Ryan Mountcastle and batted ball direction

[Frobby]

I came across an interesting article today on how batted ball direction varies the “expected” stats based on exit velocity and launch angle for fly balls.   Short answer: balls pulled down the lines do better than “expected,” balls hit to the center of the field do worse.   Not really a shocker, since the fences are deeper to CF than they are down the lines.  

This got me to thinking about Mountcastle, whose “expected” numbers have exceeded his actual numbers the last two years.   Contrary to what some people think, Mountcastle is not a pull hitter, pulling the ball only 30.7% of the time last year compared to 41.1% league average.  (30.7% was a career low for him, but his career average is only 34.7%.)

So, bottom line, yes the Wall takes some doubles and homers away from Mountcastle, but I think a big part of the reason he has underperformed his “expected” numbers is that he hits the ball to spots that are less likely to lead to good results.   The solution may be for him to pull more, not less, even if the Wall may frustrate him at times.  And, let’s not forget, the team plays half its games outside of Camden Yards.
 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I came across an interesting article today on how batted ball direction varies the “expected” stats based on exit velocity and launch angle for fly balls.   Short answer: balls pulled down the lines do better than “expected,” balls hit to the center of the field do worse.   Not really a shocker, since the fences are deeper to CF than they are down the lines.  

This got me to thinking about Mountcastle, whose “expected” numbers have exceeded his actual numbers the last two years.   Contrary to what some people think, Mountcastle is not a pull hitter, pulling the ball only 30.7% of the time last year compared to 41.1% league average.  (30.7% was a career low for him, but his career average is only 34.7%.)

So, bottom line, yes the Wall takes some doubles and homers away from Mountcastle, but I think a big part of the reason he has underperformed his “expected” numbers is that he hits the ball to spots that are less likely to lead to good results.   The solution may be for him to pull more, not less, even if the Wall may frustrate him at times.  And, let’s not forget, the team plays half its games outside of Camden Yards.
 

Just one of those things were the "common sense" answer is wrong.  The classic refrain is "use the whole field".

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Just one of those things were the "common sense" answer is wrong.  The classic refrain is "use the whole field".

Just because pulled balls may have more chance of being hits does not mean that the goal is to pull the ball more.   It’s not nearly that simple.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Just because pulled balls may have more chance of being hits does not mean that the goal is to pull the ball more.   It’s not nearly that simple.  

Of course it's not but neither is "use the whole field".

 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Of course it's not but neither is "use the whole field".

 

“Use the whole field” is much better advice to a hitter than “try to pull everything”.   Of course, there’s a lot more to it.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

“Use the whole field” is much better advice to a hitter than “try to pull everything”.   Of course, there’s a lot more to it.

I think “use the whole field” is good Baseball 101 advice.   Start from there and develop a more nuanced approach once that’s mastered, depending on your skill set.  

[Ven6]

The pitch determines where you should hit the ball. So “use the whole field” means don’t try to pull an outside pitch. When you do, it’s a grounder to short. If you are looking to pull more , that means you are hunting inside pitches. But with 2 strikes you have to go back to “hit it where it’s pitched. “

[Jammer7]

25 minutes ago, Ven6 said:

The pitch determines where you should hit the ball. So “use the whole field” means don’t try to pull an outside pitch. When you do, it’s a grounder to short. If you are looking to pull more , that means you are hunting inside pitches. But with 2 strikes you have to go back to “hit it where it’s pitched. “

Yes, and no. That is the developmental approach for most. However, if you get up on the plate, like say, Jim Thome, the outside pitch is in the middle of the plate. And you can pull everything, especially with a bigger, longer bat. You’d better be really good getting to the inside pitch. 

[RZNJ]

30 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Yes, and no. That is the developmental approach for most. However, if you get up on the plate, like say, Jim Thome, the outside pitch is in the middle of the plate. And you can pull everything, especially with a bigger, longer bat. You’d better be really good getting to the inside pitch. 

Anthony Rizzo.  Another example of that.  Maybe even more extreme.

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Anthony Rizzo.  Another example of that.  Maybe even more extreme.

Yes, and Manny Ramirez. All guys who could hit the inside FB, and dared you to throw it. Thome opened his stance quite a bit and looked to yank everything. His words.

[Ven6]

Manny, Thome, yeah that’s why those guys are the exception. We’re not talking hall of famer, we’re talking Ryan Mountcastle. 

[Billy F-Face3]

See ball. Is it a strike? Hit ball.

Simple as that.

[Jammer7]

5 hours ago, Ven6 said:

Manny, Thome, yeah that’s why those guys are the exception. We’re not talking hall of famer, we’re talking Ryan Mountcastle. 

You’re not wrong. I was just pointing out that it can be done, and well. There are many more out there who are “pull hitters.” They are not the majority.

As far as Mountcastle, he has excellent power to all fields. I would not suggest he become a pull hitter. He is actually a good “bad-ball hitter.” He will likely never be a guy who has a high OBP, IMO. He can be more situational and look to pull certain pitches more, but I would not advocate for him to be a pull hitter. He is a very good off speed hitter, and unless the pitch is a hanger, the approach should be right-center for Ryan for those pitches.

Ryan Ripken recently did a good breakdown of Mountcastle.

 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

See ball. Is it a strike? Hit ball.

Simple as that.

Ted Williams didn’t think so.  He’d lay off strikes in locations he knew he couldn’t hit well, until he had two strikes. 

[sportsfan8703]

19 hours ago, Frobby said:

I came across an interesting article today on how batted ball direction varies the “expected” stats based on exit velocity and launch angle for fly balls.   Short answer: balls pulled down the lines do better than “expected,” balls hit to the center of the field do worse.   Not really a shocker, since the fences are deeper to CF than they are down the lines.  

This got me to thinking about Mountcastle, whose “expected” numbers have exceeded his actual numbers the last two years.   Contrary to what some people think, Mountcastle is not a pull hitter, pulling the ball only 30.7% of the time last year compared to 41.1% league average.  (30.7% was a career low for him, but his career average is only 34.7%.)

So, bottom line, yes the Wall takes some doubles and homers away from Mountcastle, but I think a big part of the reason he has underperformed his “expected” numbers is that he hits the ball to spots that are less likely to lead to good results.   The solution may be for him to pull more, not less, even if the Wall may frustrate him at times.  And, let’s not forget, the team plays half its games outside of Camden Yards.
 

He pulled the ball 39.7% in 2021 and had a career year. The year before the wall, and his 2nd season in the MLB. Gotta hit the ball to all fields but also factor in the wall. Just like in Fenway.