2024 ZiPS reveals

[Just Regular]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-tampa-bay-rays/

Tampa became the first AL Team today.     Bobby Valentine as Wander Franco's #1 comp taught me that he I guess was a near Jackson Holliday elite high school infield draft pick back in the day.

[btdart20]

On 11/17/2023 at 3:35 PM, Just Regular said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-tampa-bay-rays/

Tampa became the first AL Team today.     Bobby Valentine as Wander Franco's #1 comp taught me that he I guess was a near Jackson Holliday elite high school infield draft pick back in the day.

The comp made me laugh.  Bobby Valentine slashed a career .260/.315/.326 over a grand total of 1909 PAs.

I'd take Wander's first season as a Jackson comp!  Holliday probably has more upside OBP-wise.  At least if the MiLB BB% is to be believed for both....

[Just Regular]

Braves today, and I thought it was cool in the write-up ZiPS gives Acuna a shot at a 600 HR/600 SB career.

Willie ended up at 339 SB, Bonds 514.    Acuna is at 161 HR/180 SB, and he turns 26 next week.

 

 

[Just Regular]

Mike Trout's 80th percentile only being 4 wins is just sad.

We have all 6 of our Angels games in the first 4 weeks to see what's left in the tank, should he still be there.

A commenter had the observation over Age 30 plus three consecutive failures to qualify for batting title - except WW2, there isn't really anyone in history who has returned to even typical All-Star form, never mind what Trout has been.

It's hard to wrap my head around the idea that a strong Austin Hays season might be all he has left to give the game.

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Mike Trout's 80th percentile only being 4 wins is just sad.

We have all 6 of our Angels games in the first 4 weeks to see what's left in the tank, should he still be there.

A commenter had the observation over Age 30 plus three consecutive failures to qualify for batting title - except WW2, there isn't really anyone in history who has returned to even typical All-Star form, never mind what Trout has been.

It's hard to wrap my head around the idea that a strong Austin Hays season might be all he has left to give the game.

Looks like it’s a playing time thing.  They only projecting 382 PA for him.  His 80th percentile OPS+ is 161, which is still excellent.  

[Frobby]

I am more than a little chaffed that Szymborski has now revealed the ZiPS projections for 29 of the 30 teams, and still hasn’t released the damned White Sox.  I’m really interested to see what ZiPS’ median projection is for Cease, and also the 80th and 20th percentile projections.  I’m expecting a pretty wide range relative to most pitchers.  

[Just Regular]

I saw him comment earlier he's put it in the hands of a random number generator.

Clay Davenport self-published his about a week ago - last place Orioles, though it is close and the projection is giving far too many starts to AAA pitchers who will not get used except as emergency fill-ins in real life.   20 starts for Bruce Zimmermann and Kyle Brnovich.....I think not!!

https://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

 

[btdart20]

6 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I saw him comment earlier he's put it in the hands of a random number generator.

Clay Davenport self-published his about a week ago - last place Orioles, though it is close and the projection is giving far too many starts to AAA pitchers who will not get used except as emergency fill-ins in real life.   20 starts for Bruce Zimmermann and Kyle Brnovich.....I think not!!

https://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

 

20th in runs scored?  Lolz…

 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

20th in runs scored?  Lolz…

 

 That's what happens when you let Frazier walk.

[Frobby]

On 1/21/2024 at 9:35 AM, Just Regular said:

I saw him comment earlier he's put it in the hands of a random number generator.

Clay Davenport self-published his about a week ago - last place Orioles, though it is close and the projection is giving far too many starts to AAA pitchers who will not get used except as emergency fill-ins in real life.   20 starts for Bruce Zimmermann and Kyle Brnovich.....I think not!!

https://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

 

His projections are extremely pitcher-friendly.  Last year teams averaged 748 runs apiece. Davenport has only 3 of 30 teams reaching that.  

[Frobby]

ZiPS finally out for the White Sox.  The median projection for Cease is 166 innings at a 3.90 ERA.  80th percentile projection is 3.32, 20th is 4.81.   IMO, we have pegged him correctly as a likely no. 3 starter with no. 1 potential but also some significant downside.  

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

His projections are extremely pitcher-friendly.  Last year teams averaged 748 runs apiece. Davenport has only 3 of 30 teams reaching that.  

I believe they anchor on a certain era when offense was lower.    Its a good point though, and they probably have more use for comparing the players and teams.

Assuming Clay doesn't have a super secret memo about the league deadening the ball for 2024...

[Just Regular]

BP's PECOTAs are up this morning - Orioles 86.6 wins and 55% playoff odds, lagging the Yankees by 8 games.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

Clay Davenport's have the Orioles 5 games off the division lead, both his and PECOTA have Rays and Orioles almost dead even.

https://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

Nothing looks published yet, but Fangraphs writers have said their forecasts are coming this week.    ZiPS is I believe usually a bit friendlier to the Orioles than these other forecasters.