Baseball America's Top 100

[Frobby]

Why? Just because BA doesn't think Matusz was a better pick than those other three?

I tend to agree with them.

Speaking for myself, my biggest concern when we make our no. 1 pick is that the player actually turns out to be a very good player. You can drive yourself nuts worrying about whether there was someone lower on the board you could have picked that turned out to be better, because the answer to that question almost always turns out to be yes. So if Matusz turns out to be the next Hamels and Smoak turns out to be the next Tex, I won't sweat the fact that I would have had a slight preference for the next Tex over the next Hamels. I'll just be glad I got the next Hamels and not the next Brian Bullington.

[jamesenoch]

Why? Just because BA doesn't think Matusz was a better pick than those other three?

I tend to agree with them.

So, by your own logic, the Rays made a mistake in selecting Price over Wieters in 2007. Is that correct?

[JTrea81]

So, by your own logic, the Rays made a mistake in selecting Price over Wieters in 2007. Is that correct?

Yes they did. Wieters should have gone #1. He will have the better career IMO.

Price is a very good pitcher, but not a HOF candidate and is still a major injury risk. Wieters is a HOFer if he lives up to his potential and he's got a better chance than Price to do that IMO.

[ChaosLex]

[tywright]

Yes they did. Wieters should have gone #1. He will have the better career IMO.

Price is a very good pitcher, but not a HOF candidate and is still a major injury risk. Wieters is a HOFer if he lives up to his potential and he's got a better chance than Price to do that IMO.

Don't sell Price short...he is a HOF candidate based on his potential.

TB was also in the same mindset we are in now, which focuses on stockpiling pitchers.

[YardBirds13]

Speaking for myself, my biggest concern when we make our no. 1 pick is that the player actually turns out to be a very good player. You can drive yourself nuts worrying about whether there was someone lower on the board you could have picked that turned out to be better, because the answer to that question almost always turns out to be yes. So if Matusz turns out to be the next Hamels and Smoak turns out to be the next Tex, I won't sweat the fact that I would have had a slight preference for the next Tex over the next Hamels. I'll just be glad I got the next Hamels and not the next Brian Bullington.

I could not have said it any better than this. Aboslutely 100% the correct way to look at the draft.

[Pedro Cerrano]

1. Wieters

22. Tillman

25. Matusz

67. Arrieta

I'm a bit surprised to see Arrieta that low.

This was my thought as well. I posted a poll a while back that essentially asked which of our "Big 3" would have the best career and Tillman, I believe, finished last.

I think it's funny he's ranked ahead of Matusz but 22 and 25 are essentially interchangable.

[Goop]

Thanks for posting this.

[byrdz]

Hehe, that made my day!

[wildcard]

They also have the ETA of Tillman and Matusz at 2009, but 2010 for Arrieta. That was a bit surprising to me.

Wow. Matusz making it to the big leagues this year. That is quite a prediction.

[Go Baby Birds!]

Right but Matusz was supposedly BPA on the draft board. BA apparently doesn't think so as Smoak, Posey and Beckham are ranked ahead of him.

Smoak and Matusz are pretty close, so it should make it even more fun to analyze their respective careers as time goes forward to see which was the better pick.

Yes you are right, Matusz was BPA on board, Best PITCHER Available, hasn't it been made clear to you yet that Andy's philosophy is to draft and develop arms then buy the bats later? This might not be the way you'd run this franchise but it's the way things are being done. If 23 compared to 25 is that big of an issue to you why don't you just send your resume over to the warehouse and see if you can take over the GM duties.

[Go Baby Birds!]

Wow. Matusz making it to the big leagues this year. That is quite a prediction.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a late season call-up to pitch some garbage games at the end of the year.

[whatdoiget000]

What are you trying to convince people of JTrea? What's done is done, root for Matusz.

[byrdz]

What are you trying to convince people of JTrea?

That AM is a bad man.

[jamesenoch]

Right but Matusz was supposedly BPA on the draft board. BA apparently doesn't think so as Smoak, Posey and Beckham are ranked ahead of him.

Smoak and Matusz are pretty close, so it should make it even more fun to analyze their respective careers as time goes forward to see which was the better pick.

I poised this question on today's BA Chat :

Q: James from North East, MD asks:

There are some O's fans who think it was a mistake to select Matusz over Smoak in last year's draft. Given the fact that BA has Smoak ranked higher than Matusz, do you agree as well? If the 2008 draft was redone, would the Orioles still select Matusz?

A:

Jim Callis: We have Smoak at No. 23 and Matusz at No. 25, so we're saying that they have essentially the same value. And given that it's much easier to find a first baseman than a quality lefthander, I would have taken Matusz as well. And the Orioles would do the same thing if the draft were restaged today.