Offer Anthony Santander 3 year 60 million contract

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, SteveA said:

Yeah, he has earned about $27 million in his career so far, through the end of this year.

Assuming the contract he signs next will take him to until he is 34+, it ls likely he will not earn much after (Adam Jones earned nothing in US baseball after the age of 34;  Nick Markakis earned $10 million after the age of 34;  Johnny Damon $27M;  Jose Bautista $33M, Matt Kemp basically nothing).

It is very likely that the one contract Santander signs next will account for well over half the money he earns in his entire lifetime.   He will (and should) take as much as he can get.

Jones made a few $million in Japan at 34-35, but the point stands. Santander will almost certainly not get a big contract after this one unless he finds Nelson Cruz' magical fountain of youth.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Somehow I don't think the FA demand for Santander will all that high. His value is tied up in SLG which will likely be one of the first skills to degrade as he ages. He doesn't walk a lot and his defense is about average. Don't get me wrong, I'd love him to be on this team the next two years but after that I expect there to be a steep decline in his performance. I don't expect him to turn in to José Abreu, but I think a lot of prospective teams will have that concern in the back of their minds. 

Speed and defense are the first things to decline as a player ages. Then it's often health and availability. For Santander that means he'll probably keep hitting home runs at about the rate he has throughout his career, but he'll hit .228 and only play 110 games a year, frequently as a DH.

[Sports Guy]

I think what they do with Kjerstad will determine this. In a lot of ways, he makes the most sense of anyone to trade 

[GuidoSarducci]

Looking at the contracts that have been handed out over the last 3 years, I wouldn't be surprised if 3/60 is the highest offer.

$/WAR has actually been trending down.  https://www.paraballnotes.com/blog/the-trend-in-war-for-free-agents If you figure Santander at a 3 WAR player, then at $20m AAV that is $6.7M / WAR / year, which is what it was last year.  The year before it was actually lower.

Of course this all varies widely ad some desperate team that has a hole and wanted to make a playoff push may throw more $ / years.
 

[G54377]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think we go with Cowser and Kjerstad in the corners next year with Mullins in CF.  Take the comp pick  I just hope Santa signs with an NL team.  Giants?  Mets?

Lumbering slugger who doesn't really run or play defense sounds like Met.

[OnlyOneOriole]

This is a no brainer.  I will bring up Cruz as a comp since so many haters  want to use Trumbo as their comp.

Trumbo had zero athletic ability other than the ability to pull a ball and hit a HR.

AS is a Nelson Cruz clone.

AS is 100 x the athlete that Trumbo was.  AS will be the same imo.  If you think Heston will be anywhere close to AS's value in the next 3 years?

Please share with me what he has done to prove that?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

This is a no brainer.  I will bring up Cruz as a comp since so many haters  want to use Trumbo as their comp.

Trumbo had zero athletic ability other than the ability to pull a ball and hit a HR.

AS is a Nelson Cruz clone.

AS is 100 x the athlete that Trumbo was.  AS will be the same imo.  If you think Heston will be anywhere close to AS's value in the next 3 years?

Please share with me what he has done to prove that?

What makes you think Cruz was a better athlete than Trumbo was?

He was slower than Trumbo, he wasn't a better fielder than Trumbo.

Cruz was listed at 6'2" 230 and Trumbo was 6'4" 225.

Santander is trending toward being slower than either by the time he gets to their prospective ages.

I'm honestly confused why you think Cruz was this special athlete.  He was a roided out DH.

 

 

 

I'm not saying that Santander's season isn't better than any season Trumbo had.

[OnlyOneOriole]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What makes you think Cruz was a better athlete than Trumbo was?

He was slower than Trumbo, he wasn't a better fielder than Trumbo.

Cruz was listed at 6'2" 230 and Trumbo was 6'4" 225.

Santander is trending toward being slower than either by the time he gets to their prospective ages.

I'm honestly confused why you think Cruz was this special athlete.  He was a roided out DH.

 

 

 

I'm not saying that Santander's season isn't better than any season Trumbo had.

I don't think Cruz was a special athlete.  At all.   He was better than Trumbo but he wasn't a great athlete.

And neither do I think AS is either. 

But from me watching Cruz with the Os, especially in the playoffs?  He was the one guy that when he came up to bat I thought to myself, "this guy is clutch".   He has a talent for being better than most when it matters the most.

And he proved that for the next 6 years after. 

I get that exact same feel from AS.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, OnlyOneOriole said:

I don't think Cruz was a special athlete.  At all.   He was better than Trumbo but he wasn't a great athlete.

And neither do I think AS is either. 

But from me watching Cruz with the Os, especially in the playoffs?  He was the one guy that when he came up to bat I thought to myself, "this guy is clutch".   He has a talent for being better than most when it matters the most.

And he proved that for the next 6 years after. 

I get that exact same feel from AS.

Huh?

Quote

AS is 100 x the athlete that Trumbo was

So AS is 100 times the athlete Trumbo was but still isn't a great athlete.

You think someone can have the ML career Trumbo did and not have a shred of athletic talent?

As for Cruz in the playoffs, what did he do other than cost the Rangers a ring?

For his career, over 12 playoff series, he was at + 5.4% cWPA (-4.2 in the WS).  Trumbo managed to get up to 1.6% in his one post season appearance.

How many rings did Captain Clutch bring home for his teams?  I think at the end of the day it was -1.

[OnlyOneOriole]

I am not arguing with you over this....again.... because you are bored.

I have made my pov on AS many many times on here.  He should be resigned. 

I will leave it at that. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, OnlyOneOriole said:

I am not arguing with you over this....again.... because you are bored.

I have made my pov on AS many many times on here.  He should be resigned. 

I will leave it at that. 

So you know you have no evidence to support your claims.

Cool.

Not that I expected better.

[terpoh]

4 hours ago, StottyByNature said:

You don't pay for a career year.  I love Santander but this would be a buy-high scenario.  I don't know what our bottom line budget is but giving a good chunk of it to a guy heading into his 30's is not a smart move, as painful as it will be to let him walk.

Look at his last three years. I wouldnt call this a career year. He has been trending up.

[Three Run Homer]

I have no problem with keeping Santander on a reasonable contract.  I also would be happy to keep Kjerstad and O'Hearn.

But we can't keep all three.   One of them must go this off-season.  Logjams do not resolve themselves.  

[DrungoHazewood]

6 hours ago, vab said:

I think let him go then I think Nelson Cruz. I also think there's something to be said for re-signing a fan favorite and a guy who I think is developing into a real team leader, especially for the Latin guys and there's a very important one coming in Basallo. A 3/$60 deal would be great but I don't think that gets it done. I'd go as high 3/$70 but probably not beyond that. 

I've said it at the time, and probably 100 times since: If I were interviewing GM candidates one of the first easy, softball questions I'd throw their way is "what would you do with a popular player, aged 33, coming off a career year in a walk year?" If the answer is anything but "tread exceptionally carefully, and only offer a contract that's either very team-friendly or with some kind of team opt out" they're not getting the job.

It was the correct choice to not sign Nelson Cruz. Give me 20 players with Cruz' profile and 19 of them will be very bad investments. The fact that Cruz wasn't doesn't change that at all.

Similar thing applies to Santander, except that he's a few years younger.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Three Run Homer said:

But we can't keep all three.   One of them must go this off-season.  Logjams do not resolve themselves.  

Says a fan of a team that just lost Jordan Westburg for the regular season, freeing up playing time for Jackson Holliday.

I wouldn't guarantee that the logjam won't resolve itself.