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You can stick a fork in Pauley so far as I'm concerned


Frobby

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Agree with the above. Many times, I have criticized BABIP as it is used here. To think that a pitcher "controls" a ball hit out of the park, but not a similarly hit ball that hits the wall (that would be something allowed by luck or the defense) is poor logic.

I have seen some recent analysis that combines BABIP with line drive rates that could lead to something useful. In the meantime, to me, BABIP is not an appreciable statistic to make appropriate conclusions regarding the quality of a pitcher versus his "luck".

I've never understood the BABIP advocates. The major league average rounds to the vicinity of .300. Why was it ever a big deal that a similar % of balls hit in play became hits? Asking seriously, not facetiously - depending on the answer ;).

Also, regarding the BABIP question, read this fantastic article. It statistically confirms what most casual fans already believed, that good pitchers don't get hit as hard. DIPS theory is a simplification that is very useful but it has had the unfortunate side-effect of making people think that everything besides strikeouts, walks and home runs is luck. This explains the fetishization of peripheral stats as well as the disconnect between the common sense idea that good pitchers generate weak contact and the common sabermetric conception that a ball in play is out of the hands of a pitcher regardless of their skill.

I really recommend you read it, but here are some highlights:

Nicely done with the HT article. Hopefully, not too many BABIP-fixated folks here will notice or take the time to read it. Would miss my steady supply of chuckles.

I think with the introduction of hit f/x this year, and assuming a fairly steep curve re:efficacy thereof, within 2-3 years we'll see some proof of just how limited BABIP comparisons are when conducted between batters. Or more exactly, we'll see that individual P's comprise a greater part of the outcome, when not a three true outcome, than has been believed since McCracken's original work. I know, great revelation to the non-sabermetricians in the OH audience. :)

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Guest rochester

Y'know...it's bad..forget small sample sizes, etc. I am so happy that he throws strikes and doesn't walk every other batter (Ok hyperbole again) that only getting knocked around is not bad....:rolleyes:

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FYI, BABIP was around long before McCracken came up with his DIPS theory. Also. the theory has evolved so much that what you keep taking shots at is only a very faint shadow of what most reasonable people now believe.

On topic, I agree that Pauley isn't likely to amount to much.

Adding to the 24 hits in only 11 IP, he's allowed 54 hits in 28 regular season innings (due largely to a very high LD%). Add to that 371 hits allowed in 350 innings in AAA (in what is clearly a pitcher's league) the last three years. His MLE was mentioned. According to the MLE I'm looking at he allowed 173 hits in 147 IP last year. Add to that the three projection systems on Fangraphs which collectively project him to allow 381 H in 322 collective IP.

No hits per IP certainly isn't best way to evaluate pitchers, but with a track record like the one shown above, I wouldn't be too worried about losing Pauley on waivers.

As for "losing" Bierd - not a loss, at all.

That just sounded a lot like

This stat is worthless to me. Unless I totally misunderstand it, somewhere in there are horrible pithers, great pitchers and average pitchers with regard to hit's per balls in play. If you're going to attempt to determine where pitcher X falls, look at his history. Pauley doesn't have a track record of success with which you can not feel he is anything but a gamble. Having 2-3 of these guys in camp is ok, having 80% of the camp being these type guys isn't so good.

Thanks! :)

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I'd hold on to Pauley. Small sample size. Now if it was Baez? See YA!

I don't get the support for Pauley.

The dude wasn't even a top 30 prospect (according to BA) the last 2 years.

Looking at his numbers against MLB hitting:

2006 (BOS) - 31 hits in 16 innings

2008 (BOS) - 23 hits in 12.1

2009 (SP) - 24 hits in 11 innings

That's about a .400 BA against in 49+ innings

Unless he is facing Ted Williams of '41 each at every at bat, I'd say this sample is ample.

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If nothing else, this is a good counterargument for people who say "well if only they'd throw the ball over the plate!". It's not like our pitchers don't know how to throw in a straight line, it's that throwing hard, with movement, and still getting it over the plate is hard.

Honestly, my favorite expression that cropped up a lot last season was "all I want from a pitcher is that they throw strikes and miss bats". Well, duh.

I wish people would be less sweeping with their generalizations.

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Guest BrettMeister86

From watching Pauley in ST this year, even against less than stellar competition (AKA ST scrubs) he looks extremely hittable, and not in a good way. He doesn't pitch to contact resulting in grounders he pitches to contact resulting in line drives and extra base hits. Look, we all know the rotation is a mess at this point but someone nailed it when they said just because a pitcher keeps it over the plate doesn't mean a thing if they're throwing meatballs and thats exactly what he does.

At this point I would have to say that Bass has replaced Pauley in the rotation in my eyes, and Bergesen has earned his spot as well. I think Hill does start in the 5th slot until totally healthy where he can move up to 3rd. I hope that Penn can make the rotation but just haven't seen him enough, and of course Albers is solid but is he durable enough? At this point I would have to say we hope Uehara is good to go and then it goes like this:

Guthrie, Uehara, Bass, Bergesen...(the early schedule doesn't call for a 5th starter giving Hill more rehab time). When he does come back...

Guthrie, Uehara, Hill, Bass or a Healthy Albers, Bergesen. I can roll with that.

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Posted this before:

1) He is out of options.

2) He is only 25(26 in June).

3) Over the past 2 seasons, he has made 51 starts in the minors and has averaged almost 6 IP per start...And he had one relief appearance in that time period where he went 6 innings.

4) He hasn't shown much in the majors but he has also only pitched 28 innings...But in the minors, he showed pretty good command. His FIP in 2007 was 4.35 and last year it was 3.65...Both years in AAA.(his career FIP is 4.23)

I don't expect him to be anything great but he had a 5.21 MLE FIP in 2007 and a 4.39 MLE FIP last year.

So, if he can stay healthy, maybe he can get us 25-30 starts, pitch 150-160 innings and give us a 4.80ish ERA.

The 3.65 FIP last year is what put me all-in prior to spring but it seems like something is not right with him right now. I don't know that he would be claimed off waivers and if not I don't think that a few starts in AAA to get comfortable and confident and then bring him up would be a bad thing. Nevertheless, I hope we give him a little more time, everything about his past two seasons screams 4th or 5th starter this year, he has got to put it together though, if not soon, perhaps in the minors and then majors.

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No more of a generalization than all of the clamoring for "pitchers who pitch to contact."

The funny thing about your statement is that one thing scouts and stats analysts agree on is that pitchers who throw strikes and miss bats are most likely to have consistent success. Not to mention that both things are measurable. I'm not sure how that is such a big generalization. Give me a pitcher who does those two things and who induces ground balls (something else that is measurable), and I'll take my chances.

My irritation stems from the fact that "throwing strikes and missing bats" basically means you're a great pitcher. Anyway, people are just being extreme either way. They see D-Cab walk five guys and scream for someone who gets it over the plate no matter their other flaws, and then they see Pauley give up 10 hits in 4 innings and no walks and scream for someone who can get a K. It's stupid. You know what we really need? Good pitchers. There's no silver bullet in the form of a bad pitcher with the correct skill set that's gonna save us.

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