Jackson Holliday spring training watch

[spleen1015]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As to the first point, I’m a simple man.  If Holliday plays better than Frazier, he’ll probably play more than Frazier.  If he doesn’t, he probably won’t.   Overall, Frazier probably played a bit more than he should have due to his “veteran” status.  There’s no saying that Holliday is guaranteed to play more; he may if he earns it.  

As to the second point, yes the fact that Westburg started all three playoff games is a good sign for him.  But I still think the guys who play best will play most. 
 

Frazier's not here anymore, so I'm not thinking about him with this situation this year. Holliday just needs to be one of the best 3 out of himself, Gunnar, Westburg, Urias, and Mateo. He's already better than Mateo. He's not gonna take ABs from Gunnar. I don't think Elias tells us Westburg is established without it meaning something, so Holliday just needs to be better than Urias.

[Jim'sKid26]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That may turn out to be correct, and I’d probably be happy if it did because that would mean both Westburg and Holliday played well.  I just don’t think it’s foreordained.  And by the way, Holliday’s at bats are filling the Frazier slot, which totaled 455 PA, so they don’t mostly come from Urias. 

Helpful vocabulary builder: read all of @Frobby's posts and look up the words you don't know.

Foreordained: (of God or fate) appoint or decree (something) beforehand. "progress is not foreordained"

Awesome!

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Helpful vocabulary builder: read all of @Frobby's posts and look up the words you don't know.

Foreordained: (of God or fate) appoint or decree (something) beforehand. "progress is not foreordained"

Awesome!

Sounds like preordained.

[sevastras]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sounds like preordained.

Sounds like you are being obtuse. 

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Helpful vocabulary builder: read all of @Frobby's posts and look up the words you don't know.

Foreordained: (of God or fate) appoint or decree (something) beforehand. "progress is not foreordained"

Awesome!

Us complicated guys say preordained.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, sevastras said:

You mean we didn’t sign Buck this off season and the guys that have the most games played will be the ones who play the most games?  Weird concept to think the best players get the most playing time. 
Next you are going to tell me that if Holliday struggles to start the season, he shouldn’t be sent down despite the bemoaning of some on here. 

I can’t follow parts of this post, so I’ll just succinctly say what I think.  I think Elias and Hyde are coming into spring training with a general idea of what they’d like to happen and who will get the playing time.  I think they’ll adjust a bit depending on what they see this spring.  And then when the season starts, they’ll go in with a general plan but adjust depending on who’s performing well or not.   And yes, they’ll give some rope to younger players who are adjusting to the majors. But they may not play every day while they’re struggling.  Just look at Gunnar; he started 65 of 81 games in the first half, 78 of 81 in the second half.  

Here are the 20th/50th/80th percentile ZiPS OPS projections for Holliday, Westburg and Urias:

Holliday:  .656/.723/.800

Westburg:   .660/.737/.813

Urias: .643/.716/.802

That’s a pretty wide range of outcomes.  I’m pretty sure that Westburg will get a lot more PA if he posts an .813 OPS and Urias posts .643, compared to if Westburg is at .660 and Urias is at .802.  Each of those outcomes is equally likely, according to ZiPS.   So, we’ll see what reality is.   

 

 

[Just Regular]

Someone needs to ask Mike Elias if Ramon Urias has experienced any Establishment Erosion.

I hope Ramon Urias and Kyle Stowers and Cole Irvin and Ryan McKenna get traded for Manny Machado and about however much cash BTV thinks so AJ Preller can take a full team to Japan and those guys can ply their trade.     Granted today Manny Machado may not be throwing or able to play 3B right away in 2024 - he's just a symbol of 3B being an unsettled position if Mayo can't do it.    Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon, maybe Alex Bregman in a year....pick a name if the Clubhouse needs that World Series Champion role model more.

I worry some if either Westburg or Holliday have 3B Arm if Mayo's reflexes are too slow, but both Mayo and Westburg seem worth trying.

Elias' early comments suggest the answer to the great question revolving around the Boras bookends is that Gunnar is the shortstop.

You know what would be a sweet Rubenstein shock move - Orioles have the best value bid for Matt Chapman.    Airtight defense in the Oriole tradition, right handed balance, deployment of new buying power, prioritization of 2024 Wins....

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Helpful vocabulary builder: read all of @Frobby's posts and look up the words you don't know.

Foreordained: (of God or fate) appoint or decree (something) beforehand. "progress is not foreordained"

Awesome!

I thought I might cause a few head scratches with lingua franca in my earlier post.  

Edited February 11 by Frobby

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

Someone needs to ask Mike Elias if Ramon Urias has experienced any Establishment Erosion.

I hope Ramon Urias and Kyle Stowers and Cole Irvin and Ryan McKenna get traded for Manny Machado and about however much cash BTV thinks so AJ Preller can take a full team to Japan and those guys can ply their trade.     Granted today Manny Machado may not be throwing or able to play 3B right away in 2024 - he's just a symbol of 3B being an unsettled position if Mayo can't do it.    Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon, maybe Alex Bregman in a year....pick a name if the Clubhouse needs that World Series Champion role model more.

I worry some if either Westburg or Holliday have 3B Arm if Mayo's reflexes are too slow, but both Mayo and Westburg seem worth trying.

Elias' early comments suggest the answer to the great question revolving around the Boras bookends is that Gunnar is the shortstop.

You know what would be a sweet Rubenstein shock move - Orioles have the best value bid for Matt Chapman.    Airtight defense in the Oriole tradition, right handed balance, deployment of new buying power, prioritization of 2024 Wins....

Sometimes I can’t understand your posts.  This one I understand and wish I didn’t.   

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I thought I might cause a few head scratches with lingua franca in my earlier post.  

I puked.   

[Orioles West]

28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If Mateo hits all year like he did last April he’ll play in 130+ games.  Is that what you’re predicting?   Of course, I’m basing this on Westburg and Holliday hitting like I think they will.

Let me add.  I think my thoughts reflect those of Elias.

While I don't know any of us can truly know Elias thoughts, it is a smaller leap and a solid bet he sure hopes Westburg and Holliday meet or exceed predictions or expectations.

Although I understand Frobby's caveat, that nothing is foreordained (which, to me is also a better word in this case than preordained) for our young Orioles. I guess I've been a fan long enough to have a hopeful side and still be able to rely more on cautious optimism. This is Baltimore and sometimes even our best and brightest let us down or take longer to develop than we want.

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If Mateo hits all year like he did last April he’ll play in 130+ games.  Is that what you’re predicting?   Of course, I’m basing this on Westburg and Holliday hitting like I think they will.

Let me add.  I think my thoughts reflect those of Elias.

What, did you do a Vulcan mind meld on him?  

I’m a believer that a pretty wide range of outcomes are reasonably probable to occur and that management will adjust accordingly.  See my previous post listing the 20/50/80 ZiPS projections for Westburg, Urias and Holiday.  None of those scenarios are as far out there as the Mateo example you gave.  

[RZNJ]

Just now, Frobby said:

What, did you do a Vulcan mind meld on him?  

I’m a believer that a pretty wide range of outcomes are reasonably probable to occur and that management will adjust accordingly.  See my previous post listing the 20/50/80 ZiPS projections for Westburg, Urias and Holiday.  None of those scenarios are as far out there as the Mateo example you gave.  

Ha.  I get it.  I used an extreme example.  I think there is a plan ( foreordained) heading into the season based on the teams belief in certain players.  If those beliefs are confirmed I stick by my guess on the playing time allocation.   All bets are off if Westburg and/or Holliday are hitting .179 on May 15.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Someone needs to ask Mike Elias if Ramon Urias has experienced any Establishment Erosion.

I hope Ramon Urias and Kyle Stowers and Cole Irvin and Ryan McKenna get traded for Manny Machado and about however much cash BTV thinks so AJ Preller can take a full team to Japan and those guys can ply their trade.     Granted today Manny Machado may not be throwing or able to play 3B right away in 2024 - he's just a symbol of 3B being an unsettled position if Mayo can't do it.    Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon, maybe Alex Bregman in a year....pick a name if the Clubhouse needs that World Series Champion role model more.

I worry some if either Westburg or Holliday have 3B Arm if Mayo's reflexes are too slow, but both Mayo and Westburg seem worth trying.

Elias' early comments suggest the answer to the great question revolving around the Boras bookends is that Gunnar is the shortstop.

You know what would be a sweet Rubenstein shock move - Orioles have the best value bid for Matt Chapman.    Airtight defense in the Oriole tradition, right handed balance, deployment of new buying power, prioritization of 2024 Wins....

Gunnar will be the long term third baseman.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Orioles West said:

While I don't know any of us can truly know Elias thoughts, it is a smaller leap and a solid bet he sure hopes Westburg and Holliday meet or exceed predictions or expectations.

Although I understand Frobby's caveat, that nothing is foreordained (which, to me is also a better word in this case than preordained) for our young Orioles. I guess I've been a fan long enough to have a hopeful side and still be able to rely more on cautious optimism. This is Baltimore and sometimes even our best and brightest let us down or take longer to develop than we want.

Ok, Mr. Linguist, how is foreordained different than preordained?