Elias' 2023 Offseason acquisitions grades

[Ohfan67]

15 minutes ago, Birdland in NC said:

Just the fact that Frazier has been getting the majority of starts at 2B in these games down the stretch that are essentially must-win games, I think that acquisition gets a B at least.  Posters hate on him because they have a crush on Jordan Westberg, but if Westberg was a better MLB player, he'd be getting the starts.  There's no way Hyde or Elias are keeping a better player on the bench for these games.   

Who starts at second has more to do with what hand the starting pitcher uses to throw the ball. Hyde and company are maximizing left-right match ups. 

[forphase1]

18 minutes ago, Birdland in NC said:

Just the fact that Frazier has been getting the majority of starts at 2B in these games down the stretch that are essentially must-win games, I think that acquisition gets a B at least.  Posters hate on him because they have a crush on Jordan Westberg, but if Westberg was a better MLB player, he'd be getting the starts.  There's no way Hyde or Elias are keeping a better player on the bench for these games.   

Better players ARE often kept on the bench, or in the minors, for various reasons, and talent isn't always the determining factor.  Be it an obsession with L/R splits, trust in a 'vet', stats against a certain pitcher, service time control, etc etc, the 'better player' doesn't always start.  We can argue if that's good or bad, but to act like the better player isn't sometimes riding the bench isn't necessarily accurate.  

At the end of the day it isn't so much a crush on Westburg as it is a dislike of Frazier.  He's poor with the glove and below average with the bat (.713 OPS, OPS+ of 98).  His bat has came up HUGE in a few key spots, and that has folks 'crushing' on him, more than his overall numbers and play would really justify.  I get it, he's had some spots that will last for a long time in our memories, and he's certainly contributed to some big wins in a season where we are the best team in the AL.  He gives very 'professional' at bats, that often don't end in good results, but has in some real 'clutch' moments for us this year.  His overall poor body of work is overshadowed by some masterful occasions when he has really came through for us.  

I believe Westburg is the better player, certainly is better on defense, and the bat would likely surpass Frazier too if given enough chances, but even in his SSS (if you consider 188 ABs to be a SSS) he's at .730 OPS and 103 OPS+, higher than Frazier, though not considerably so.  Westburg is at 1.3 WAR (baseball reference.com) in 188 ABs compared to Frazier at 1.8 WAR (same site) in 390 ABs.  It's likely that Westburg is a 2-2.5 WAR player if given the same number of chances that Frazier has been given.

Certainly a fun discussion, and at the end of the day we have the best record in the AL, and that's what's important.  I think that Tony made a point about the whole being greater than the sum of the pieces, and I think that really describes this year.  And, like him or not, Frazier has been one of those pieces.

[btdart20]

33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the Frazier deal worked out extremely well, even though I was against it.  For one thing, it’s added depth.  For another, he’s had a lot of big hits.  And third, it allowed us to be patient with Westburg, so that we now have an extra year of his services at a bargain price.  He came up without too much pressure and I think the whole thing has worked to the Orioles’ advantage.

And fourth (kind of related to your third point), having Frazier allowed us to stagger the rookie adjustment periods WHILE gaining team altitude at lift off.  Gunnar struggled then got it in gear.  Cowser and Ortiz struggled and never got to the point of clicking.  Westburg and SSS Kjerstad have been pretty steady through their initial taste of MLB pitching.

[tntoriole]

I agree with the ratings except I like Frazier’s contributions more than others do and would give it a B.

Overall, Elias gets an A for knowing where the rebuild was going, knowing his budget, not sending top prospects for short term gain..

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

At the end of the day it isn't so much a crush on Westburg as it is a dislike of Frazier.  He's poor with the glove and below average with the bat (.713 OPS, OPS+ of 98).  His bat has came up HUGE in a few key spots, and that has folks 'crushing' on him, more than his overall numbers and play would really justify.  

Two things:

1.  Frazier might be slightly below average offensively for all players, but he’s slightly above (101 sOPS+) for a 2B.

2.  Rather than anecdotally recalling the impact of a few big hits from Frazier, we can measure the overall impact of his “clutchness.”  He has a Win Probability Added of 1.5, 5th best on the team.  So yeah, he’s clutchness has has real value that makes up for the times when he hasn’t hit well.   (Westburg, by the way, is second worst on the team in WPA at -0.4.)

For me, the arguments against Frazier are (1) that his defense hasn’t been good, and/or (2) that Westburg, given equivalent playing time, would have been the more valuable overall player.  But Frazier offense has been decent overall and very timely, so I wouldn’t make the “below average offensively” argument.  

And to repeat a point I made in a prior post, let’s assume we win the AL East.  At that point, the idea that we might have won another game or two with Westburg here all season becomes moot and irrelevant. And the point that we have Westburg for another six years after this one instead of five, the first three of which are at pre-Arb prices, becomes an advantage gained by the Frazier acquisition.  Now if we lose the division title by a game or two, that’s a different discussion. 
 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, SteveA said:

I know a lot of people on here like to ignore LH/RH aspects completely, they just like one player more than another and think therefore he should always be in the lineup.    Or they were mystified that DL Hall was taken out last night when a string or RH batters was coming due, because he was "pitching well".   

But the fact is, there IS a platoon advantage that exists statistically.   LH/RH balance DOES matter.   Perhaps Elias/Hyde overdo it at times, but a lot of people act like it doesn't exist at all.

Just came across this tidbit from a Fangraphs commenter:

The Orioles don’t rank #1 in the majors in many things, but they rank #1 at the plate in terms in % of plate appearances with the platoon advantage. They also rank #1 on the mound in % of batters faced with the platoon advantage.

Between batting and hitting, the Os have the platoon advantage 61% of the time. Most teams (including most playoff teams) are in the 45-50% range.

[TonySoprano]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

January 3, 2023
Purchased Ryan O'Hearn from the Kansas City Royals: The 1B/OF/DH guy that worked out and worked out in a huge way. Has become a starter and well worth the $1.4 million he made this year. Grade: A+

 

[Yossarian]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

Better players ARE often kept on the bench, or in the minors, for various reasons, and talent isn't always the determining factor.  Be it an obsession with L/R splits, trust in a 'vet', stats against a certain pitcher, service time control, etc etc, the 'better player' doesn't always start.  We can argue if that's good or bad, but to act like the better player isn't sometimes riding the bench isn't necessarily accurate.  

At the end of the day it isn't so much a crush on Westburg as it is a dislike of Frazier.  He's poor with the glove and below average with the bat (.713 OPS, OPS+ of 98).  His bat has came up HUGE in a few key spots, and that has folks 'crushing' on him, more than his overall numbers and play would really justify.  I get it, he's had some spots that will last for a long time in our memories, and he's certainly contributed to some big wins in a season where we are the best team in the AL.  He gives very 'professional' at bats, that often don't end in good results, but has in some real 'clutch' moments for us this year.  His overall poor body of work is overshadowed by some masterful occasions when he has really came through for us.  

I believe Westburg is the better player, certainly is better on defense, and the bat would likely surpass Frazier too if given enough chances, but even in his SSS (if you consider 188 ABs to be a SSS) he's at .730 OPS and 103 OPS+, higher than Frazier, though not considerably so.  Westburg is at 1.3 WAR (baseball reference.com) in 188 ABs compared to Frazier at 1.8 WAR (same site) in 390 ABs.  It's likely that Westburg is a 2-2.5 WAR player if given the same number of chances that Frazier has been given.

Certainly a fun discussion, and at the end of the day we have the best record in the AL, and that's what's important.  I think that Tony made a point about the whole being greater than the sum of the pieces, and I think that really describes this year.  And, like him or not, Frazier has been one of those pieces.

These predictive numbers for Westburg assume he maintains this level against right-handed pit hing.

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Lol. No, I basically gave each grade about 10 second or less of thought!  

In that case shouldn't you have used a 1-10 score instead of a letter grade? The number would correspond to the number of seconds.....

 

[forphase1]

13 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

These predictive numbers for Westburg assume he maintains this level against right-handed pit hing.

Sure, which may or may not have happened.  We will never know of course, as even if he ends up hitting well next year or whatever, no guarantees he could have done it this year.  But that's part of both the fun and annoyance of this stuff, we will never know for what would have/wouldn't have happened. 

[Brooks The Great]

Elias' offseason acquisitions are the worst regular hitter in the lineup and the worst pitcher in the starting rotation. 

His trade deadline acquisitions were both net negatives. 

No one is perfect, but Elias has been too conservative this season with an extremely low payroll and the best farm system in baseball to leverage.

[Yossarian]

Not related to Elias acquisitions, but somewhat related and I didn't have a better place to discuss:

How frustrating would it be to have Kyle Schwarber on your team?

https://www.mlb.com/news/kyle-schwarber-has-odd-2023-stat-line?partnerID=web_article-share

 

It would drive me nuts to sit through the strikeouts, but the production is undeniable.   He is the opposite of today's Orioles player - but he sure does walk a lot.   This is an interesting case study.   And how is he only 30 years old?

 

Another observation:  

The Dodgers have done well with getting Betts, Freeman, and JD Martinez.  The $/WAR on those three this year are: $3.14M, $4.29M, and $5.56M, respectively.  Did Elias do any better as far as value in $/WAR?

 

[MarCakes21]

21 hours ago, Ripken said:

You throw a bunch of guys out there and hope someone has success.  ROH is certainly doing that.  A great addition.  I'm down on Gibson, though I know he's done what he was signed for.  I really, really wanted Bassitt instead and he's been a lot better.  Oh, well.  The team is rolling so ME gets an A from me and that goes to A+ if they win the division.

I wanted Bassitt and Eovaldi.  Check the notes!  Oh well, this team has excellent chemistry as is.

[webbrick2010]

The one that bothered me the most was the Givens signing

He was left off the Mets playoff roster.

I think he is probably the only GM that would have offered him a guranteed $5 million, and don't they do pre-sigining physicals where they could have seen that he had left his body go?

[Go_Os]

On 9/20/2023 at 10:15 AM, Otter said:

Great compilation and hard to argue with any of the grades.  The only one I'd change is the C for Frazier to a D.  Frazier has been very clutch at times, but I still feel we would have gotten more value out of a full year of Westburg and/or Ortiz at a fraction of the cost.

I actually would give the Frazier signing a B.  He performed better than expected in my opinion, and I think most didn't like the signing mainly because of blocking Westburg and Ortiz and never got over it.