Outfield PA the rest of the way

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Malike said:

This is good reading.

According to Tom Tango, MLB Senior Database Architect of Stats, expected stats were designed to only be descriptive. If the goal was to be predictive, they would have been designed differently. Expected stats tell you what the likely outcome should have been. They are not predictive so use them accordingly.

Properly Diving Into Expected Stats | Community Blog (fangraphs.com)

I feel that if the stat is intended to to descriptive, not predictive, then it’s pretty worthless.   Tango says if they were intended to be predictive, they would have been designed differently.  Then why the heck didn’t you do that?  Having a predictive stat would have been far more useful than a descriptive one that people misuse as predictive on a daily basis.   

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I feel that if the stat is intended to to descriptive, not predictive, then it’s pretty worthless.   Tango says if they were intended to be predictive, they would have been designed differently.  Then why the heck didn’t you do that?  Having a predictive stat would have been far more useful than a descriptive one that people misuse as predictive on a daily basis.   

But how can you make it predictive?

For example, a player hits a ball 110 MPH and it’s caught. The xBA is say 750 (just making up a number). But how do you predict that they will do that going forward?

Statcast data tells you what the players have done in terms of raw data but that doesn’t mean the player will keep showing those numbers month after month, season after season.

[RZNJ]

Sounds somewhat predictive.  Basically, in Cowser’s case, you’ve been unlucky.  IF you keep doing what you’ve been doing the results should improve.

[Aristotelian]

6 hours ago, LGOrioles said:

Hays has certainly hit a lot better lately but he is just feasting on LHP’s. His wRC+ against RHP’s is 73, so he should not be taking any AB’s away against RHP’s from Cowser (or Mullins/Kjerstad/Santander assuming they are all healthy). 

So much has been made about Cowser’s offense (for good reason) that it seems like the fact that he’s been the best defensive player on the team on a per game basis gets lost. With his defense and base running value, he doesn’t even have to be a great hitter to be valuable, like Kjerstad. His floor is closer to Mullins, yet it seems like he’s judged very differently. Put another way, if Mullins had Cowser’s overall offensive line right now, with his exit velo’s and quality of contact, nobody would be calling for him to lose playing time.

It just seems odd that a rookie that has been so good defensively and has so many good offensive qualities (average exit velocity, chase rate, barrel %) is getting so much heat right now. He definitely does need to be better with RISP and in high leverage situations, and shouldn’t get an unlimited leash, but he’s not going to get better unless he keeps getting chances to work things out. And if he does work things out (as we saw in April) or even can replicate his season line to date the rest of the way, he’s likely the most valuable OF’er on the team. 

The problems I see:

1. Cowser has some glaring red flags that counter his positive attributes. I love the plate discipline and swing decisions, but the strikeout rate is unacceptable. Almost 30% of his AB's end up without the ball put in play. It is possible to be productive with a high K approach but I'm not sure Cowser has enough power to offset the K's. 

2. So far his production has all been concentrated in one month. The other months (including his debut) have been consistently bad. I think if you had three .750 months and one .500 we might look post one bad month. Instead, you have what could be one outlier month before teams figured him out. Maybe he counter-adjusts but until then it's hard to know what to make of one monster month.

Seems like his ceiling is more Colby Rasmus than Kyle Tucker. Rasmus did put up 20 WAR over his career with a couple of .800+ seasons but he struck out a ton and never really figured out lefties. Tucker struggled when he first came up at age 21 but was producing consistently by age 23 whereas Cowser is 24.

 

[LGOrioles]

24 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The problems I see:

1. Cowser has some glaring red flags that counter his positive attributes. I love the plate discipline and swing decisions, but the strikeout rate is unacceptable. Almost 30% of his AB's end up without the ball put in play. It is possible to be productive with a high K approach but I'm not sure Cowser has enough power to offset the K's. 

2. So far his production has all been concentrated in one month. The other months (including his debut) have been consistently bad. I think if you had three .750 months and one .500 we might look post one bad month. Instead, you have what could be one outlier month before teams figured him out. Maybe he counter-adjusts but until then it's hard to know what to make of one monster month.

Seems like his ceiling is more Colby Rasmus than Kyle Tucker. Rasmus did put up 20 WAR over his career with a couple of .800+ seasons but he struck out a ton and never really figured out lefties. Tucker struggled when he first came up at age 21 but was producing consistently by age 23 whereas Cowser is 24.

 

The strikeout rate is very high but there’s still a handful of players that K more than him that are productive (Marsh, O’Neill, Busch and then some outliers due to their size such as Stanton, Cruz, and De La Cruz). It would be great if he cuts down on the K’s, but even at his current K rate, he should be able to produce if he continues making quality contact. 

You’re right that he’s really only had one good month, but even taking that into account he is at a 95 wRC+ in his career. Since his debut, he’s been worth 1.8 WAR in 355 PA’s. In that same timeframe, Hays has been worth 0.8 WAR in 414 PA’s and Mullins has been worth 0.8 WAR in 468 PA’s. So with one good month and about 20% less playing time, he’s been worth a win more than the 2 guys that would potentially take AB’s away from him. I would certainly rather continue giving more AB’s to the rookie who has been better overall the last calendar year (even though it’s really only been one good month) and has much higher upside, in hopes he makes some adjustments at the plate. 

Rasmus is a pretty good offensive comp, but Cowser will likely walk more and at least right now, he is providing a lot more defensive value which will push up his WAR totals. 

Edited July 9 by LGOrioles

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The problems I see:

1. Cowser has some glaring red flags that counter his positive attributes. I love the plate discipline and swing decisions, but the strikeout rate is unacceptable. Almost 30% of his AB's end up without the ball put in play. It is possible to be productive with a high K approach but I'm not sure Cowser has enough power to offset the K's. 

2. So far his production has all been concentrated in one month. The other months (including his debut) have been consistently bad. I think if you had three .750 months and one .500 we might look post one bad month. Instead, you have what could be one outlier month before teams figured him out. Maybe he counter-adjusts but until then it's hard to know what to make of one monster month.

Seems like his ceiling is more Colby Rasmus than Kyle Tucker. Rasmus did put up 20 WAR over his career with a couple of .800+ seasons but he struck out a ton and never really figured out lefties. Tucker struggled when he first came up at age 21 but was producing consistently by age 23 whereas Cowser is 24.

 

Yea, I agree that Cowser isn’t likely to be one of the top 5-10 players in the sport. I think we should trade him then!

[Rbiggs2525]

People do know Aaron Judge strikeout rate is 28-30% for his career and never lower than 25%? Judge has put up a 994 career OPS with that rate. It’s also Cowser rookie year and Hyde hasn’t been kind to him. Seems like Hyde prefers him against the tough lefty assignment over Mullins. His last 4 starts were against 2 LHP, Kirby and Miller. There are also instances this year where he faced Blanco and Valdez but sat first game vs easy RHP. He faced Fried and Lopez and sat against Braves RHP with 8 ERA.

[eddie83]

Knock on wood nobody has been hurt since Hays early in the year.  
 

Kjerstad is pushing down Cowser’s playing time clearly. 

[LGOrioles]

52 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

People do know Aaron Judge strikeout rate is 28-30% for his career and never lower than 25%? Judge has put up a 994 career OPS with that rate. It’s also Cowser rookie year and Hyde hasn’t been kind to him. Seems like Hyde prefers him against the tough lefty assignment over Mullins. His last 4 starts were against 2 LHP, Kirby and Miller. There are also instances this year where he faced Blanco and Valdez but sat first game vs easy RHP. He faced Fried and Lopez and sat against Braves RHP with 8 ERA.

Gunnar also was striking out nearly 3% more than Cowser through this many PA’s last year. It’s not the exact same situation, but Cowser could easily improve his K rate as well, which he already has. It was 33.7% through 4/29 and has been at 27.2% since. He only has a .230 BABIP in that time frame so his wRC+ is 78, but he would be close to a league average hitter with a near league average BABIP. To go along with being the best defensive OF’er on the team. That’s a valuable player. 

[eddie83]

 

[Malike]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I feel that if the stat is intended to to descriptive, not predictive, then it’s pretty worthless.   Tango says if they were intended to be predictive, they would have been designed differently.  Then why the heck didn’t you do that?  Having a predictive stat would have been far more useful than a descriptive one that people misuse as predictive on a daily basis.   

The article says that is what his Marcel Projections are for.  It also says the best way to tell if a player is having a breakout as a hitter, barrel and chase are the best predictors and K/BB rate is the best for pitchers.

[Malike]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

But how can you make it predictive?

For example, a player hits a ball 110 MPH and it’s caught. The xBA is say 750 (just making up a number). But how do you predict that they will do that going forward?

Statcast data tells you what the players have done in terms of raw data but that doesn’t mean the player will keep showing those numbers month after month, season after season.

Cowser has two important things going for him for predictive stats in barrel and chase, they are both excellent, I think the problem right now is the whiff and K% that is holding him back. The article talks about the quantity of contact and despite him having excellent barrels and chase rates he's simply just whiffing and punching out too much. I don't know if it's because of pitch type or handedness of pitchers and I'm on the way out so I can't dig too much, but there are definitely some promising things ahead if he can put more balls in play.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Malike said:

Cowser has two important things going for him for predictive stats in barrel and chase, they are both excellent, I think the problem right now is the whiff and K% that is holding him back. The article talks about the quantity of contact and despite him having excellent barrels and chase rates he's simply just whiffing and punching out too much. I don't know if it's because of pitch type or handedness of pitchers and I'm on the way out so I can't dig too much, but there are definitely some promising things ahead if he can put more balls in play.

I disagree with that thought…well, sort of at least.

The whiff rate and K rate will likely keep him from being high average hitter (if he doesn’t fix that aspect of his game).

however, I think he will still walk a lot and cause a lot of damage..in other words, he may hit 240 but I think a 340-360 OBP with a 450-500 slugging is very possible.

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I disagree with that thought…well, sort of at least.

The whiff rate and K rate will likely keep him from being high average hitter (if he doesn’t fix that aspect of his game).

however, I think he will still walk a lot and cause a lot of damage..in other words, he may hit 240 but I think a 340-360 OBP with a 450-500 slugging is very possible.

That's certainly possible. This chart supports that, but he would probably need to walk a bit more than he is now.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

That's certainly possible. This chart supports that, but he would probably need to walk a bit more than he is now.

As he causes more damage, the walks will increase. He has a good approach and is a pretty disciplined hitter.