Framber Valdez vs everyone else

[HakunaSakata]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If you look at Valdez’s Baseball Savant page, he really didn’t do a lot well in 2023 except induce ground balls.   He was in the 3rd percentile for average exit velocity, and 6th for hard hit rate.  His xERA was 4.33, about a run higher than in 2022.  

This is exactly the point I made earlier about him having red flags in his pitching profile. My hunch is that when things go bad for Valdez, they're going to go REALLY bad. Now will that be next season? Who knows, but he's already 30 and as he gets older I think it's fair to say that the risk of that happening increases exponentially 

[bpilktree]

29 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

So you think a career WHIP of 1.22 is good for an ace? Because it's not. Especially for one who doesn't have control issues. That's what I'm talking out!!!

Cease had a higher whip then that in 4 out of the 5 years so far.   Cease had 1 outstanding years and strikes guys out and misses bats but that about it.  2022 season just looks too much like an outlier for me to give up what the White Sox think he is worth.  

[Jim'sKid26]

3 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

This is officially my last post/reply about Valdez and missing bats because I've been fillibustered out of caring. 

Couldn't help yourself? 

Edited December 21, 2023 by Jim'sKid26

[HakunaSakata]

3 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

Cease had a higher whip then that in 4 out of the 5 years so far.   Cease had 1 outstanding years and strikes guys out and misses bats but that about it.  2022 season just looks too much like an outlier for me to give up what the White Sox think he is worth.  

I never said Cease was an ace and you (and we) have no idea what the White Sox are asking for him. That said, I think it is reasonable to expect Valdez to cost more than Cease so it’s not an apples to apples comparison. I’d rather have a less expensive Cease over an older more expensive pitcher who pitches to contact and who has outperformed his expected numbers nearly every season. And when I use the word expensive I’m talking about the prospect cost to trade for them. 

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I never said Cease was an ace and you (and we) have no idea what the White Sox are asking for him. That said, I think it is reasonable to expect Valdez to cost more than Cease so it’s not an apples to apples comparison. I’d rather have a less expensive Cease over an older more expensive pitcher who pitches to contact and who has outperformed his expected numbers nearly every season. And when I use the word expensive I’m talking about the prospect cost to trade for them. 

How does Valdez pitch to contact when he strikes out a hitter per inning and his whiff percentage is in the 56 percentile?   If he outperforms his expected numbers maybe there is something to it.   Also, you keep acting like 30 is old for a pitcher.    Prove it.

The only good point you make is that he might be more expensive BUT even there I’m not sure.  The WS can wait to trade Cease and need to make a killing on the trade to justify it.  The new GM Getz needs a deal that makes him look good.  The Astros motivation in trading Valdez is reportedly financial so they don’t want to wait and they might not drive as hard a bargain to move his salary.

[Billy F-Face3]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

 Also, you keep acting like 30 is old for a pitcher.  

30 is barely half way through a good pitcher's Major League career. Heck, Jamie Moyer pitched until he was 49. 

Legendary Hall Of Famer Satchel Paige didn't retire until he was 2 weeks shy of his 60th birthday and he had a career ERA of 2.70.

Justin Verlander won the Cy Young at 39 years old. He's almost 41 with a February birthday now so we may as well take the liberty of embellishment and say he was almost 40 when he won the Cy Young.

 

There are far more variables that determine a pitcher's future ability & production than just their age number.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

I never said Cease was an ace 

Fine, but nobody said Valdez was an ace, either.  So when you said his WHIP was high, there was no reason to read that as “high for an ace.”  Of 73 pitchers who have thrown 600+ innings since Valdez entered the league, Valdez is exactly at the median at no. 37.  Cease is 55th at 1.31.  https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=1&month=0&ind=0&sortcol=10&sortdir=default&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2018&season=2023&qual=600&pagenum=2&pageitems=30. Mind you, the >600 innings group is already a group of mostly above average pitchers, or they wouldn’t have had the opportunity to throw 600 innings.  

[Malike]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

If you look at Valdez’s Baseball Savant page, he really didn’t do a lot well in 2023 except induce ground balls.   He was in the 3rd percentile for average exit velocity, and 6th for hard hit rate.  His xERA was 4.33, about a run higher than in 2022.  

If you look at his last 3 years of statcast data, he didn't do a lot well, except put up 1.8/4.4./4.3  fWAR seasons.

[dystopia]

11 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

30 is barely half way through a good pitcher's Major League career. Heck, Jamie Moyer pitched until he was 49. 

Legendary Hall Of Famer Satchel Paige didn't retire until he was 2 weeks shy of his 60th birthday and he had a career ERA of 2.70.

Justin Verlander won the Cy Young at 39 years old. He's almost 41 with a February birthday now so we may as well take the liberty of embellishment and say he was almost 40 when he won the Cy Young.

 

There are far more variables that determine a pitcher's future ability & production than just their age number.

These are pretty big outliers, but I agree overall that 30 isn't that old for a pitcher.

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Again, it’s posters thinking who they want to trade versus what the other team would really want.  If the idea is to shed salary you don’t take back two bench players making 5M.

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I misread your post. Sorry.  Still, Houston’s farm system is depleted.   They are going to want to maximize the young talent coming back whereas you seem to want to include Mateo or Urias to lessen the young talent we would be sending.

Bingo! (Continuing from the discussion from the other thread into this appropriate Valdez thread)...

Houston is said to have a very depleted farm system and their main priority with it is to restock it now while they prepare for contracts of key players getting ready to expire. Valdez might get a decent return and is much more expendable than a franchise player Lance Berkman or Kyle Tucker, etc.  The salary dump is within their calculus, but it's kind of secondary to the farm system, in my estimation. 

An Astros official is also on the record responding to a reporter asking about  the possibility of Valdez being traded and his reaction was "We're trying to win here." I take that to mean that in order for them to be enticed into trading him, they're going to need a Major League ready starting pitcher to plug into their rotation as part of the trade deal. For us, this probably takes the top minor league pitchers out of consideration for the trade package. Based on that, we are looking more along the lines of a Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer, or DL Hall to get a deal.

[HakunaSakata]

On 12/22/2023 at 4:52 AM, dystopia said:

These are pretty big outliers, but I agree overall that 30 isn't that old for a pitcher.

Well 30 is kinda old relative to the age of the other SPs who have been rumored to be on the trade block. And between the outliers that you mentioned and the fact that he doesn't throw that hard (for this era) I have more questions about how Valdez's pitching profile will age more than the others. Yes guys like Scherzer and Verlander have been successful late in their careers, but they also throw considerably harder and have better strikeout numbers than Valdez. The other poster mentioned Jamie Moyer when discussing pitchers who have had career longevity. I'd personally prefer to trade for a guy like Burnes or Cease, if they cost less rather than a more proven pitcher like Valdez with red flags who will probably cost more. 

 

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Well 30 is kinda old relative to the age of the other SPs who have been rumored to be on the trade block. And between the outliers that you mentioned and the fact that he doesn't throw that hard (for this era) I have more questions about how Valdez's pitching profile will age more than the others. Yes guys like Scherzer and Verlander have been successful late in their careers, but they also throw considerably harder and have better strikeout numbers than Valdez. The other poster mentioned Jamie Moyer when discussing pitchers who have had career longevity. I'd personally prefer to trade for a guy like Burnes or Cease, if they cost less rather than a more proven pitcher like Valdez with red flags who will probably cost more. 

 

I’d worry about this if we were signing a guy for 4-6 years.  I wouldn’t worry about with in a trade for a guy with two years of service time remaining.  

[RZNJ]

42 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Well 30 is kinda old relative to the age of the other SPs who have been rumored to be on the trade block. And between the outliers that you mentioned and the fact that he doesn't throw that hard (for this era) I have more questions about how Valdez's pitching profile will age more than the others. Yes guys like Scherzer and Verlander have been successful late in their careers, but they also throw considerably harder and have better strikeout numbers than Valdez. The other poster mentioned Jamie Moyer when discussing pitchers who have had career longevity. I'd personally prefer to trade for a guy like Burnes or Cease, if they cost less rather than a more proven pitcher like Valdez with red flags who will probably cost more. 

 

According to Baseball Savant, Valdez avg fastball velocity was 95.3 in 2023.  Corbin Burnes was 95.3.  Dylan Cease was 95.6.   Now, what were you saying about him not throwing hard?

Statcast data for Verlander only goes back to 2015 when his fastball, at age 32 averaged 93.4.   His highest fastball average in that time was 95.3!  In 2017.  Scherzers highest average velocity in any year dating back to 2015 was in 2016 when he averaged 95.0.  Now, what were you saying about Verlander and Scherzer throwing “considerably” harder?

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by RZNJ

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

According to Baseball Savant, Valdez avg fastball velocity was 95.3 in 2023.  Corbin Burnes was 95.3.  Dylan Cease was 95.6.   Now, what were you saying about him not throwing hard?

Statcast data for Verlander only goes back to 2015 when his fastball, at age 32 averaged 93.4.   His highest fastball average in that time was 95.3!  In 2017.  Scherzers highest average velocity in any year dating back to 2015 was in 2016 when he averaged 95.0.  Now, what were you saying about Verlander and Scherzer throwing “considerably” harder?

 

Biggest difference I see between those three is their extension. 
Burnes 6.6 

Cease 6.3 

Valdez 5.9 

Those fastballs play very differently.  Can’t wait to see what Yamamoto is.  That’s one of the biggest difference in how they teach pitching over there.  In videos it crazy how far away from rubber he gets.  They are taught to take 7 steps (heel to toe), make a mark, and try to land  7 steps away from rubber.  5.9 is pretty bad unless he has some really small feet  

 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

If a trade for Valdez starts w/ Mayo and an identical package w/ Cowser instead of Mayo gets you Cease, which one do you want?  Mayo would make sense for Houston as they are probably looking to replace Bregman as he is a free agent after 2024.