Alex Pham 2024

[Frobby]

Alex Pham pitched three innings for the O’s today in Dunedin and I really liked what I saw.   There’s something about his motion that is a little unorthodox and deceptive, as he has a pretty directly overhand arm slot but it seems to me his hand passes his head much lower than most pitchers who throw from that slot.  He doesn’t throw super hard (topped out at 93) but he has good command of four pitches (fastball, cutter, curve, change) and he tunnels them extremely well.   The batters largely were way off balance and flummoxed.   He did hang one pitch that came in shoulder high and was slammed off the fence for a double, but that was the only mistake I saw in three innings.  He got 7 whiffs on 17 swings.  

I’d be interested in the thoughts of anyone else who watched him pitch on Tuesday.  
 

[Tony-OH]

He looked good and he did it without using his best off speed pitch (changeup) very often (5 of 40 pitches). He went very cutter heavy which is something I don't remember seeing last year as much.

He got the second most whiffs on the day with 7. 

The more I see him the more I see a bit of Zach Davies. If he can get to AAA this year and have some success there, he could become legitimate starting pitching depth. 

[btdart20]

I'm a Pham-stan.  He just interests me because he breaks the mold...  Here's some research I did this past December;

 

Bumping this because I'm a little interested in Alex Pham.  He's not a big guy, but the lack of "prototypical" height might be an advantage in other ways.

The negative is that his velo sits in the 91-92 range and touches 94-95.  He's not going to overpower anyone.  So how has he been successful?  And what's his path forward?

Start with the base that he has shown he can change speeds and location pretty well.  (Not that Aberdeen helps with video...)

Alex Pham's 11 strikeouts | 06/11/2023 | MiLB.com

He throws over the top (3/4 plus at least).  So my suspicion is that a low-ish release height (given his stature) with his more vertical arm angle could produce a more vertical backspin/good ride.  And ultimately, a low angle of entry into the hitting zone.  Especially high in the zone or just above.  But I wasn't able to find any video of a high 4S...  (I guess we'll find out this season in Norfolk with the added tech!)

 

Pair that with a few solid secondary pitches (or even primary lead pitches) and the 4S plays up.

 

Looks like a solid changeup (to a lefty and a righty) - Alex Pham's back-to-back K's | 09/13/2023 | MiLB.com

4S low - Alex Pham

[Tony-OH]

26 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I'm a Pham-stan.  He just interests me because he breaks the mold...  Here's some research I did this past December;

 

Bumping this because I'm a little interested in Alex Pham.  He's not a big guy, but the lack of "prototypical" height might be an advantage in other ways.

The negative is that his velo sits in the 91-92 range and touches 94-95.  He's not going to overpower anyone.  So how has he been successful?  And what's his path forward?

Start with the base that he has shown he can change speeds and location pretty well.  (Not that Aberdeen helps with video...)

Alex Pham's 11 strikeouts | 06/11/2023 | MiLB.com

He throws over the top (3/4 plus at least).  So my suspicion is that a low-ish release height (given his stature) with his more vertical arm angle could produce a more vertical backspin/good ride.  And ultimately, a low angle of entry into the hitting zone.  Especially high in the zone or just above.  But I wasn't able to find any video of a high 4S...  (I guess we'll find out this season in Norfolk with the added tech!)

 

Pair that with a few solid secondary pitches (or even primary lead pitches) and the 4S plays up.

 

Looks like a solid changeup (to a lefty and a righty) - Alex Pham's back-to-back K's | 09/13/2023 | MiLB.com

4S low - Alex Pham

I remember this and it's great analysis on him. I know I've said this before and in a non stacked system, I probably would have paid more attention to him, but he really does remind me of Zach Davies.

Davies was very similar in that his fastball was nothing to write home about, but he was just a pitcher who used all quadrants of the zone to attack hitter with four pitches. 

Pham does the same. Now that we have a little statcast data on him, we can see that he has good spin rates on his cutter, fastball and curveball, particularly for their speed. 

I need to look at the movement data from that outing to see how he matches up with big league pitchers, but haven't had the time. 

Still, there is something about the way he pitches and the amount of big league time he's gotten this spring without being a true NRI, tells me they like him as well.

He's going to be one that could fly up the prospect list and I may have underrated him on last year's list.

[interloper]

I enjoyed watching him pitch yesterday. His fastball is zippy even though it's not high-velo. Funky delivery. Looked confident out there. Definitely hope to see him get to AAA and, who knows, maybe he can be kind of the replacement for Bruce Zimmermann in the coming years as the up-and-down swingman guy. 

[ChosenOne21]

I always thought he was Alex Wells 2.0, but it sounds like his pitches and velocity are better. Which is good, because Wells was never close to being a MLB starting pitcher.

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I always thought he was Alex Wells 2.0, but it sounds like his pitches and velocity are better. Which is good, because Wells was never close to being a MLB starting pitcher.

Good pull on Alex Wells. Fun fact after looking at his wikipedia entry - he had a grade 1 UCL strain and missed 8-12 weeks before coming back and then we DFA'd him. But he signed with an Australian team in 2023, so it looks like he made a full recovery. Chalk up a win for UCL strain rehab, and hopefully Bradish's injury is similarly low-grade. 

[OriolesMagic83]

I want him to make the O's so we can have We are Phamily T-shirts

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I want him to make the O's so we can have We are Phamily T-shirts

Never ever ever!

[Frobby]

After a really disappointing April that saw his ERA balloon to 7.78, Alex Pham has found his bearings in May, allowing 3 ER in 14.1 IP, allowing 8 hits and 4 walks while striking out 17.   Yesterday Pham allowed a run on 2 hits and a walk in 4.2 innings, striking out 7.   53 of 72 pitches were strikes.  The sole run charged to Pham scored when reliever Kyle Virbitsky allowed a 2-out double to the first batter he faced after relieving Pham in the fifth.   

Due to the poor start, Pham’s ERA still rests at an unimpressive 5.29, but he’s definitely been headed in the right direction.  Also, he’s struck out 40 batters in 34 innings.   
 

[Frobby]

After I wrote the post above, Pham had three poor outings, one of which was beyond awful.  Today he got back on track with 6 shutout innings, allowing two hits and no walks and striking out 6.   Still, his ERA stands at 5.96, so he’s got a lot of work to do.  

[Ridgway22]

Whenever I see development trajectories like this, I ask questions to which answers will not be provided......

Is he being 'coached' and is working on things, implementing in a game environment, where the execution trumps results?

Or, is this his best effort and at the current level, is he not fooling anyone and getting torched?

When I get to the pearly gates, first I want to see the JFK exhibit. Then, I'll have tons of questions like this.

[Frobby]

Pham had his occasional great outing tonight.  6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K’s.  53 of 79 pitches for strikes.  He’s been very inconsistent but his ERA has gone down each month: 7.78, 5.64, 4.43, 1.93 (for now).   Trending the right direction, I guess.  

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

Seeing him tonight for the first time since last year.  He is throwing 94mph through two.  When I saw him last year he was sitting 90-92 most of the game.  

[EdwinRip]

Before tonight’s game, his xFIP for the year was 3.42. I imagine that will go down after tonight’s outing as well.