Mariners Trade (proposed)

[MarCakes21]

35 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

In a 1 for 1, I doubt it.  But Soto + an FV 55 for Gilbert or Kirby?

 

BTW - I stink at these trade proposal games! 

Probably right.  Soto gets you about 20-30mil in current excess value.  Gilbert and Kirby could get about 15mil excess per year for 5 more years.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, MarCakes21 said:

This is where I am.

I'd prefer Gilbert/Kirby, I just think the ask would be more like Santander+Kjerstad+Norby, maybe more.  Which I think I'd still be okay with.

It would be more like Holliday + Santander + a couple more pieces.  Young, controllable, TOR starters are very expensive.  Would you trade Bradish for Santander, Kjerstad and Norby?

[MarCakes21]

3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

It would be more like Holliday + Santander + a couple more pieces.  Young, controllable, TOR starters are very expensive.  Would you trade Bradish for Santander, Kjerstad and Norby?

Not in the Orioles situation with the readily available hitting assets in the minors, but I see what you're saying.  I also don't think it's far off to trade Santander/Kjerstad/Norby for Bradish.  12 years of 1st division/potential all star plus one current 3-5 hitter.

[ChosenOne21]

4 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

I would do this for Miller.

You'd probably have to add someone like Povich/Fabian to that deal before the Mariners would consider it

[ChosenOne21]

53 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Not in the Orioles situation with the readily available hitting assets in the minors, but I see what you're saying.  I also don't think it's far off to trade Santander/Kjerstad/Norby for Bradish.  12 years of 1st division/potential all star plus one current 3-5 hitter.

That deal is massively lopsided. That's about half of what you'd have to trade for a pitcher with Bradish's level of skill with that many years of team control

[HakunaSakata]

What I struggle with is wrapping my head around is why the Mariners would trade any of their young pitching depth for Santander, Mountcastle, or Hays when they can just sign short term  free agents (1-2 year deals) who will probably post similar stats. Why trade for Mountcastle when you can sign Joc Pederson? Why trade for Hays when you can sign Lourdes Gurriel? Why trade for Santander when you can take a chance onbounce back candidates like Adam Duvall or Hunter Renfroe who will likely provide the same amount of power? If I was the Mariner's GM the only veteran on the Orioles roster I'd be interested in is Mullins, who I still believe is our most valuable non-prospect trade piece.

I don't see us trading Mullins (although I think we should consider it) so the only potential I see to work something out with the Mariners is if they're  willing to make a high level  prospect for prospect swap, but it would have to be someone who they viewed as MLB ready who they can pencil in as a starter in 2024. After looking at their roster / depth chart I would think players like Westburg, Cowser, Kjerstad would have some appeal because their biggest needs seem to be at OF, 2B, and DH (i.e., just offensive in general). But if I'm the Mariners, as someone else suggested if someone like Juan Soto is available he would be my number one priority because he's head and shoulders above just about ever other FA or realistic trade candidate, except for Ohtani.

As for trade value, I think Kirby is a pipe dream, unless we want to trade Henderson (which we don't) so I'd cross him off the list. 

For Gilbert, I think it would take something like Cowser, Westburg and Norby to get their attention. Or if they prefer a veteran, Mullins, Cowser (or Westburg), and Norby. 

For Miller or Woo, I think it would take Mullins or one of Westburg or Cowser.

 

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

Not in the Orioles situation with the readily available hitting assets in the minors, but I see what you're saying.  I also don't think it's far off to trade Santander/Kjerstad/Norby for Bradish.  12 years of 1st division/potential all star plus one current 3-5 hitter.

That trade is ridiculously lopsided. 

[Sanity Check]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

What I struggle with is wrapping my head around is why the Mariners would trade any of their young pitching depth for Santander, Mountcastle, or Hays when they can just sign short term  free agents (1-2 year deals) who will probably post similar stats. Why trade for Mountcastle when you can sign Joc Pederson? Why trade for Hays when you can sign Lourdes Gurriel? Why trade for Santander when you can take a chance onbounce back candidates like Adam Duvall or Hunter Renfroe who will likely provide the same amount of power? If I was the Mariner's GM the only veteran on the Orioles roster I'd be interested in is Mullins, who I still believe is our most valuable non-prospect trade piece.

I don't see us trading Mullins (although I think we should consider it) so the only potential I see to work something out with the Mariners is if they're  willing to make a high level  prospect for prospect swap, but it would have to be someone who they viewed as MLB ready who they can pencil in as a starter in 2024. After looking at their roster / depth chart I would think players like Westburg, Cowser, Kjerstad would have some appeal because their biggest needs seem to be at OF, 2B, and DH (i.e., just offensive in general). But if I'm the Mariners, as someone else suggested if someone like Juan Soto is available he would be my number one priority because he's head and shoulders above just about ever other FA or realistic trade candidate, except for Ohtani.

As for trade value, I think Kirby is a pipe dream, unless we want to trade Henderson (which we don't) so I'd cross him off the list. 

For Gilbert, I think it would take something like Cowser, Westburg and Norby to get their attention. Or if they prefer a veteran, Mullins, Cowser (or Westburg), and Norby. 

For Miller or Woo, I think it would take Mullins or one of Westburg or Cowser.

 

I agree with the statement in orange above, and I would pull the trigger on that.

[HakunaSakata]

3 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

For sure Soto is scarier.  But would they have to give up Gilbert or Kirby for one year of Soto?

Absolutely not. Gilbert and Kirby are considerably more valuable than Soto when you factor everything else in. I think they could absolutely land him for Miller or Woo plus a little more. If the Padres want pitching I think the Mariners are in an excellent position to make at run at Soto. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

Absolutely not. Gilbert and Kirby are considerably more valuable than Soto when you factor everything else in. I think they could absolutely land him for Miller or Woo plus a little more. If the Padres want pitching I think the Mariners are in an excellent position to make at run at Soto. 

Do the Mainers want to add 33M to the payroll?   

[HakunaSakata]

55 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Do the Mainers want to add 33M to the payroll?   

I wasn’t suggesting that the Mariners  sign (or trade for) three players. I was just providing FA player comps for our vets who I think can probably be had for affordable one year contracts  (with the exception of maybe Gurriel).
 

Also, the Mariners have been publicly linked to Ohtani at times so they can’t be too averse to adding payroll. If I was the Mariners GM and had some financial flexibility I’d push hard for Soto and India trades. I think those two players are much better fits than anyone we can offer and instantly solve their offensive problems. And they probably only have to give up one of Woo or Miller to make it happen.

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I wasn’t suggesting that the Mariners  sign (or trade for) three players. I was just providing FA player comps for our vets who I think can probably be had for affordable one year contracts  (with the exception of maybe Gurriel).
 

Also, the Mariners have been publicly linked to Ohtani at times so they can’t be too averse to adding payroll. If I was the Mariners GM and had some financial flexibility I’d push hard for Soto and India trades. I think those two players are much better fits than anyone we can offer and instantly solve their offensive problems. And they probably only have to give up one of Woo or Miller to make it happen.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/seattle-mariners

[HakunaSakata]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/seattle-mariners

I fell like we're getting off topic here. My point is, why would the Mariners sacrifice their future and trade a young pitcher for a Santander type when they can just sign someone like Duvall or Renfroe to a one year deal for probably less than Santander will make this season? Whether the Mariners are or aren't willing to spend money is a bit irrelevant to the conversation and the irony is that it might actually be fiscally more responsible to sign the FA in this case. 

[Rbiggs2525]

37 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I fell like we're getting off topic here. My point is, why would the Mariners sacrifice their future and trade a young pitcher for a Santander type when they can just sign someone like Duvall or Renfroe to a one year deal for probably less than Santander will make this season? Whether the Mariners are or aren't willing to spend money is a bit irrelevant to the conversation and the irony is that it might actually be fiscally more responsible to sign the FA in this case. 

Duvall and Renfroe are reaching that age of over the hill. Also I believe both have major injury concerns. I get what you are saying but if someone is trading for Santander I imagine they plan on locking him up. 

[HakunaSakata]

15 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Duvall and Renfroe are reaching that age of over the hill. Also I believe both have major injury concerns. I get what you are saying but if someone is trading for Santander I imagine they plan on locking him up. 

 Renfroe's only two years older than Santander (29 vs 31) and has managed to get close to 500 ABs the last three seasons. I don't think he's that much of an injury risk and he's basically the same player. I'm also not sure too many teams would be interested in locking up a soon to 30 year old who's a mediocre fielder and who barely cracks .300 OBP each season. Duvall, I'll give you , is definitely more of an injury risk.