Re-visiting Luzardo

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I didn't say Elias would agree to it.  I can just see teams (not necessarily the Marlins here, just anyone) coming to the negotiating table with him and upcharging because they see a contender that has some injury issues in the rotation. 

There’s going to be multiple teams in on all of these available pitchers.  The trading team’s job is to try and upcharge everyone and get the best deal.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Malike said:

His fastball is way down, his strikeouts are awful. He's had 2 IL stints for his elbow and back. He's probably the riskiest proposition to even finish the season healthy let alone be effective. 

Oh I agree he’s a risk. His FB velo jumped last year and while it’s down this year it’s much closer to his career velo.  And how much of the drop was/is due to injury?

I 100% agree that he’s a big risk but that big risk is also why I’m not trading any of the bigger names/higher ranked guys for him.

And getting Nardi here is big for the pen too (and I wouldn’t stop there at pitching acquisitions either)

[wildcard]

Instead of picking a pitcher(s) Elias wants:

It almost seems like we think Elias is shopping Norby, Beaver, Stowers, plus,  seeing who values them enough of give up pitching that is valuable to the O's.

Edited July 8 by wildcard

[Aristotelian]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Maybe?  It depends on who that pitcher is. 
 

The Os are going to coast to the playoffs and perhaps the division. The whole idea is to make your team as good as possible for the stretch run and into the playoffs. 
 

Fedde MAY (we have no idea if he will keep this up) be safer but do you feel comfortable with him starting game 3?

 

Fedde isn't the only one. Kickuchi, Eovaldi, Anderson, Bassitt, Lorenzen. Scherzer has some injury risk but is further removed from his than Luzardo will be. Same with Crochet, of course. 

If our doctor's think Luzardo's injury isn't likely to keep affecting him this year I would be on board, I just kinda doubt it. 

[sportsfan8703]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If he’s pitching well and healthy, he’s better than all of those guys. It’s a high risk/high reward play for the Os.

I hear you, but that doesn't sound like a move our Risk Adverse GM would want to make.  

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Instead of picking a pitcher(s) Elias wants:

It almost seems like we think Elias is shopping Norby, Beaver, Stowers, plus,  seeing who values them enough of give up pitching that is valuable to the O's.

That’s right.  Elias is only going to trade certain guys and get the pitcher he likes best that he can get with those guys.   No doubt he probably likes Skubal the best.  He’s just not going to pay the price.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I hear you, but that doesn't sound like a move our Risk Adverse GM would want to make.  

As a backup plan and for the next two years, ok.  As his big deal for a starter for the stretch run and playoffs.  No.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Fedde isn't the only one. Kickuchi, Eovaldi, Anderson, Bassitt, Lorenzen. Scherzer has some injury risk but is further removed from his than Luzardo will be. Same with Crochet, of course. 

If our doctor's think Luzardo's injury isn't likely to keep affecting him this year I would be on board, I just kinda doubt it. 

I don’t see Eovaldi being dealt, doubt we deal in division and don’t want Anderson or Lorenzen for free.

Scherzer yes but he also has to be ok to waive his NTC.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That’s right.  Elias is only going to trade certain guys and get the pitcher he likes best that he can get with those guys.   No doubt he probably likes Skubal the best.  He’s just not going to pay the price.

To me the "over/under" guy is Kjerstad. He looks really good right now but we have a lot of lefty hitters and corner outfielders at least through next year. Kjerstad could put us in play for some of the more elite names. 

[HowAboutThat]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That’s right.  Elias is only going to trade certain guys and get the pitcher he likes best that he can get with those guys.   No doubt he probably likes Skubal the best.  He’s just not going to pay the price.

This is exactly correct, and is arguably a flaw. The whole point of a deep farm is having lots of items to deal. It’s not going to take you very far to tell a team,”you can have anyone except the guys you really want.”

Thats why I doubt ME will make a significant acquisition. He doesn’t want to trade the big three. That’s not necessarily bad, but a lot hangs on what he can find on the clearance shelves.

I don’t want Luzardo at this price, and even if we got him, it would be foolish to expect him to get both get the season and produce effectively.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

This is exactly correct, and is arguably a flaw. The whole point of a deep farm is having lots of items to deal. It’s not going to take you very far to tell a team,”you can have anyone except the guys you really want.”

Thats why I doubt ME will make a significant acquisition. He doesn’t want to trade the big three. That’s not necessarily bad, but a lot hangs on what he can find on the clearance shelves.

I don’t want Luzardo at this price, and even if we got him, it would be foolish to expect him to get both get the season and produce effectively.

Most of what is available is on the clearance shelf.

[HowAboutThat]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Most of what is available is on the clearance shelf.

Mostly, but I don’t think Miller, Erceg, or a guy like Woo( assuming he’s available) is clearance. I also think ME isn’t even doing more than basic due diligence on those guys before pivoting away. 

I think we need to look more closely at Texas. I know you don’t like Lorenzen, Dunning has fallen apart, but Jon Gray is a possibility. His walk rate, k rate and HR rate are good, and he’s got one more year after this one.

Remember we don’t necessarily need to lift our ceiling, but our floor. If we can significantly improve on our current number three, that’s a plus.

Edited July 8 by HowAboutThat

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

Mostly, but I don’t think Miller, Erceg, or a guy like Woo( assuming he’s available) is clearance. I also think ME isn’t even doing more than basic due diligence on those guys before pivoting away. 

I think we need to look more closely at Texas. I know you don’t like Lorenzen, Dunning has fallen apart, but Jon Gray is a possibility. His walk rate, k rate and HR rate are good, and he’s got one more year after this one.

Remember we don’t necessarily need to lift our ceiling, but our floor. If we can significantly improve on our current number three, that’s a plus.

I have zero interest in raising our floor. That doesn’t help you in October.

We are in the playoffs. They aren’t missing them unless Burnes and GRod are done for the year.

So everything they do the rest of this year should be geared towards the absolute best roster possible in October. 

[RZNJ]

46 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

To me the "over/under" guy is Kjerstad. He looks really good right now but we have a lot of lefty hitters and corner outfielders at least through next year. Kjerstad could put us in play for some of the more elite names. 

I agree trading Kjerstad is borderline.  I suggested a Kjerstad led deal for Crochet.   Two problems.  Some people don’t think that’s enough and I’m still not confident Elias would do it even if it was enough.   

[wildcard]

50 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

To me the "over/under" guy is Kjerstad. He looks really good right now but we have a lot of lefty hitters and corner outfielders at least through next year. Kjerstad could put us in play for some of the more elite names. 

Though there are a lot of outfielders right now I am not sure there will be that many next year.   Santander, Hays and maybe even Mullins may not be on the team.   That leaves Kjerstad probably RF,   Cowser CF depending on if he hits.    

Norby, Stowers are probably traded.    Beavers and Fabian are not hitting that well at AA.   They could spend all season next year at AAA.  

I could see Mayo at 3B and Westburg in LF.  Not because Westburg isn't a good 3B but because of Mayo, Holliday and Westburg,  I think Westburg would be the best LFer.

So I don't really see Kjerstad as expendable.