Baseball America's Top 100

[mefogus]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2009/267698.html

Guess who's #1.

-m

[Frobby]

1. Wieters

22. Tillman

25. Matusz

67. Arrieta

I'm a bit surprised to see Arrieta that low.

[JTrea81]

And look at where Smoak is ranked compared to Matusz...

[Frobby]

And look at where Smoak is ranked compared to Matusz...

Yeah, let's obsess about 23 vs. 25.

[JTrea81]

Yeah, let's obsess about 23 vs. 25.

Right but Matusz was supposedly BPA on the draft board. BA apparently doesn't think so as Smoak, Posey and Beckham are ranked ahead of him.

Smoak and Matusz are pretty close, so it should make it even more fun to analyze their respective careers as time goes forward to see which was the better pick.

[DuffMan]

1. Wieters

22. Tillman

25. Matusz

67. Arrieta

I'm a bit surprised to see Arrieta that low.

They also have the ETA of Tillman and Matusz at 2009, but 2010 for Arrieta. That was a bit surprising to me.

[Hank Scorpio]

Yeah, let's obsess about 23 vs. 25.

You're talking to Sly!!!!!

[Hank Scorpio]

Big ups to the Braves, sporting two of the top five!!!!!

[hoosiers]

And look at where Smoak is ranked compared to Matusz...

The ratings of all the 08 draft guys are all over the place relative to their draft order.

BA also has a special subscription article on Price versus Wieters and asked 12 FO personnel who they would prefer. Final result - Wieters 10 Price 2.

[Lucky Jim]

Right but Matusz was supposedly BPA on the draft board. BA apparently doesn't think so as Smoak, Posey and Beckham are ranked ahead of him.

Smoak and Matusz are pretty close, so it should make it even more fun to analyze their respective careers as time goes forward to see which was the better pick.

You are positively certifiable.

[JBugaboo]

They also have the ETA of Tillman and Matusz at 2009, but 2010 for Arrieta. That was a bit surprising to me.

That's what jumped out to me as well. Go figure. But if Matusz is so good he flies through the minors in less than a year, under THIS organization preaching patience w/ our prospects... that's really something.

[tywright]

BP: Matusz, 19th vs Smoak, 22nd

[JTrea81]

You are positively certifiable.

Why? Just because BA doesn't think Matusz was a better pick than those other three?

I tend to agree with them.

[tywright]

Why? Just because BA doesn't think Matusz was a better pick than those other three?

I tend to agree with them.

Where does it say that BA thinks Smoak was a better pick than Matusz? What exactly do you mean when you say "better pick"?

[Lucky Jim]

Why? Just because BA doesn't think Matusz was a better pick than those other three?

I tend to agree with them.

You do? Really?

No, you're certifiable because of your deathgrip on speculative or insignificant information that you take to validate whatever your current obsession is.

What have we learned here? That essentially - as of now - Hosmer, Smoak, Matusz, and Beckham are interchangeable as prospects. Their value is essentially indistinguishable. How should we read that?

Well, you could look at the insignficant - and subjective - rankings and think it validates your opinion that the Orioles clearly made a mistake. Or - and this is what a rational person would do - you could look at it, see that it's likely a hard choice, and determine that the best decision-maker in this process is likely the person who spent the time and money to gather the most complete information about these prospects (i.e., the Orioles).

This information rebuts your theory. There's no clear consensus on who the best prospect out of that group is and thus you should be deferring here, rather than being obstinate. Remarkable that you can't see that.