Extend Burnes

[Allan Bryant]

My question regarding signing Burnes is……..what is Mr Ruby’s willingness and commitment to spending the funds required ?

[Allan Bryant]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

So I'm guessing you are against a Burnes deal? 

I wouldn't go over a 5 years deal, but I would be for a 5-year or less deal because the payroll should still be manageable over that time. 

Tony , I would go over 5 years for Gunner , Adley or Holiday or position players.

But pitchers ?  I’m with you on 5 years or less ONLY. I’m willing pay higher AVV for those types of deals . All players have risks but pitchers are poorest risks of all 

[baltfan]

While people trash going after elite pitchers in free agency, it seems to work about as much as going after hitters.  Verlander, Greinke,  Sanathia, Mussina,  Cole, and Scherzer were all good deals.  

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, interloper said:

Either Elias got lucky (so far), or they have some data that predicts if a guy will remain healthy. 

If so, they should have used it on Wells and Means.  

[EddeeEddee]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

While people trash going after elite pitchers in free agency, it seems to work about as much as going after hitters.  Verlander, Greinke,  Sanathia, Mussina,  Cole, and Scherzer were all good deals.  

I agree.  That the Orioles have never signed a top tier free agent starter from the Angelos era on is one of the main reasons they haven't been a serious WS contender.  Letting Mussina get away was maybe the most devastating event to the franchise in the past three decades.  But does anyone miss Manny Machado?  

I know that's a bit overly simplistic but the basic point remains:  elite pitching is more difficult to acquire than elite hitting -- especially under Elias' draft and development philosophy.  Under Elias this team does not appear likely to become a pitching factory, at least not for awhile.  The trade bats for arms philosophy more likely will just get us rentals like Burnes, unless we really start to trade top position prospects for top arms.  But even then what other team wants to trade top arms 2 or more years before free agency?  Maybe Elias can sucker the Angels or someone else out of a Kyle Bradish, but I'm skeptical it can be done again anytime soon, partly because we don't have any Dylan Bundys hanging around.  Even getting another Dean Kremer could be difficult.  

Moreover, while pitchers may be more susceptible to injury, elite hitters can stop being elite fast after age 30.   And basic math suggests starters overall contribute more too.  A starter pitches every five games whereas a hitter only can contribute one ninth of all chances on offense.  And elite starters go deeper into games. 

That said, it would be wise avoid top starters with an injury history -- unless it's a shorter term deal.  I'd love to land Walker Buehler, but would he sign for only three years plus an option?  The Dodgers probably don't let him get away anyway.  Similar deal with Max Fried.

As far as I can tell Burnes is the only elite FA available that is not tied up in an opt out or option, not coming off injury, or not pushing 40 years old.  Maybe we can land some hidden gem of an arm coming from Japan or Korea, but it would have to be a Shota Imanaga stroke of luck.  

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

So I'm guessing you are against a Burnes deal? 

I wouldn't go over a 5 years deal, but I would be for a 5-year or less deal because the payroll should still be manageable over that time. 

Do you think Burnes would go for a 5-year deal? I'm guessing someone else will offer 6 or 8. And it's unlikely the Orioles offer so much more per year he'd take the shorter deal.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Moreover, while pitchers may be more susceptible to injury, elite hitters can stop being elite fast after age 30.   And basic math suggests starters overall contribute more too.  A starter pitches every five games whereas a hitter only can contribute one ninth of all chances on offense.  And elite starters go deeper into games. 

Top non-pitchers, 2017-2023, by rWAR:

Betts, 46.9
Judge, 41.7
Ramierz, 37.9
Trout, 37.5
Arenado, 35.9

Pitchers:

Scherzer, 37.0
Cole, 32.4
deGrom, 30.3
Nola, 30.2
Verlander, 29.9

There were 14 hitters as valuable as Verlander over that period.

Top non-pitcher single seasons since 2010: 10.7, 10.5, 10.5, 10.5, 9.9
Top pitcher single seasons since 2010: 9.7, 9.5, 8.9, 8.8, 8.6

Elite hitters are more valuable and more consistently good in the game as it's played today. It's just too hard to create as much value in 200 innings/850 batters faced/no hitting/minimal defense, than it is in 650-700 PAs plus defense.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, Allan Bryant said:

Tony , I would go over 5 years for Gunner , Adley or Holiday or position players.

But pitchers ?  I’m with you on 5 years or less ONLY. I’m willing pay higher AVV for those types of deals . All players have risks but pitchers are poorest risks of all 

Speaking in the abstract, I'd rather trade for an ace who has 2-3 years left on his contract than sign one for the 5/200+ it'll take.

[SilverRocket]

8 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

However, you can make Burnes a 4 year deal that's steep (4 for $150)

It takes two to tango, and I think Burnes laughs at that offer.

[SilverRocket]

8 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

However, you can make Burnes a 4 year deal that's steep (4 for $150)

It takes two to tango, and I think Burnes laughs at that offer.

[Hallas]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Speaking in the abstract, I'd rather trade for an ace who has 2-3 years left on his contract than sign one for the 5/200+ it'll take.

How much would it take to pry Gilbert from the Mariners in the offseason?  Does Basallo and Kjerstad and some parts get it done?

[DrungoHazewood]

10 minutes ago, Hallas said:

How much would it take to pry Gilbert from the Mariners in the offseason?  Does Basallo and Kjerstad and some parts get it done?

I really don't have the slightest idea.

[EddeeEddee]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Top non-pitchers, 2017-2023, by rWAR:

Betts, 46.9
Judge, 41.7
Ramierz, 37.9
Trout, 37.5
Arenado, 35.9

Pitchers:

Scherzer, 37.0
Cole, 32.4
deGrom, 30.3
Nola, 30.2
Verlander, 29.9

There were 14 hitters as valuable as Verlander over that period.

Top non-pitcher single seasons since 2010: 10.7, 10.5, 10.5, 10.5, 9.9
Top pitcher single seasons since 2010: 9.7, 9.5, 8.9, 8.8, 8.6

Elite hitters are more valuable and more consistently good in the game as it's played today. It's just too hard to create as much value in 200 innings/850 batters faced/no hitting/minimal defense, than it is in 650-700 PAs plus defense.

You're making the mistake of comparing pitchers to hitters using a one size fits all metric that keeps proving to be flawed and has nothing to do with compensation. 

Even if hitting is more valuable in what is probably a mostly meaningless "WAR" (and again which one, bWAR, fWAR? -- none of this is fixed), it's scarcity of talent that keeps compensation high for great starting pitching, despite the risks.  Supply and demand is real, WAR not as much if at all. 

WAR, to the extent it has value or shows value, is better for comparing players at similar positions.  Meanwhile, comparing Gerrit Cole to Mookie Betts, stripped of real world factors like need and scarcity in the field or on the mound, is fun but has no practical point.

[EddeeEddee]

19 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Speaking in the abstract, I'd rather trade for an ace who has 2-3 years left on his contract than sign one for the 5/200+ it'll take.

Who trades aces that have 2-3 years on left their contract?  And even if they do how are you are going to get one of them without trading Basallo and or Mayo? 

That said, maybe the O's analytics team is so good they believe they can trade for another Kyle Bradish -- in other words trade for an ace no one else thinks is an ace, at least not the team trading him.  I'm doubtful even the analytics team believes they can trade for another Bradish anytime soon, but maybe another Dean Kremer? 

Still, this discussion is about aces, not about 2-5 guys coming off injury -- and Burnes is one and he's a healthy one.  I think the O's can draft and develop them again one day but who knows when the next one will be?

[baltfan]

36 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Top non-pitchers, 2017-2023, by rWAR:

Betts, 46.9
Judge, 41.7
Ramierz, 37.9
Trout, 37.5
Arenado, 35.9

Pitchers:

Scherzer, 37.0
Cole, 32.4
deGrom, 30.3
Nola, 30.2
Verlander, 29.9

There were 14 hitters as valuable as Verlander over that period.

Top non-pitcher single seasons since 2010: 10.7, 10.5, 10.5, 10.5, 9.9
Top pitcher single seasons since 2010: 9.7, 9.5, 8.9, 8.8, 8.6

Elite hitters are more valuable and more consistently good in the game as it's played today. It's just too hard to create as much value in 200 innings/850 batters faced/no hitting/minimal defense, than it is in 650-700 PAs plus defense.

You have to have pitching to win. They are definitely more of a risk, but they also come cheaper than the best position players because of the risk.  Every hitter you list got more than every one of those pitchers.