wildcard]

49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You were very rosy on Kremer, but Bradish and Wells have panned out so far. 

I still believe in Kremer.    Have not backed off a bit.  Kremer had a bad April but since May 1st he has had 12 starts and allowed more than 3 earned runs in any on those starts twice.    Very consistent in 10 for those 12 starts.   10 good ones and 2 bad one.   I will take that all season long.

9-4 after 98 IP.   I am looking for a big 2nd half from him.

Edited July 7, 2023 by wildcard

[now]

The rotation situation also makes it hard to guess where a trade target might fit: who would get bumped? The whole first half has been unpredictable in this regard, with even Irvin chipping in tonight. With GRod's return likely soon, he's the sixth man, before even considering outside acquisitions. Wells has been probably the most consistent but maybe also has the most upside as a needed bullpen piece. What gives? The answer varies week to week. As they say, it's a good problem to have... so far.

[FlipTheBird]

4 minutes ago, now said:

The rotation situation also makes it hard to guess where a trade target might fit: who would get bumped? The whole first half has been unpredictable in this regard, with even Irvin chipping in tonight. With GRod's return likely soon, he's the sixth man, before even considering outside acquisitions. Wells has been probably the most consistent but maybe also has the most upside as a needed bullpen piece. What gives? The answer varies week to week. As they say, it's a good problem to have... so far.

If the bullpen was a little more stable I’d suggest going to a 6-man rotation for a little while to help manage innings… but that does not seem likely.

[2001OriolesFan]

On 7/7/2023 at 10:15 AM, interloper said:

And despite that, I kind of have no idea what to expect start-to-start, with exception to Wells and Bradish. 

Like, what is going on with Kremer and his 4.78 ERA/4.95 FIP? His strikeouts are up, his walks are (very slightly) down, but his homers and hits are way up. He just shut down the Yankees over 7 innings after allowing a 7 ER in 3 IP his previous start. Who is this guy? I have no idea. 

Kyle Gibson has a 7.71 ERA over his last 5 starts, but his FIP for the year is a very respectable 4.05. 

Their collective health and ability to gut out starts has been overall great, but it's tough to draw any conclusions about some of these guys and what to expect when they take the hill. 

 

 

Yep.  The orioles pitching reminds me of Forest Gump talking about a box of chockoletes.

 

[Frobby]

22 hours ago, wildcard said:

I still believe in Kremer.    Have not backed off a bit.  Kremer had a bad April but since May 1st he has had 12 starts and allowed more than 3 earned runs in any on those starts twice.    Very consistent in 10 for those 12 starts.   10 good ones and 2 bad one.   I will take that all season long.

9-4 after 98 IP.   I am looking for a big 2nd half from him.

Believing in Kremer is one thing.  Forecasting a 3.23 ERA for him is another.  I’m hopeful he can do a bit better than his current 4.78 in the second half.  

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Believing in Kremer is one thing.  Forecasting a 3.23 ERA for him is another.  I’m hopeful he can do a bit better than his current 4.78 in the second half.  

I am looking for a strong 2nd half as well from him.

[sportsfan8703]

23 hours ago, wildcard said:

I have been saying since the winter that I like the rotation.   I expected GRod to do better but he is about ready for another try. 

I think this off season Elias trades Santander in a Bundy like deal.   Bring 4 pitchers back.  That plus  Hall, Johnson, McDermott and Armbruester should fill the pipeline.  I have not seen anything out of Povich the excites me yet.

I would not bet on Elias drafting pitchers in July.   Maybe, maybe not.

Povich gets a lot of Ks and has been healthy. He was bit by the HR ball in June. 

I agree with you on Santander. We don’t need to limit the return to MLB SP. Just get the best return of pitching. 

[Spy Fox]

I was looking at ESPN's sortable team stats page just now and had a couple takeaways. The first is a general observation, the second is specifically about the steadiness of our rotation, which is why I put it here. 

1, The O's aren't really elite at much, even though they have an elite record. They're around the average at a lot of the stats you'd look at. 15th/30 in OPS, 17th in HRs, 17th in OBP, 14th in ERA, 16th in WHIP. Those numbers don't scream best team in the AL. Chalk it up to good fortune, good management, clutchness, what have you, but these stats line up more with the O's 66-52 pythag record than their 73-45 actual record. 

2, I was surprised to see the Orioles at 10th best in Quality Starts, with 48. If you're looking for a reason we've been able to pass the Rays in the standings, start with the guys who have been able to post that consistently solid rotation performance. In contrast to the Rays, who now have FOUR potential rotation guys out for the year with elbow injuries (the Rays have 38 QS total).

Also, the O's pitching as a whole is better than the median both in getting K's and in NOT allowing BBs. The three 2010s playoff teams were all below median at pitcher K's, and were below median at pitcher BBs two out of three times.