This series is an example of why you don’t trade any of Holliday, Basallo, or Mayo, unless is for an ACE

[Filmstudy]

13 hours ago, allquixotic said:

I think, as pitchers become more injury-prone, the overall market value of elite pitchers will decrease. Even the Dodgers and Yankees can only absorb so many elite pitchers losing 20-25% of their career best years and 20-40% of their contract (or years under team control, as the case may be) to Tommy John surgery.

The market economy will hopefully see that the near-insane risk associated with any single pitcher makes them less valuable, on the whole, than position players. It may then become easier to afford them.

 

This.

The Orioles have enough firsthand experience to understand the relative danger of trading a star position player for a pitcher.  I think this board actually overvalues controllable years for pitchers in that same sense.  Controllable years have tremendous value for position players, but significantly less for pitchers.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I want to offer this as a different possibility of looking at the game and assessing value...

If the truest principal of "money ball" is about being able to take advantage of market inequities, then players like Webb (and our very own Santander for that matter) are the kinds of players in the statcast era where you can get value from them because they may be "devalued" to some degree because they are more traditional "counting numbers" kind of players.

This is where I see the competitive advantage right now. In an era where just about every attribute is being studied and can be quantified (sprint speed, bat speed, rotations on a pitcher's pitches, etc.). It's like the game has gone so high tech and data driven (with the rest of society) that traditional means of measuring the game are now being undervalued or devalued (BA, RBIs, pitcher wins, quality starts, etc.).

Webb isn’t devalued. If anything, he’s overvalued and that’s my point.

 

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Webb isn’t devalued. If anything, he’s overvalued and that’s my point.

 

I'm sorry if I misread/misunderstood your point. But the way I read what you typed was that you were concerned about the risk due to his lower strikeout numbers and his statcast numbers (him being a more contact pitcher).

What I was saying is that this may be the kind of player who can give you value because he doesn't possess those things/is not elite in those areas?

In an era where just about everything can be quantified and is being quantified (by all teams now), I see a need to look beyond statcast numbers in order to find a competitive advantage. High school kids have access to things like launch angle and spin rate data now. If Elias/Sig and company are going to stay ahead of the curve, they are going to have to look in places where not everyone else is looking.

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Is Scherzer sill a "good pitcher"?

At the time of the trade he was. Other comparables:

Verlander for Drew Gilbert (MLB #68)

Montgomery for Roby and Saagese

Castillo (with extra year of control) for Noelvi Marte (MLB #18) 

Berrios for Austin Martin (#50) and Woods Richardson

Scherzer '21 *and Trea Turner* for Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray

 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I'm sorry if I misread/misunderstood your point. But the way I read what you typed was that you were concerned about the risk due to his lower strikeout numbers and his statcast numbers (him being a more contact pitcher).

What I was saying is that this may be the kind of player who can give you value because he doesn't possess those things/is not elite in those areas?

In an era where just about everything can be quantified and is being quantified (by all teams now), I see a need to look beyond statcast numbers in order to find a competitive advantage. High school kids have access to things like launch angle and spin rate data now. If Elias/Sig and company are going to stay ahead of the curve, they are going to have to look in places where not everyone else is looking.

But he’s been a TOR guy who eats innings and has excellent ERAs.  He’s not devalued at all in baseball circles.  I am devaluing him because I want different traits that I feel are better suited for the postseason especially.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

At the time of the trade he was. Other comparables:

Verlander for Drew Gilbert (MLB #68)

Montgomery for Roby and Saagese

Castillo (with extra year of control) for Noelvi Marte (MLB #18) 

Berrios for Austin Martin (#50) and Woods Richardson

Scherzer '21 *and Trea Turner* for Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray

 

I'm sorry I thought you were talking about when he was traded last season for Luisangel Acuna.

Oh yes, Scherzer was very good in 21 and 22 (for that matter). Last season not so much. I remember him being suspended early in the season after he was being tattooed by the Tigers for "sticky stuff". Scherzer's best days (like Verlander) are definitely behind him.

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I'm sorry I thought you were talking about when he was traded last season for Luisangel Acuna.

Oh yes, Scherzer was very good in 21 and 22 (for that matter). Last season not so much. I remember him being suspended early in the season after he was being tattooed by the Tigers for "sticky stuff". Scherzer's best days (like Verlander) are definitely behind him.

I was talking about last year too. He was one of the top pitchers available and he was acquired for much less than Kjerstad. The larger point is that Kjerstad can get us a good pitcher. It is not necessary to trade from the top three.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But he’s been a TOR guy who eats innings and has excellent ERAs.  He’s not devalued at all in baseball circles.  I am devaluing him because I want different traits that I feel are better suited for the postseason especially.

I would argue that statcast numbers and more advanced data is how most of the industry now values players. Just like at the fans/posters on this site that use "peripherals" in believing that we can acquire player X and get value out of them.

I believe with the advancements in technology and the use of data science in all professional sports, access to those things (and MUCH MORE) is extremely common. IMO talent evaluators and decision makers are looking at those things to evaluate players even more than they are looking at traditional counting stats like ERA, innings pitched, or quality starts.

By the way, I am not saying that Webb is not valued at all. But I am saying that there COULD be some "devaluing" going on with him because of his peripherals. 

Either he is a MUCH BETTER pitcher than Cole Irvin and I would love it if the O's were able to acquire him. I believe that he is locked up for several seasons after this one and would give us some top end protection if Burnes were to leave in FA after the season.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I was talking about last year too. He was one of the top pitchers available and he was acquired for much less than Kjerstad. The larger point is that Kjerstad can get us a good pitcher. It is not necessary to trade from the top three.

He wasn't that good for the Mets last year. He had an ERA around 4 and had been suspended earlier in the year because of his reliance of a gripping agent (sticky stuff) while pitching (knowing he was being checked after every inning like all pitchers are now).

Scherzer is/was (last season) a pitcher who was more reputation from his past than actual present production.

As far a Kjerstad or Mayo or Basallo, I don't know or have access to how team's value each. I will say this, re-signing Santander to the reasonable contract that he will command in FA would make one/maybe two redundant and allow us to go "big game hunting".

IMO the Yankees (and most likely Phillies) are not going to stand pat at the deadline. We are going to need to improve our team in our two areas of weakness for the postseason - number 2/3 starter (depending on where Grayson slots) and closer. IMO this will give us the best chance to be better than all of the other teams that we will face, have the least weaknesses, and be reliant on the least amount of luck.

Also a pitcher like Webb (preferably) but also Gray helps us beyond this season. Crochet does too but also comes with greater injury risk and a possible innings limitation.

[Uli2001]

All three (Holiday, Basallo, Mayo) are what they are: prospects. They are not Henderson, Rutschman, or Westburg, who are realities. Let's not treat them the same as those guys, nor assume that they will be those guys in two years, because it isn't a guaranteed thing.

So if a deal presents itself that can help the Orioles win the World Series this year, they have to consider it. This could be THE YEAR. You have to go for it now, not wait two years for something that may not materialize.

[Just Regular]

42 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Is Scherzer sill a "good pitcher"?

A lot of mental energy will be devoted to this in the next month, perhaps especially by the Orioles.

Burnes is just another brick in the wall following Verlander, Cole and Greinke.     The Orioles current executives know who the best are and it isn't Scott Feldman unless you just need a bridge to cover a couple years while you are tanking.

Verlander and Scherzer know they are trying out for the best teams if their incumbent teams fail, and we saw their actions a year ago if ownership/GM signals an undesireable strategic direction in late July.     Scherzer's the one who also would be a 2025 guy.

It has grown in entertainment value in retrospect it was Luhnow's Astros who took Feldman away with a multi-year contract of all things.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

A lot of mental energy will be devoted to this in the next month, perhaps especially by the Orioles.

Burnes is just another brick in the wall following Verlander, Cole and Greinke.     The Orioles current executives know who the best are and it isn't Scott Feldman unless you just need a bridge to cover a couple years while you are tanking.

Verlander and Scherzer know they are trying out for the best teams if their incumbent teams fail, and we saw their actions a year ago if ownership/GM signals an undesireable strategic direction in late July.     Scherzer's the one who also would be a 2025 guy.

It has grown in entertainment value in retrospect it was Luhnow's Astros who took Feldman away with a multi-year contract of all things.

I'm most often confused by your writing/posting style. What does Scott Feldman have to do with Corbin Burnes other than they both pitched for the Orioles at some point?

Also, Verlander and Scherzer are has beens at this point. Their best days are behind them and the end is very near for both. I don't want the Orioles going anywhere near either one especially not in 2025.

[Bemorewins]

18 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

All three (Holiday, Basallo, Mayo) are what they are: prospects. They are not Henderson, Rutschman, or Westburg, who are realities. Let's not treat them the same as those guys, nor assume that they will be those guys in two years, because it isn't a guaranteed thing.

So if a deal presents itself that can help the Orioles win the World Series this year, they have to consider it. This could be THE YEAR. You have to go for it now, not wait two years for something that may not materialize.

I believe that there is some truth in what you state in the bolded. The problem is that you are talking to a brick wall with a point like that on this message board.

For much of this message board, it represents the die hardest of the die hard fans. These are people/fans who stuck with the team through the absolute thinnest of times (2018- 2021). Many/most have gotten used to a fan experience that values these prospects as much or in some cases more than they value winning at the Major League level or even trying to chase a World Series or more.

 

[Birdland in NC]

For the present and future, I think we need to be trading for Major and minor-league pitchers, because I’m not counting on any of our TJ guys, including Bautista and Bradish to come back and be the same guy they were.  And I have no reason to think that some of our currently healthy pictures won’t need TJ the way things are going in this league.   Holiday, Mayo, they’re all on the table for the right return as far as I’m concerned. 

[Just Regular]

41 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I'm most often confused by your writing/posting style. What does Scott Feldman have to do with Corbin Burnes other than they both pitched for the Orioles at some point?

Also, Verlander and Scherzer are has beens at this point. Their best days are behind them and the end is very near for both. I don't want the Orioles going anywhere near either one especially not in 2025.

I wouldn't jump to that conclusion even if it has a fair probability of being accurate.    The puzzle for Elias is ALWC Game 3 - what if the Twins got Verlander or Scherzer and the matchup that day is Hall of Fame guy v. Cade Povich or Dean Kremer.      Everyone in baseball knows they can't do it 35 games like younger guys can, but can they still be great for 10?

Sometimes I over credit the community knowing Orioles lore.    Scott Feldman was a Jordan Lyles-Kyle Gibson-Cole Irvin type pitcher who briefly helped the 2013 Orioles just miss the playoffs.    He was okay, and some felt like the winter before 2014 we needed to keep him.    Jeff Luhnow did something Mike Elias hasn't yet and gave an ordinary pitcher a multi-year contract.     The 2014 Orioles were great.

I think you and I share the hope Elias will be going for more than ordinary next month.