Winter 2024 40-Man Additions

[Warehouse]

Beyond Young, Luis Gonzalez and Kade Strowd have outside chance to be added. Most likely, that would be in the context of a call up later this year.

[luismatos4prez]

8/1 Update

In

Brandon Young: 3.18 ERA 3.62 FIP in July, strong month. Fangraphs had him as a 45 FV SP prospect. He's getting protected.

Probably Out

Luis Gonzalez: 3.50 ERA 2.59 FIP at AAA this year. I'm honestly surprised he hasn't gotten a look yet. But he's 32 and maybe they just don't think his stuff plays.

Edgar Portes: 7.62 ERA in A+ in July. Interesting prospect, but not someone who will get added this winter.

Nolan Hoffman: 6.00 BB/9 in AAA

Kade Strowd: 9.53 ERA in AAA

Juan Nunez: Hurt

Alex Pham: Pham is interesting SP depth. 5.45 ERA in AA but 3.43 xFIP, he gets a lot of Ks. Fangraphs describes him as a "near-ready spot starter".

--

No one else is worth consideration in my opinion. Any thoughts or disagreements?

[CaptainRedbeard]

I think Luis Gonzalez has a good shot to get added. He doesn’t have fastball velo but he has a really good spin rate on his fastball, it plays up. With Vespi and Zimmermann out of options and McHough traded, there’s no other in-house LHP for the Norfolk shuttle next year. Maybe it’s Akin, but he has only one option remaining - if he spends more than 20 days in the minors, he’ll be out of options next year too.

Strowd has been a disaster in AAA, but his stuff is SO good that I’m convinced a team will take him in the rule 5. I don’t know if that means the Orioles will protect him, because he’s been so bad in AAA that it could be worth the gamble he won’t be taken or he’ll be returned. Maybe depends on how tight the 40-man is this off-season and how many additions they’re anticipating. All I know is that if another team takes him and they harness his stuff, the Orioles are really going to regret leaving him unprotected.

Baker is out of options next year and he’s the primary righty Norfolk shuttle guy now. Maybe they hold onto Smith’s last option and that can be him next year. Maybe it’s Tate, but he’s also in arbitration and they could non-tender him. I think they’re going to want at least a couple RHP RPs with options next year, and they’ve been searching for those with Avila and Selby. Strowd has way more upside than those guys and could still push them off the 40-man, particularly if he starts pitching better the rest of the season. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

For as bad as Strowd has been in AAA with an appalling 7.88 BB/9, his K and GB rates have been so good that he has a 4.48 xFIP. He has a comical .441 BABIP and 46.2% HR/FB. Really strong 77.7% z-Contact and 68.9% Contact.

It’s bizarre. He’s not throwing strikes, but when he does throw strikes, batters are either whiffing at a really high rate or clobbering the ball at an exceptional rate.

There’s something there if the Orioles or another team ever figure out the right adjustments. Even though he has a quality fastball and slider/sweeper, maybe he just needs to go full Mariano/Jansen and throw the insane cutter 90%+ of the time (instead of the current 60%) to improve his command of it. 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

For as bad as Strowd has been in AAA with an appalling 7.88 BB/9, his K and GB rates have been so good that he has a 4.48 xFIP. He has a comical .441 BABIP and 46.2% HR/FB. Really strong 77.7% z-Contact and 68.9% Contact.

It’s bizarre. He’s not throwing strikes, but when he does throw strikes, batters are either whiffing at a really high rate or clobbering the ball at an exceptional rate.

There’s something there if the Orioles or another team ever figure out the right adjustments. Even though he has a quality fastball and slider/sweeper, maybe he just needs to go full Mariano/Jansen and throw the insane cutter 90%+ of the time (instead of the current 60%) to improve his command of it. 

Have you seen his insane cutter?   I remember watching him after he got promoted and I didn’t see some crazy good cutter.

Edited August 2 by RZNJ

[CaptainRedbeard]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Have you seen his insane cutter?   I remember watching him after he got promoted and I didn’t see some crazy good cutter.

I haven’t seen him pitch outside a handful of time in Spring Training when I wasn’t really paying attention, I’ve just looked at the Statcast data. He only threw the cutter 30% of the time yesterday and threw the fastball more so maybe going the other direction. But honestly all his stuff is good.  Fastball upper 90s with good spin, curve/sweeper with elite spin nearly 3000 RPMs.  Whatever he can throw for strikes not down the middle will probably work. 

I recall last I checked in Eno Sarris’ spreadsheet of AAA pitchers, Strowd’s Stuff+ is around 135. There’s only 11 pitchers at the MLB level with over 20 IP this year at 135 or higher. If the Orioles don’t protect him, some team that cares about pitch modeling is going to take a flyer on him in the Rule 5 if their models are putting out something similar, regardless of his AAA numbers this year. And all indications are the Orioles are a team that cares about pitch models, particularly for RPs, based on the guys they have consistently targeted in the Elias era. If the command and results are any better down the stretch I don’t think they take the chance.

[Aristotelian]

Heid is interesting. McGough and Cook are gone. 

[luismatos4prez]

2 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I haven’t seen him pitch outside a handful of time in Spring Training when I wasn’t really paying attention, I’ve just looked at the Statcast data. He only threw the cutter 30% of the time yesterday and threw the fastball more so maybe going the other direction. But honestly all his stuff is good.  Fastball upper 90s with good spin, curve/sweeper with elite spin nearly 3000 RPMs.  Whatever he can throw for strikes not down the middle will probably work. 

I recall last I checked in Eno Sarris’ spreadsheet of AAA pitchers, Strowd’s Stuff+ is around 135. There’s only 11 pitchers at the MLB level with over 20 IP this year at 135 or higher. If the Orioles don’t protect him, some team that cares about pitch modeling is going to take a flyer on him in the Rule 5 if their models are putting out something similar, regardless of his AAA numbers this year. And all indications are the Orioles are a team that cares about pitch models, particularly for RPs, based on the guys they have consistently targeted in the Elias era. If the command and results are any better down the stretch I don’t think they take the chance.

Strong points. But I still find it hard to believe that even a bottom feeder would Rule V someone who's putting up 7.9 BB/9 and 2.3 HR/9 in AAA. I wonder if that's ever happened before. Regardless, we'll see if he can find some command over the last part of the season.

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 minute ago, luismatos4prez said:

Strong points. But I still find it hard to believe that even a bottom feeder would Rule V someone who's putting up 7.9 BB/9 and 2.3 HR/9 in AAA. I wonder if that's ever happened before. Regardless, we'll see if he can find some command over the last part of the season.

Very true. But at the same time, how many teams have seen Mike Baumann, Yohan Ramírez and Thyago Viera on waivers this year and said “I can fix him”? They’ve been passed around across the league and I believe none of them have made it through waivers once - largely picked up by analytically focused contending teams too. And those are just the names I’m most familiar with because they were Orioles.

While Strowd’s stuff matches up with (or even exceeds) that group, those guys are definitely better pitchers than what Strowd has been to date, of course. But at the same time - Rule 5 is pretty much the same as a waiver claim on an out of options guy, but you get all of the offseason and spring training to tinker with him. It only takes one team that takes even a cursory look at the Statcast data for AAA pitchers in advance of Rule 5 for Strowd to stand out and perhaps think he’s worth an offseason 40-man spot for a lottery ticket. 

[luismatos4prez]

3 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Very true. But at the same time, how many teams have seen Mike Baumann, Yohan Ramírez and Thyago Viera on waivers this year and said “I can fix him”? They’ve been passed around across the league and I believe none of them have made it through waivers once - largely picked up by analytically focused contending teams too. And those are just the names I’m most familiar with because they were Orioles.

While Strowd’s stuff matches up with (or even exceeds) that group, those guys are definitely better pitchers than what Strowd has been to date, of course. But at the same time - Rule 5 is pretty much the same as a waiver claim on an out of options guy, but you get all of the offseason and spring training to tinker with him. It only takes one team that takes even a cursory look at the Statcast data for AAA pitchers in advance of Rule 5 for Strowd to stand out and perhaps think he’s worth an offseason 40-man spot for a lottery ticket. 

It's possible someone takes a chance on pure stuff and ignores results/command, but I'm still betting he goes unprotected and undrafted (unless he finishes really strong). We'll see in a few months if you're right.

[sportsfan8703]

The 40 man might have a lot more room than anticipated.  Stowers and Norby got traded.  Santa, Burnes, Slater, McCann and Kimbrel are Free Agents.  Eloy likely won't be back.  Mountcastle could be traded with Mayo now on the 40 man.  Vavra could very well be DFA'd, and he's out of options next season.  The pitchers that will be out of options next year are Zimmerman, Akin, Vespi, and Baker.  That's 12 names right there.

[Tony-OH]

On 8/2/2024 at 9:39 AM, CaptainRedbeard said:

I haven’t seen him pitch outside a handful of time in Spring Training when I wasn’t really paying attention, I’ve just looked at the Statcast data. He only threw the cutter 30% of the time yesterday and threw the fastball more so maybe going the other direction. But honestly all his stuff is good.  Fastball upper 90s with good spin, curve/sweeper with elite spin nearly 3000 RPMs.  Whatever he can throw for strikes not down the middle will probably work. 

I recall last I checked in Eno Sarris’ spreadsheet of AAA pitchers, Strowd’s Stuff+ is around 135. There’s only 11 pitchers at the MLB level with over 20 IP this year at 135 or higher. If the Orioles don’t protect him, some team that cares about pitch modeling is going to take a flyer on him in the Rule 5 if their models are putting out something similar, regardless of his AAA numbers this year. And all indications are the Orioles are a team that cares about pitch models, particularly for RPs, based on the guys they have consistently targeted in the Elias era. If the command and results are any better down the stretch I don’t think they take the chance.

Strowd's statcast numbers really belie the awful numbers he has put up. I thought he really found something with the cutter and improved command, but once he hit AAA, the command went. I haven't looked of late to see how they are hitting his cutter, but it was pretty much unhittable to AA hitters. 

Sometimes though, that jump to AAA really shows the difference between AA and AAA hitters. I don't think he ends up on the 40-man because of his numbers, but he's still worth keeping an eye on.

[sportsfan8703]

16 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Strowd's statcast numbers really belie the awful numbers he has put up. I thought he really found something with the cutter and improved command, but once he hit AAA, the command went. I haven't looked of late to see how they are hitting his cutter, but it was pretty much unhittable to AA hitters. 

Sometimes though, that jump to AAA really shows the difference between AA and AAA hitters. I don't think he ends up on the 40-man because of his numbers, but he's still worth keeping an eye on.

Good analysis. Is it a different ball from AA to AAA?  With more analytic data available in the minors now, do we know why Norfolk has seemingly turned into an offensive environment so much?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Good analysis. Is it a different ball from AA to AAA?  With more analytic data available in the minors now, do we know why Norfolk has seemingly turned into an offensive environment so much?

The whole league is a strong offensive environment because the robo-umps eliminate many incorrect calls, and the vast majority of incorrect calls favor the pitchers.   As for Norfolk itself, last year their ballpark factor was exactly 100.  They hit better than league average because their hitters are very good.  

[luismatos4prez]

Early September Update

Locks:

Brandon Young - 31 IP, 2.30 ERA, 2.59 FIP since 8/1. Outstanding enough that we might see him make an appearance this September.

Very Unlikely:

Edgar Portes - 2.92 FIP since 8/1. I'm starting to really like Portes, but he's not someone I'd protect at this stage of his career. Not getting promoted to AA says something to me, too.

Alex Pham - 111 IP 3.90 FIP in AA. Pham is worth keeping an eye on, but I consider him another Garrett Stallings.

Kade Strowd - 3.71 FIP since 8/1 is nice, still 5.84 BB/9 though. I just can't see him getting protected with his command. 

Nothing new here. Any disagreements? I strongly doubt anyone but Young gets protected this winter, and even he might make it before the end of the year.