Steamers 2024 ERA projection..top 25

[Sports Guy]

GRod but no Bradish.

[ChosenOne21]

Well, they didn't predict him to do what he did last year either.

I'd say it's at least 50% likely Kyle Bradish is top 25 in ERA next year. His FIP was 3.27 last year. Even if he's half a run above that he's top 25 on that list.

[Sports Guy]

Also some WAR projections…Adley 2 and Gunnar 11.

[24fps]

 A little optimistic on Adley maybe, but good to see nonetheless.

[waroriole]

Grayson too low. No Bradish. List has faults. 

[Pickles]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Also some WAR projections…Adley 2 and Gunnar 11.

Looks like even hitting as he did last year, Adley is one of the most valuable players in the game.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

GRod but no Bradish.

It's not surprising to me Grayson is projected above Bradish.  It is a little surprising to me that Bradish isn't in the top 25.

However, this is the weakness of these computer models.  They can't recognize real developmental breakthroughs as quickly as the human eye can.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Grayson too low. No Bradish. List has faults. 

A guy with a 4.35 ERA in 122 career innings is ranked 11th overall by a projection system and you still manage to sound slighted on his behalf.

It's a projection system,  I didn't think he'd be that high.  It must have liked his underlying data.

 

[waroriole]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A guy with a 4.35 ERA in 122 career innings is ranked 11th overall by a projection system and you still manage to sound slighted on his behalf.

It's a projection system,  I didn't think he'd be that high.  It must have liked his underlying data.

 

Calm down. It’s mostly said in jest. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Calm down. It’s mostly said in jest. 

How was that not calm?

[ShoelesJoe]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Also some WAR projections…Adley 2 and Gunnar 11.

They're projecting Gunnar to be worse in 2024 than he was in 2023? I'll take the over on that one. 

[baltfan]

26 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

They're projecting Gunnar to be worse in 2024 than he was in 2023? I'll take the over on that one. 

Sophomore slumps are common even in ROYs.  But Cal proves it doesn’t always happen 

[ShoelesJoe]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

Sophomore slumps are common even in ROYs.  But Cal proves it doesn’t always happen 

The problem with that theory wrt Henderson is that he started off 2023 cold as ice, but in the last 100 games of the season he was a stud -- .276 / .322 / .534 from June 1st on. If he'd started hot and then struggled toward the end of 2023 I can see the logic of projecting a sophomore slump. But the kid made his adjustments, and it is reasonable to assume that his 2024 production will be in line with how he finished 2023 rather than how he started it. 

Edited November 6, 2023 by ShoelesJoe

[baltfan]

4 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

The problem with that theory wrt Henderson is that he started off 2023 cold as ice, but in the last 100 games of the season he was a stud -- .276 / .322 / .534 from June 1st on. If he'd started hot and then struggled toward the end of 2023 I can see the logic of projecting a sophomore slump. But the kid made his adjustments, and it is reasonable to assume that his 2024 production will be in line with how he finished 2023 rather than how he started it. 

Julio Rodriguez literally did the same exact thing.  His second year his OPS+ went from 147 to 128. It’s a continuing set of adjustments. 

[Roll Tide]

8 hours ago, waroriole said:

Grayson too low. No Bradish. List has faults. 

Since he came up as a player to possibly get Sonny Gray’s last 300 innings over 2 seasons era has been under 3.00. And he didn’t make it either.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Roll Tide