Hall vs one year deals

[wildbillhiccup]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He should be the no brainer 5th starters as of today.

In a perfect world, yes, but I still think he has a lot to prove. I'm not saying it's impossible for him to do that in Spring Training, but it's probably not the likeliest outcome. 

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He should be the no brainer 5th starters as of today.

It’s not a no brainer, for those who actually have a brain.  But he’ll certainly get a shot this spring if we don’t pick up another starter.  

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s not a no brainer, for those who actually have a brain.  But he’ll certainly get a shot this spring if we don’t pick up another starter.  

I just don’t see how it’s not Wells if they don’t make another addition based on his 1st half the last 2 seasons. I think Wells is the no brainer 

[Greg Pappas]

11 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I just don’t see how it’s not Wells if they don’t make another addition based on his 1st half the last 2 seasons. I think Wells is the no brainer 

That crossed my mind as well, but it's my hope that Wells helps fortify our pen, especially after the loss of Bautista.  Wells may be better served as well, throwing less innings. 

[Sports Guy]

42 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

What makes you feel this way?  What has Hall done in six seasons that has you believing it's silly to consider anyone else?

And to be clear, as I said earlier, I wouldn't be shocked if the O's wanted that from him, but it would be a surprise to me.  Especially if it worked on well.  If we don't add a starter, then I'd prefer Cole Irvin get it, as he's done it and has no issue throwing a lot of innings.  Less upside but less risk.

Because he has real upside.  The 5th starter isn’t preventing this team from doing anything…so, you experiment with him to start the year and see if he becomes something. 
 

This team needs a legit third option in the playoffs and pretending like that pitcher will both be there in July and we will actually pull the trigger on the deal is pretty foolish.  It’s going to have to come from within and he represents the best  chance.  If it doesn’t work out, you can go to Wells or Irvin and you will be fine.

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I just don’t see how it’s not Wells if they don’t make another addition based on his 1st half the last 2 seasons. I think Wells is the no brainer 

We know what Wells’ ceiling is and it’s not a guy that helps in October unless it’s in the pen..maybe.

Thats not what this team needs for 2024.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We know what Wells’ ceiling is and it’s not a guy that helps in October unless it’s in the pen..maybe.

Thats not what this team needs for 2024.

We do not know what Wells’ ceiling is.  We only know what he’s done thus far.  Have you noticed that Hall has never gotten through a season fully healthy?  He’s never thrown more than 94 innings in a year.  Wells has exceeded that three times.  So why are we worried about Wells’ stamina more than Hall’s?  They’re both risks.  

[connja]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

We know what Wells’ ceiling is and it’s not a guy that helps in October unless it’s in the pen..maybe.

Thats not what this team needs for 2024.

Disagree.  Will take improvement but really only from a perspective of longevity.  If he can give us 150 innings this year of what he did in the first 100 last year, that will be a very solid back end starter.

[Sports Guy]

48 minutes ago, connja said:

Disagree.  Will take improvement but really only from a perspective of longevity.  If he can give us 150 innings this year of what he did in the first 100 last year, that will be a very solid back end starter.

There is nothing in his history that suggests he can. 

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is nothing in his history that suggests he can. 

Wells or Hall?   

[connja]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is nothing in his history that suggests he can. 

He's pitched more innings and demonstrated improvement every season.  Just needs to continue the trend.

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He should be the no brainer 5th starters as of today.

You have the no brain part right, but that's anyone who still thinks DL Hall should start!

It's never been about stuff with Hall, it's about the amount of pitches it takes him to get outs, his health, and the fact he's 25 years old and has never pitched more than 94.1 innings in any professional season. 

HE IS A RELEIVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

I do find it a little ironic that you tend to dismiss Wells over him not be able to get through a season as a starter (which I agree with) but you think it's a "no-brainer" that a 25-year old guy who has never thrown more than 94.1 innings (and he did that in 2018 in Low-A ball) should be the 5th starter.

No offense, but that makes zero sense. Not to mention you degrade the bullpen by taking a left-handed impact reliever out of the mix.

[CaptainRedbeard]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You have the no brain part right, but that's anyone who still thinks DL Hall should start!

It's never been stuff with Hall, it's about the amount of pitches it takes him to get outs, his health, and the fact he's 25 years old and has never pitched more than 94.1 innings in any professional season. 

HE IS A RELEIVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

I do find it a little ironic that you tend to dismiss Wells over him not be able to get through a season as a starter (which I agree with) but you think it's a "no-brainer" that a 25-year old guy who has never thrown more than 94.1 innings (and he did that in 2018 in Low-A ball) should be the 5th starter.

No offense, but that makes zero sense. Not to mention you degrade the bullpen by taking a left-handed impact reliever out o the mix.

Hall is very likely a reliever. I think the odds of him being a starter long term are less than 20%, for all the reasons you said - never held up as a starter over a full season, issues throwing strikes as a starter, etc.

But Hall showed dramatically better command as a RP last year after he did his midseason stint at the pitching lab to fix his mechanics and get his velo back.  It was more than you would expect for the usual SP-to-RP conversion.  He’ll of course give some back by returning to the rotation, but I still think his dominance at the end of the season showed his greatest upside is a starter in the Blake Snell mold: too many pitches, not a lot of innings, but stuff is good enough that he’s well above average at run prevention. You don’t want to build a whole rotation out of guys like that but having one is very valuable, even more so than a dominant RP. 

If the Orioles were willing to add to the rotation with better candidates it wouldn’t even be a question. A team like the Dodgers or Yankees would have stuck Hall in the pen and never looked back. But the Orioles are not that team, and if they don’t add a SP, it makes to see if Hall hits that ~20% upside chance in the first part of the season. They have good lefties in the pen and they presumably would then have some budget ticketed for a SP to add another late inning free agent RP, ideally Stephenson or Hicks if reasonable but Brasier, Robertson or Neris if needing to be cheaper. 

If Hall doesn’t work out as a starter or breaks down then you move him back to the pen. Then maybe you give Wells another shot, plus Irvin as a safety blanket, and by that time maybe McDermott or Povich are ready (plus of course we’ll have the trading deadline, and “Cease Trade Rumors Part III”).

I do agree what Sports Guy is discounting is that you can say all the same things about Wells. I just think the potential reward is much greater with Hall, and the risk is about the same - taking a good RP out of the pen. I don’t think you go into Spring Training for sure thinking it should be Hall, with Hall and Wells’ injuries/mechanical breakdowns last year you need to see how they look in camp, but Hall should have the inside track. 

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You have the no brain part right, but that's anyone who still thinks DL Hall should start!

It's never been about stuff with Hall, it's about the amount of pitches it takes him to get outs, his health, and the fact he's 25 years old and has never pitched more than 94.1 innings in any professional season. 

HE IS A RELEIVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

I do find it a little ironic that you tend to dismiss Wells over him not be able to get through a season as a starter (which I agree with) but you think it's a "no-brainer" that a 25-year old guy who has never thrown more than 94.1 innings (and he did that in 2018 in Low-A ball) should be the 5th starter.

No offense, but that makes zero sense. Not to mention you degrade the bullpen by taking a left-handed impact reliever out of the mix.

It makes zero sense if you aren’t paying attention to what I’m saying.

Hall has his own issues, which have been clearly discussed. What Hall can be that Wells is a TOR starter. Hall has an upside that Wells can’t approach. The Os don’t need a guy to “get you by”. They need a legit 3rd guy in the playoffs. There is no chance Wells or Irvin is that guy but there is at least some chance Hall is.

Thats why he’s a no brainer to at least start the year. It doesn’t mean you keep Up with the experiment for too long. It just means that his upside should buy him the chance to get starts and see what he can do. 
 

All of his past issues mean nothing to me at this time. Other things are just more important. 5th starters in MLb struggle to pitch 5 innings. They struggle to be good. The Os aren’t going to lose anything by trying him. If it’s not working out, you just move him to the pen. 

There is very little downside to this.  As I have said ad naseum, he is likely a reliever. I don’t disagree with that. I said that 4 years ago but there is upside there to be more and Elias sees that too.

This is more about knowing exactly what Wells and Irvin are and still not really knowing what Hall definitely is. You may say that you know what he definitely is but I dont agree with that thought process. Between injuries and other issues, he hasn’t been in the rhythm of a starter for a while. I would like to see him start the season in that role And just see what happens.

[RZNJ]

Hall can provide some dominance in the bullpen this year, hopefully.  If the command continues to look strong out of the bullpen we can revisit the starting rotation possibilities next year when Bautista returns to the pen.