Kyle Stowers: I hope we trade him after rebuilding his value

[Baltimorecuse]

Stowers strikes out with a real flourish.  

[Sports Guy]

39 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

What's interesting to me is that, in the minors section, there's a thread about our top prospects in the system, with Hangouters giving their lists of the top prospects.....and Stowers in absent on just about all of them, if not all of them.  Is he no longer a prospect, or is he that far down the line now where he's somewhat irrelevant.  If it's the latter, then I'm not sure what this means about the premise of this thread.

He’s not a prospect anymore. But even if he was, he wouldn’t be a top 10 guy anyway but that says more about our system than it does it him.

[banks703]

1 hour ago, Matt Bennett said:

 

OF - Mullins, Hays, Cowser, Stowers

1B/DH/UTIL - Kjerstad, Santander, 13th man

Stowers plays 7 times. 

 

 

So, three left-handed hitting outfielders plus Kjerstad (also left-handed) and Santander for the outfield?

If for no other reason that Stowers isn't a viable Hicks replacement, it's that Hicks is a switch-hitter. Not only that but his strikeout rate is .80 per game in the major leagues whereas Kyle Stowers is 1.17 in the minor leagues. For every 100 ABs Kyle Stowers is going to strike out 37 more times than would Aaron Hicks. Adjust that for the jump to the Major Leagues and it's likely to increase. 

I like Stowers as a player but there just is not a place for him on the major league roster with the current outfielders in the system. Barring injury, I don't see him making it back to the Orioles with any real potential of playing time. 

 

I'm not suggesting that Aaron Hicks is a long-term player for the O's. He will turn 34 at the end of this season. But his ability to not strikeout, to work counts (in MLB he's seen about 4.16 pitches per plate appearance in his career. Stowers is at 3.91 in the minors) and his ability to play a passable CF (Stowers cannot) makes him a type of player that Stowers cannot replace. 

 

 

 

[banks703]

1 hour ago, Matt Bennett said:

 

OF - Mullins, Hays, Cowser, Stowers

1B/DH/UTIL - Kjerstad, Santander, 13th man

Stowers plays 7 times. 

 

 

So, three left-handed hitting outfielders plus Kjerstad (also left-handed) and Santander for the outfield?

If for no other reason that Stowers isn't a viable Hicks replacement, it's that Hicks is a switch-hitter. Not only that but his strikeout rate is .80 per game in the major leagues whereas Kyle Stowers is 1.17 in the minor leagues. For every 100 ABs Kyle Stowers is going to strike out 37 more times than would Aaron Hicks. Adjust that for the jump to the Major Leagues and it's likely to increase. 

I like Stowers as a player but there just is not a place for him on the major league roster with the current outfielders in the system. Barring injury, I don't see him making it back to the Orioles with any real potential of playing time. 

 

I'm not suggesting that Aaron Hicks is a long-term player for the O's. He will turn 34 at the end of this season. But his ability to not strikeout, to work counts (in MLB he's seen about 4.16 pitches per plate appearance in his career. Stowers is at 3.91 in the minors) and his ability to play a passable CF (Stowers cannot) makes him a type of player that Stowers cannot replace. 

 

 

 

[banks703]

1 hour ago, Matt Bennett said:

 

OF - Mullins, Hays, Cowser, Stowers

1B/DH/UTIL - Kjerstad, Santander, 13th man

Stowers plays 7 times. 

 

 

So, three left-handed hitting outfielders plus Kjerstad (also left-handed) and Santander for the outfield?

If for no other reason that Stowers isn't a viable Hicks replacement, it's that Hicks is a switch-hitter. Not only that but his strikeout rate is .80 per game in the major leagues whereas Kyle Stowers is 1.17 in the minor leagues. For every 100 ABs Kyle Stowers is going to strike out 37 more times than would Aaron Hicks. Adjust that for the jump to the Major Leagues and it's likely to increase. 

I like Stowers as a player but there just is not a place for him on the major league roster with the current outfielders in the system. Barring injury, I don't see him making it back to the Orioles with any real potential of playing time. 

 

I'm not suggesting that Aaron Hicks is a long-term player for the O's. He will turn 34 at the end of this season. But his ability to not strikeout, to work counts (in MLB he's seen about 4.16 pitches per plate appearance in his career. Stowers is at 3.91 in the minors) and his ability to play a passable CF (Stowers cannot) makes him a type of player that Stowers cannot replace. 

 

 

 

[banks703]

2 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

OF - Mullins, Hays, Cowser, Stowers

1B/DH/UTIL - Kjerstad, Santander, 13th man

Stowers plays 7 times. 

 

 

So, three left-handed hitting outfielders plus Kjerstad (also left-handed) and Santander for the outfield?

If for no other reason that Stowers isn't a viable Hicks replacement, it's that Hicks is a switch-hitter. Not only that but his strikeout rate is .80 per game in the major leagues whereas Kyle Stowers is 1.17 in the minor leagues. For every 100 ABs Kyle Stowers is going to strike out 37 more times than would Aaron Hicks. Adjust that for the jump to the Major Leagues and it's likely to increase. 

I like Stowers as a player but there just is not a place for him on the major league roster with the current outfielders in the system. Barring injury, I don't see him making it back to the Orioles with any real potential of playing time. 

I'm not suggesting that Aaron Hicks is a long-term player for the O's. He will turn 34 at the end of this season. But his ability to not strikeout, to work counts (in MLB he's seen about 4.16 pitches per plate appearance in his career. Stowers is at 3.91 in the minors) and his ability to play a passable CF (Stowers cannot) makes him a type of player that Stowers cannot replace. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by banks703

[Matt Bennett]

4 minutes ago, banks703 said:

So, three left-handed hitting outfielders plus Kjerstad (also left-handed) and Santander for the outfield?

If for no other reason that Stowers isn't a viable Hicks replacement, it's that Hicks is a switch-hitter. Not only that but his strikeout rate is .80 per game in the major leagues whereas Kyle Stowers is 1.17 in the minor leagues. For every 100 ABs Kyle Stowers is going to strike out 37 more times than would Aaron Hicks. Adjust that for the jump to the Major Leagues and it's likely to increase. 

I like Stowers as a player but there just is not a place for him on the major league roster with the current outfielders in the system. Barring injury, I don't see him making it back to the Orioles with any real potential of playing time. 

 

I'm not suggesting that Aaron Hicks is a long-term player for the O's. He will turn 34 at the end of this season. But his ability to not strikeout, to work counts (in MLB he's seen about 4.16 pitches per plate appearance in his career. Stowers is at 3.91 in the minors) and his ability to play a passable CF (Stowers cannot) makes him a type of player that Stowers cannot replace. 

 

 

 

This is nitpicky. 

1. Stowers is not needed in CF as Mullins, Cowser, Hays will be on the roster. Maybe even McKenna is the 13th man. 

2. Do any of these Left Handers have platoon concerns? Mullins had a bad 2022 against LHP but had a good 2021 and having a good 2023. Cowser and Kjerstad have raked everywhere against everybody. I haven't seen Stowers struggle against LHP. Having good players matters much more than having some perfect handedness balance. Similarly, a good hitter is much more valuable than a contact hitter. 

3. Aaron Hicks has been a league average bat in his career. Most of the evidence suggests those numbers are propped up by his prime years (27-30), much like countless number of ballplayers throughout history. His defense is declining and will only get worse. If Stowers can't replace him, we don't have much of a ballplayer to begin with. 

[banks703]

32 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

This is nitpicky. 

1. Stowers is not needed in CF as Mullins, Cowser, Hays will be on the roster. Maybe even McKenna is the 13th man. 

2. Do any of these Left Handers have platoon concerns? Mullins had a bad 2022 against LHP but had a good 2021 and having a good 2023. Cowser and Kjerstad have raked everywhere against everybody. I haven't seen Stowers struggle against LHP. Having good players matters much more than having some perfect handedness balance. Similarly, a good hitter is much more valuable than a contact hitter. 

3. Aaron Hicks has been a league average bat in his career. Most of the evidence suggests those numbers are propped up by his prime years (27-30), much like countless number of ballplayers throughout history. His defense is declining and will only get worse. If Stowers can't replace him, we don't have much of a ballplayer to begin with. 

Do you mean the facts don't support your position so there must be something wrong with them?

30+ more strikeouts per 100 ABs is not nitpicking. That's quite a lot and since you suggested that Stowers would be a replacement for Hicks, all of the other attributes and contributions that Hicks offers can't be discounted. You can't cherry-pick just because you don't like the argument. Hicks and Stowers are not a good comparison. 

Unless something catastrophic occurs with player health, Stowers doesn't have a path back to the Major League roster for the Orioles. I like Stowers but he's not better than any of Hays, Mullins, Cowser, Kjerstad, Santander, Hicks or even McKenna. There are just other guys who are ahead of him on the depth chart for this year. I would be shocked if Hicks isn't retained if he finishes strong. Barring other changes to the roster, he's most likely the 5th outfielder going into 2024. 

I like Stowers. He just doesn't do anyting better than any of the above mentioned guys. 

[Yossarian]

6 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

I've seen both Kyle Stowers (25 yo) and DL Hall (24 yo) mentioned in trade discussions and believe it's typically better to rebuild a prospect's perceived value, rather than dealing them while that value is sub optimal. I don't expect Elias to deal either away for this reason, though it's not out of the realm of possibilities.

I've never been high on Stowers, mostly because he strikes out 28% of the time and has a .261 BA over his minor league and brief major league career.  However, while he's been passed in prospect rankings by Cowser and Kjjerstad, a closer look reveals a better player than I once believed.  I roughly see a .240 BA/.320 OBP/.450 SLG/.770'ish OPS guy at the big league level that can play a solid corner outfield and even a decent CF, if needed.  He'll never steal bases, but he's not a plodder either and should be good for 20+ HR's per season.  To me, this says at least a league average OF.  There is value in that.  This is just how I view his talents, yet those with more educated views may feel differently.

He's has a shoulder injury this season that set him back, but he should fully recover soon. 

So, while dealing Stowers makes a lot of sense, I hope Elias gives him time to rebuild his value at AAA before pulling the trigger.

Thoughts?

Is it a given that he is good for 20+ HRs?  There were only about 70 players in the entire league that hit at least 20 last year.   There are a lot of good hitters that are not on that list.   I don't know that we can pencil in Stowers as a 20 HR guy until he shows he can hit in the majors.   To be fair - he hadlsn't got much of a chance to date.

[Matt Bennett]

7 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Do you mean the facts don't support your position so there must be something wrong with them?

30+ more strikeouts per 100 ABs is not nitpicking. That's quite a lot and since you suggested that Stowers would be a replacement for Hicks, all of the other attributes and contributions that Hicks offers can't be discounted. You can't cherry-pick just because you don't like the argument. Hicks and Stowers are not a good comparison. 

Unless something catastrophic occurs with player health, Stowers doesn't have a path back to the Major League roster for the Orioles. I like Stowers but he's not better than any of Hays, Mullins, Cowser, Kjerstad, Santander, Hicks or even McKenna. There are just other guys who are ahead of him on the depth chart for this year. I would be shocked if Hicks isn't retained if he finishes strong. Barring other changes to the roster, he's most likely the 5th outfielder going into 2024. 

I like Stowers. He just doesn't do anyting better than any of the above mentioned guys. 

When I said Stowers could be a direct replacement of Hicks I meant that he can occupy his roster spot and provide the 4th/5th outfielder role Hicks currently occupies, not that they are the same player. I believe you knew that. Value comes in different forms. Strikeouts are outs. I care much more about the number of outs one produces than the type of out produced. I'm sure Westburg will strikeout more than Frazier. I don't care and neither should you. 

I'm unsure what information I cherry-picked. I like Hicks and he has a place on the team. There's the offensive side of things and the defensive side of things. I don't think I project a 100 OPS+, steals on the basepaths, or plus defense from him going forward. This isn't that high of a bar for Stowers to surpass. Based on his AAA success and prospect pedigree, I believe he can do it. If you don't or if he can't, he isn't much use to anybody and can be safely discarded for the next man up. I disagree wholeheartedly with your statement that there is no path for Stowers to get at-bats with the Orioles. Hicks is getting at-bats right now and he is a free agent eligible to sign with any team.

[banks703]

12 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Is it a given that he is good for 20+ HRs?  There were only about 70 players in the entire league that hit at least 20 last year.   There are a lot of good hitters that are not on that list.   I don't know that we can pencil in Stowers as a 20 HR guy until he shows he can hit in the majors.   To be fair - he hadlsn't got much of a chance to date.

I'd love to see Stowers find success. The LH big power potential is there but I just don't see it happening for him in Baltimore. No, he really didn't get much of a chance but as @Sports Guy mentions above, his not being even a top 10 prospect for the O's is less of an indictment on him as a player and more of a symptom of a stacked pipeline. And he just isn't a better option than the guys currently on the ML roster so unless there are multiple moving pieces in the OF by next year, there just isn't a place for Stowers in Baltimore right now. 

@Tony-OH mentioned it very very early in the season - the best thing that the O's can do with/for Kyle Stowers is to move him. 

[banks703]

6 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

When I said Stowers could be a direct replacement of Hicks I meant that he can occupy his roster spot and provide the 4th/5th outfielder role Hicks currently occupies, not that they are the same player. I believe you knew that. Value comes in different forms. Strikeouts are outs. I care much more about the number of outs one produces than the type of out produced. I'm sure Westburg will strikeout more than Frazier. I don't care and neither should you. 

I'm unsure what information I cherry-picked. I like Hicks and he has a place on the team. There's the offensive side of things and the defensive side of things. I don't think I project a 100 OPS+, steals on the basepaths, or plus defense from him going forward. This isn't that high of a bar for Stowers to surpass. Based on his AAA success and prospect pedigree, I believe he can do it. If you don't or if he can't, he isn't much use to anybody and can be safely discarded for the next man up. I disagree wholeheartedly with your statement that there is no path for Stowers to get at-bats with the Orioles. Hicks is getting at-bats right now and he is a free agent eligible to sign with any team.

Right now Hicks, Mullins, Hays, Ant, Cowser and even McKenna are better options to the Orioles than is Kyle Stowers. If Hicks finishes the year strong, I will be shocked if he doesn't return in '24. 

You should absolutely care how outs are made. Situational hitting is something that has been a bugaboo for the O's for quite a while. If you have a guy that is going to strike out 40ish % less of the time, you can feel more confident in moving a runner, hit-and-run plays, etc. etc. 

[TopGunnar]

Stowers has next to no chance of being a regular player on future Orioles teams. And at this point, I just hope Hall can become a decent reliever for us. I’d have no problem trading either 

[Just Regular]

It'll be nice if he gets somewhere else in a few weeks.    He's stronger than Zach Watson, but probably not strong enough to push back into the MLB lineup.

Might become a poster child what 6-year Minor League FA is for.     He's insurance if we keep him, and a trademark of the Raysian GM is to hate releasing any asset that might have a shred of value.

It happens pretty regular with TB, NYY, CLE, LAD - there will be trades of guys on cusp of 40 that aren't good enough for their 40, where they give higher minors guys and get either MLB pieces or lower minors guys.     Couple more years for our IFA pipeline to bubble up and we may get there too if we make wide swaths of players good.

[Matt Bennett]

8 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Right now Hicks, Mullins, Hays, Ant, Cowser and even McKenna are better options to the Orioles than is Kyle Stowers. If Hicks finishes the year strong, I will be shocked if he doesn't return in '24. 

You should absolutely care how outs are made. Situational hitting is something that has been a bugaboo for the O's for quite a while. If you have a guy that is going to strike out 40ish % less of the time, you can feel more confident in moving a runner, hit-and-run plays, etc. etc. 

Why would you be shocked if he doesn't return? He's going to be 34 and he's a free agent. What % of free agents don't move teams? Hicks is an outfielder and has a spot on this team getting regular at-bats. He's a free agent. That spot could open up. Stowers is an outfielder and was a fairly well regarded prospect with AAA success. To suggest there is no path to at-bats for him is ludicrous. The at-bats to be had are right there being taken by a player who is not under team control next year. 

Ryan McKenna has racked up almost 500 plate appearances and is exactly replacement level. I've laid out the case that I don't believe Aaron Hicks is a league average offensive player or a plus defender going forward. If Stowers can't replace this level of production, what makes you think he is attractive to other baseball GM's? 

The Orioles are 10th in OPS overall. They are 4th in OPS with RISP. Where are you getting this information that situational hitting is a bugaboo? You can have your Adam Frazier's of the world. I guess I'll take a ground-out over a strikeout. I'll trade that for a percentage point in OPS.