Mariners Trade (proposed)

[HakunaSakata]

18 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Wonder what they'd want for Castillo?

EDIT:  Wow...didn't realize how much money he was owed over the next 4 years!  

 

[health55]

12 hours ago, clapdiddy said:

Wonder what they'd want for Castillo?

EDIT:  Wow...didn't realize how much money he was owed over the next 4 years!  

Luis Castillo is guaranteed $91 million over the next four seasons with a 2028 vesting option for another $25 million. The righthander has a full no-trade clause through 2025 with a $1 million assignment bonus thereafter.

Castillo was born the same month as current free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The projected contract for Snell ranges from five years, $122 million at The Athletic to seven years, $200 million at MLB Trade Rumors. Montgomery's projected contract ranges from five years, $127 million at The Athletic to six years, $150 million at MLB Trade Rumors.

Early offseason indications are that the projected free contracts have been on the conservative side (although Aaron Nola, who is six months younger than Castillo, came in near projections at seven years, $172 million).

Steamer projects 2024 WAR of 3.4 for Castillo, 3.3 for Snell and 3.2 for Montgomery (and 4.2 for Nola):

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=steamer

If the Mariners are operating as if they're financially strapped, the M's could offload Castillo's contract (with his consent) for low-cost pre-arb bat. The savings could be flipped in pursuit of a replacement starter because free agent pitchers reportedly find Seattle more attractive than free agent hitters.

Big spenders that lose out on Snell, Montgomery and Shota Imanaga could turn to Castillo although Seattle's demands would be high in light of the market for starting pitching.

[health55]

On 12/25/2023 at 9:26 PM, health55 said:

Seattle is highly unlikely to trade George Kirby or Logan Gilbert for anything less than an equally impactful bat with similar team control.

A trade of Jordan Westburg for Bryce Miller would be interesting because they were childhood friends and high school teammates. However, the Mariners are unlikely to leave a hole in their starting rotation without filling a void in the outfield.

Seattle might balk at one year of Anthony Santander at a projected $12.7 million but whom would the Orioles want for two years of Austin Riley at a projected 2024 salarly of $6.1 million? Would Emerson Hancock and a prospect outside Seattle's top 10 be enough?

two years of Austin Hays at a projected 2024 salarly of $6.1 million?

[Sports Guy]

If Castillo is the one who is dealt, the Os will be out on that because of his contract.  My guess is he would end up with the Giants although it would be funny to see him go back to Cinci.

The issue with the Giants is that they are pitching heavy.  Again, a 3 team trade where we send Cowser to the Ms and someone like Harrison comes to us could work.  
 

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Sports Guy

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, health55 said:

Luis Castillo is guaranteed $91 million over the next four seasons with a 2028 vesting option for another $25 million. The righthander has a full no-trade clause through 2025 with a $1 million assignment bonus thereafter.

Castillo was born the same month as current free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The projected contract for Snell ranges from five years, $122 million at The Athletic to seven years, $200 million at MLB Trade Rumors. Montgomery's projected contract ranges from five years, $127 million at The Athletic to six years, $150 million at MLB Trade Rumors.

Early offseason indications are that the projected free contracts have been on the conservative side (although Aaron Nola, who is six months younger than Castillo, came in near projections at seven years, $172 million).

Steamer projects 2024 WAR of 3.4 for Castillo, 3.3 for Snell and 3.2 for Montgomery (and 4.2 for Nola):

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=steamer

If the Mariners are operating as if they're financially strapped, the M's could offload Castillo's contract (with his consent) for low-cost pre-arb bat. The savings could be flipped in pursuit of a replacement starter because free agent pitchers reportedly find Seattle more attractive than free agent hitters.

Big spenders that lose out on Snell, Montgomery and Shota Imanaga could turn to Castillo although Seattle's demands would be high in light of the market for starting pitching.

Good post.  The prospect cost should be cheaper, but the big question IMO is if the SigBot is ok with a 4-year $23m-ish/year on a TOR arm?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Good post.  The prospect cost should be cheaper, but the big question IMO is if the SigBot is ok with a 4-year $23m-ish/year on a TOR arm?

Prospect cost cheaper than what? He will cost a ton.

[health55]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Prospect cost cheaper than what? He will cost a ton.

Seattle is unlikely to trade Luis Castillo for anything less than an equally impactful MLB bat.

The Mariners hope to improve on this year's team wRC+ of 107, which ranked sixth in the American League, one slot ahead of the 105 wRC+ posted by the Orioles. This offseason Seattle has shed the 2023 wRC+ of Jarred Kelenic (108), Teoscar Hernandez (105) and Eugenio Suarez (102), plus part-timers Tom Murphy (140) and Mike Ford (123). The Mariners have added Mitch Garver (138) and Luis Urias (83).

Seattle still has work to do but the Mariners' raw hitting numbers will always suffer from playing at T-Mobile Park and in the AL West.

 

[btdart20]

56 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Prospect cost cheaper than what? He will cost a ton.

Than for Gilbert or Kirby.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Than for Gilbert or Kirby.

Probably for Kirby but I doubt it for Gilbert. Castillo is better than Gilbert.

But chances are if they “have to” trade a starter, it won’t be either of those guys anyway.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Probably for Kirby but I doubt it for Gilbert. Castillo is better than Gilbert.

But chances are if they “have to” trade a starter, it won’t be either of those guys anyway.

Yep.  If they 'have to' trade Castilo it lowers the asking price too.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Yep.  If they 'have to' trade Castilo it lowers the asking price too.

I don’t think they have to in terms of money though..I think the have to is that is the way to upgrade the offense because their just isn’t much out there in the FA market.

[sportsfan8703]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If Castillo is the one who is dealt, the Os will be out on that because of his contract.  My guess is he would end up with the Giants although it would be funny to see him go back to Cinci.

The issue with the Giants is that they are pitching heavy.  Again, a 3 team trade where we send Cowser to the Ms and someone like Harrison comes to us could work.  
 

 

Yup, there’s no way we’re paying that kind of money. Maybe once Rubenstein gets in here and really wants to chase a ring. 

[Just Regular]

The Mariners pitchers don't cry out 6-man rotation like the Dodgers pitchers, but I suppose it is possible they could try that this fall if Robbie Ray makes it back.     Woo and Miller were both I believe workload monitored kind of guys in 2023.

Woo's Minors are interesting to look at as a comp in case Baumeister or any future Oriole climbs the ladder fast:

3 complex, 6 low-A, 7 high-A, 5 Arizona and 9 AA starts, then the Majors.

He has not yet averaged 5 innings/game at any pro stop, even with the various small sample size opportunities.