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Baseball America's Top 100


mefogus

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Nice question from the BA top 100 prospects chat! And a sweet answer!

Q: Dave H from Savannah asks:

If Jay Bruce, Justin Upton, and Clayton Kershaw were still eligible, do they take 1-2-3 ahead of Price/Wieters?

A: Jim Callis: I think Wieters still would be No. 1. And I would take Price ahead of those three as well.

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Couple of interesting O's related questions.

Q: Shoshana from Class asks:

It was great to see three O's prospects in the top 25, but I was surprised that Arrietta is so low? Also were Reimold or Snyder at all close to making it? Thanks for the chat!

A: John Manuel: Arrieta's fastball velocity and command weren't good enough for me to push him into the same realm as Tillman or Matusz; I think there's a dropoff from those guys to Arrieta. Reimold was strongly considered because of his power and hitting ability; Snyder wasn't really a factor.

: James from North East, MD asks:

Was any other Oriole pitcher (hint hint Brandon Erbe) given any consideration for the Top 100?

A: John Manuel: Erbe also was strongly considered, just didn't make the cut, wouldn't surprise me if he wound up in the pen with the effort in his delivery.

I think it's fair to say we have 6 guys in the top 125.

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I poised this question on today's BA Chat :

Q: James from North East, MD asks:

There are some O's fans who think it was a mistake to select Matusz over Smoak in last year's draft. Given the fact that BA has Smoak ranked higher than Matusz, do you agree as well? If the 2008 draft was redone, would the Orioles still select Matusz?

A:

Jim Callis: We have Smoak at No. 23 and Matusz at No. 25, so we're saying that they have essentially the same value. And given that it's much easier to find a first baseman than a quality lefthander, I would have taken Matusz as well. And the Orioles would do the same thing if the draft were restaged today.

<img src=http://www.extropica.com/images/owned9wz.jpg>

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I poised this question on today's BA Chat :

Q: James from North East, MD asks:

There are some O's fans who think it was a mistake to select Matusz over Smoak in last year's draft. Given the fact that BA has Smoak ranked higher than Matusz, do you agree as well? If the 2008 draft was redone, would the Orioles still select Matusz?

A:

Jim Callis: We have Smoak at No. 23 and Matusz at No. 25, so we're saying that they have essentially the same value. And given that it's much easier to find a first baseman than a quality lefthander, I would have taken Matusz as well. And the Orioles would do the same thing if the draft were restaged today.

Yeah! :boogie::boogie:

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Very interesting data on where the top 100 come from:

BY NATION

75 United States

12 Venezuela

6 Dominican Republic

4 Canada

2 Cuba

1 Netherlands

BY WHERE THEY SIGNED FROM

44 High school draft picks

25 College draft picks

20 International amateur free agents

11 Junior college draft picks

BY DRAFT ROUND

36 First

9 Supplemental first

7 Second

5 Third

3 Fourth

2 Fifth, seventh, 11th, 14th, 22nd

1 Sixth, eighth, 10th, 12th, 15th, 18th, 20th, 25th, 33rd, 42nd

BY OPENING DAY AGE

31 22-year-olds

19 21-year-olds

13 19-year-olds, 20-year-olds, 23-year-olds

6 24-year-olds

2 17-year-olds, 18-year-olds

1 25-year-old

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2009/267705.html

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Regarding Arrieta, I think people are surprised by these rankings because of the hype he has gotten on this board. There were numerous people making claims that most baseball people preferred Arrieta when that wasn't really true, at least among those outside the organization.

The ETA has to do with Tillman dominating in Double-A last year and Arrieta dominating in A+ ball. I assume Matusz's ETA is based on how advanced a pitcher he is.

As for Arrieta's velocity, he'll pitch in the 93 - 96 range in his first two innings before dropping down to the 91 - 94 range thereafter. I think his fastball command is better than the command on his breaking stuff.

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Very interesting data on where the top 100 come from:

BY NATION

75 United States

12 Venezuela

6 Dominican Republic

4 Canada

2 Cuba

1 Netherlands

BY WHERE THEY SIGNED FROM

44 High school draft picks

25 College draft picks

20 International amateur free agents

11 Junior college draft picks

BY DRAFT ROUND

36 First

9 Supplemental first

7 Second

5 Third

3 Fourth

2 Fifth, seventh, 11th, 14th, 22nd

1 Sixth, eighth, 10th, 12th, 15th, 18th, 20th, 25th, 33rd, 42nd

BY OPENING DAY AGE

31 22-year-olds

19 21-year-olds

13 19-year-olds, 20-year-olds, 23-year-olds

6 24-year-olds

2 17-year-olds, 18-year-olds

1 25-year-old

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2009/267705.html

[JTrea]Clearly we should be drafting 22 year old High Schoolers from the U.S. with out 1st Round pick. Any other choice would be crazy.[/JTrea]

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Regarding Arrieta, I think people are surprised by these rankings because of the hype he has gotten on this board. There were numerous people making claims that most baseball people preferred Arrieta when that wasn't really true, at least among those outside the organization.

The ETA has to do with Tillman dominating in Double-A last year and Arrieta dominating in A+ ball. I assume Matusz's ETA is based on how advanced a pitcher he is.

As for Arrieta's velocity, he'll pitch in the 93 - 96 range in his first two innings before dropping down to the 91 - 94 range thereafter. I think his fastball command is better than the command on his breaking stuff.

Pretty much every scouting service I know of -- including the OH Top 10 -- has Arrieta third out of the Big 3. I think everyone here accepts that, in terms of ceiling, that's the order. How soon Arrieta could be ready for the majors is a different issue than where you rank them.

However, if the O's thought Arrieta was closer to being ready than Tillman, then why on earth would they have Tillman start and end the year at Bowie while Arrieta spent the year at Frederick? That would make no sense.

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I've read here and in BA (and perhaps other sources) that there are folks that think Arrieta may end up the best of our big 3.

It seems that Arrieta's command and his secondary pitches would have to improve the most for that to come true, but, obviously, there are some people who believe that could or is likely to be the case.

If people have favorites among the big 3, great. Frankly, I do not care which one becomes a 1 or 2 as long as one or more of them does. It is exciting to have three of the best 30 or so pitching prospects in the game. That means that the weakest rated, Arrieta for now, is better than the #1 pitcher of several organizations - that's impressive, IMO, and one indication of the tremendous strength of our minor league pitching talent.

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Very interesting data on where the top 100 come from:

BY NATION

75 United States

12 Venezuela

6 Dominican Republic

4 Canada

2 Cuba

1 Netherlands

BY WHERE THEY SIGNED FROM

44 High school draft picks

25 College draft picks

20 International amateur free agents

11 Junior college draft picks

BY DRAFT ROUND

36 First

9 Supplemental first

7 Second

5 Third

3 Fourth

2 Fifth, seventh, 11th, 14th, 22nd

1 Sixth, eighth, 10th, 12th, 15th, 18th, 20th, 25th, 33rd, 42nd

BY OPENING DAY AGE

31 22-year-olds

19 21-year-olds

13 19-year-olds, 20-year-olds, 23-year-olds

6 24-year-olds

2 17-year-olds, 18-year-olds

1 25-year-old

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2009/267705.html

This is really good information... now all we need to do is go back 20 or so years and figure out how many top 10, 25, 50, 100 players became all stars (as opposed to nothing).

I'm not being pessimistic, because I'm not. I'm just trying to point out, that while 44% of the top players were drafted out of High School, I'm curious what age that would break down to them being now (that they are on the top 100)? Is the majority of this 44% 0-2 years post draft and are still only 18-20 years old and thus have more potential, which is why they are on the list in the first place?

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This is really good information... now all we need to do is go back 20 or so years and figure out how many top 10, 25, 50, 100 players became all stars (as opposed to nothing).

I'm not being pessimistic, because I'm not. I'm just trying to point out, that while 44% of the top players were drafted out of High School, I'm curious what age that would break down to them being now (that they are on the top 100)? Is the majority of this 44% 0-2 years post draft and are still only 18-20 years old and thus have more potential, which is why they are on the list in the first place?

There are more high school players on the list because they tend to spend a longer time being eligible for the list.

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Pretty much every scouting service I know of -- including the OH Top 10 -- has Arrieta third out of the Big 3.

I know, which is why I always wonder what people are reading when they say baseball people think Arrieta has the highest upside of the big three. I'm exaggerating the number of people who have said that, but it's been a couple.

I think everyone here accepts that, in terms of ceiling, that's the order. How soon Arrieta could be ready for the majors is a different issue than where you rank them.

Yeah, but you and a couple others mentioned they were surprised Arrieta ranked that low and I was basically responding that he's not really in the same class as Tillman and Matusz. I guess you could make a case for Arrieta being in the 40's, but not if you think his upside is closer to a No. 3 instead of a No. 2, which is what some of these publications believe.

However, if the O's thought Arrieta was closer to being ready than Tillman, then why on earth would they have Tillman start and end the year at Bowie while Arrieta spent the year at Frederick? That would make no sense.

You're agreeing with me, right? I was answering why the ETA for Matusz and Tillman were 2009 and Arrieta's was for 2010. I would have actually put Matusz's ETA at 2010 simply because it's not the Orioles style to promote aggressively.

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